jonathanvn

Scenarios & Key Zones for Bitcoin in 2021 (1W)

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
6 months ago I made an idea about my personal subjective perspective of BTC after the COVID market crash.
The analysis is linked in Related Ideas. In general the analysis was pretty accurate and effective.
This idea is a follow up on the previous idea and where to look out for in 2021 with BTC:

Again I'm writing this in neither a bullish or bearish way. I added LONG to the idea because I'm personally bullish on Bitcoin for 2021.

Quick keypoints from previous analysis in May:
  • For 3 months price consolidated at the resistance of the triangle I indicated on the chart with a blue line.
  • Later it broke out to my demand zone where price consolidated and corrected.
  • Price is going towards the last resistance line for 2020.

What happened recently:
  • This week BTC performed extremely well on lower timeframes.
  • Couple continuation patterns on timeframes between H1 and H4 caused a strong breakout backed by good volume .
  • BTC made a new 2020 high (previous high was 5 aug 2019) and looks strong and bullish .

On this chart:
As you can see I indicated somewhat current trend resistance and support. This is the least strong resistance/support on the chart and can be taken lightly.
However it would be very healthy to correct at this price and retest the previous resistance as support now and climb back up.

Indicators:
Blue line is 50SMA & green line is 21SMA which are both acting as support now. Personally these aren't important indicators since I purely speculate on price action and technicals in crypto.
However 21SMA is showing reliable support since the crash.

Technical:
The high I talked about earlier is marked on the chart with a small black line.
Personally I don't think this is a big specific resistance zone because price didn't consolidated in this zone back in '19. Even on Daily chart the wicks are very high which means a volatile market.
It could help either as little resistance or support on breakout and it starts to correcting and retesting this level.

The next zone up is way more important and is the biggest supply zone on the chart. In case BTC would lose momentum and buyers are taking off this could be a good moment for bears to jump in and bring price down a little. It's also very well placed and a correction would be much better here than just a plain break trough without consolidating or correcting.
If we consolidate here we could build support for later.

The All Time High of nearly 20K is marked on the chart and is the ultimate goal to break for bulls. Since alot of HODLers bought bitcoin back at this zone in 2017 (data from glassnode: HODLers wallets) they could strive for breakeven and sell their stack here and pull price back down.
But a high FOMO wave striking through this zone as realistic as the previous statement.

These are my key zones to watch for BTCUSD in the end of 2020 and especially for 2021. Trade the lower timeframes but be aware of these bigger zones.
Check out my previous idea for extra understanding on my analysis and perspective.

Comment: Price Action Resistance broken on second candle & price is consolidating at high of '19 level. If the candle closes above this level ($14.4k+) with higher volume, then this is a bullish signal with possibly major price movement. Else it's most probable to retest first support/demand zone ($12k). (Looking very, very bullish on smaller TF!)

Comments

nice idea
+1 Reply
Bitcoin Parabolic Move To Continue HIGHER
Reply
jonathanvn MartyBoots
@MartyBoots, I Agree with the parabolic move. I'm curious if the volatility stays and breaks the high of '19 without losing its volatility
Reply
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