TradingShot

BITCOIN $7340 Target hit. Bounce to $8000 or sell-off to $6000?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Again yet another decline on Bitcoin had traders surprised. We shouldn't be surprised. The signs were there illustrated by very precise indicators.

Clear Sell Signals like the LMACD cross signal while the price was still trading at $9200:


Or the more recent where the former Support turned into a Resistance, the 4H MA50 kept the Lower High trend line intact and BTC repeated exactly the sell off before pre-President Xi's pump:


Even after President's Xi pump, we had very solid patterns from the past showing that such a candle formation normally leads to a decline:



So I don't find it productive for people to claim that yesterday's price drop wasn't expected. Now let's focus on what the current patterns at hand can show us regarding the next moves.

*Stick to the LMACD for short term trading*
Well what is more natural than keep following a pattern that has been providing accurate Buy/ Sell Signals since the late June $13800 top? Personally I believe that if you are a short term trader you should continue using the LMACD indicator. I have analyzed this extensively on a previous study but allow me to repeat it. This indicator right before it makes a Bearish Crossover (indicated with the red arrow) the convergence of the two lines (red shape) provides the ideal Sell Entry. Similarly right before it makes a Bullish Crossover (green arrow) the convergence of the two lines (green shape) provides the ideal Buy Entry.

At the moment the LMACD is on the bearish territory but still with no indication of a Bottom or naturally a Buy Signal. In fact the MA lines are far from converging yet so first we need to wait for them to move closer and right before the Bullish Crossover (blue line over orange) enter a buy. This is only for the short term. Potential target? $8000 seems fair as it is well above the middle line of the Channel and by the time of the crossover, will also be close to the Lower High trend line of the Channel.


*Attention for the long term, $6000 even $5000 can be possible*
The above LMACD scenario is assuming the Channel Down, that started on the June top, will hold. If it breaks lower (cross below the Lower Low trend line which is designated on the chart by the red shape) then the pattern is invalidated and an aggressive gap fill to $6000 even $5000 may take place, which is essentially the long term Buy Zone of the parabolic growth pattern. This was clearly analyzed on the following idea:



So what do you think? Will you rely your short term trades on the so far accurate LMACD indicator and trade within the Channel Down or will wait for a stronger sell-off towards $6000 and unleash the long term buys? Let me know in the comments section!

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P.S. See below additional material related to a potential drop to the 6-5k levels:






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This was an easy trade to spot. $7500 was my entry to short.
+1 Reply
TradingShot TelecomTycoon
@TelecomTycoon, Well done.
Reply
Hi.
I had predicted the sinking well before.
The following diagrams show what I said.
+1 Reply
alimannn alimannn
Reply
alimannn alimannn
Reply
alimannn alimannn
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@alimannn, Thumbs up Ali!
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alimannn TradingShot
@TradingShot, Thanks my friend.
Reply
Good chart
+1 Reply
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