BITCOIN - Which Scenario Is More Favorable??

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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After the bullish "Engulfing" candlestick pattern on the daily chart (which is the rare case, in the current market) on 31. Oct; BTC' price has made a pretty beautiful climb upwards with clear short-term higher highs and higher lows printed on the chart. I didn't put this on the chart (too much noise) but currently, on the H4 chart, the 50 & 100 EMA makes a golden cross which will indicate that we might see a continuation movement up to the next targets.
To talk about the next targets (and the perfect scenario, everybody loves perfect scenarios) then those are the daily 100 EMA which should act as a resistance ($6,687), a little throwback (movement downwards) and bounce from the current trendline to the short-term major target at $6,767!

Let me say at first that I'm bullish and currently, there are two continuation scenarios - the green scenario and the red scenario:

The green scenario:
After some waiting, the price managed to break above the psychological/round number $6,500. This move actually makes me bullish because of the important price level break and a new higher high has printed on the chart. Currently, it has found a resistance from the orange minor trendline , several times it has worked as a resistance and so as now. It has a SLIGHT break above the trendline , but not so significant that we can count this a break but the EMA golden cross, the momentum and the overall bullishness may guide us to the Daily EMA 100 level at $6,687 which should act as a short-term resistance. From there, a small throwback to the orange trendline which starts to work as a support and from there the bounce upwards to the major target $6,767.
To get a continuation move upwards right away, we need a support from altcoins. Currently, they make a little throwback - even then when BTC' made a pretty important upwards breakout. Let's say this with a funny tone, they have to let out some steam after yesterday's "rally"!
So, if we want to see a continuation move we have to get support from the altcoins and we need that move pretty soon.

The red scenario:
Let's take this altcoin throwback as a sign that also BTC' want's to let out of some steam before it makes next leg upwards. The last 4H candle closes as a "Doji" or as a small "Spinning top" on the orange trendline and it could be the indication that the movement downwards may start. As You know, I'm bullish and then I start to look where to enter into the market. From my point of view, the perfect area would be around the round number $6,500:
- Different FIB levels should act as a support
- Round number itself should act as a support
- and it would be also a perfect retest area after today's breakout above the $6,500
So, this scenario is actually a little bit more favorable because of the altcoins throwback but currently as I write this, they start to show some growing signs and - cannot prefer one to another.

If I start to see a bearish (completely bearish ) signs then I definitely keep You posted. To say this, then a close below the $6,500 and below the $6,460 makes me cautious because of the lower low possibilities!

Hopefully, this breakdown helps You out a little bit to confirm Your own analysis!

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Thank You for your support, I really really appreciate it!

Have a nice day!

*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Comment: Another 4H candle close and another rejection from orange trendline (3x) and from FIB extension level 127%. Those rejections will be a sign that we start to follow the red scenario because altcoins are still in the waiting mode and I can't read out any signs from there. So, just in case, prepare for a little throwback to $6,530-$6,500!

Leave a comment with your thoughts and hit the LIKE button if You appreciate my work!
'See' You soon!
Comment: Hello!
Currently, as I said, we try to go upwards by red scenario. At the moment we got an exact bounce from the mentioned level:
- Round number $6,500
- FIBO retracement 62%
- EMA 100 act as a support
Only considerable sign comes from altcoins, they don't want to show us some growing signs yet but let's see what we get from next hours.
The platform is perfect to go upwards but it could take some time because, as You know, the market moves in slow-motion!

Leave a comment with your thoughts and if You find this is helpful then hit the LIKE!
Have a nice day!
Comment: Currently, it goes as the red scenario has drawn. The throwback from orange trendline, rejection from $6,500 and now we fight with a short-term counter trendline. If this break then we will see a movement upwards, do be a bigger movement we need support from altcoins. At the moment they give us mixed signs, some of them make decent climbs but others just wait in the good bounce area and those waiters make me bit cautious.
So, if You see a break above the counter trendline and if You see that most of the altcoins start to climb on the daily profits, then it is pretty safe bet that the climb may continue from there, currently it closes slightly below the trendline and we have to wait for another hour!
Comment: NEW IDEA POST: Watch where You have to leave on the market when the short-term bullish market turns into bearish!
Nothing about Bitcoin is favorable at this time. It's only favorable to those who got in early. It would probably be best to avoid trading it for now.
Interesting short term analysis Vaido. While historic volatility provides us with three possible bullish outcomes on the long run, we still don't think that the bottom is priced yet:

Tha last waves have 0.618 correction and are moving in ascending channel. The ETH will move with BTC (i hope). They are in the same pattern, have the same correction and the same hidden bullish divergence.

how did you get in the TOP? omg.
+1 Reply
VaidoVeek niceryders
@niceryders, The same codes as GTA5, try it!
+2 Reply
niceryders VaidoVeek
@VaidoVeek, I don't do GTA, I trade setups that make 40-80% per run, such as BATBTC below. You should look into it some day.
VaidoVeek niceryders
@niceryders, ROFL
+1 Reply
VaidoVeek niceryders
@niceryders, Sorry, good luck!
All the best!
+1 Reply
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