Currently, the BTC' price is almost in this bounce area where it should be if we want to see Bitcoin' in the weekend. I'm still with short-term bias before I don't have seen any confirmations ( confirmations are discussed later in this idea post)
After a bounce from $6,250 in the last Wednesday, it has made very nice climb upwards. On the , it has two throwback candles since then and yesterday we got the third one. Every time it has climbed more upwards after the throwback candle, let's see how it goes at this time. Yesterday's candle close was below the $6,500 which will be the first sign but do not panic, all is under the control (at the moment). This candle close was the ugliest above mentioned three throwback candles but we still have pretty good support levels under the current price level to support the price do not fall deeper.
As You see on the chart then we have a very clean upwards channel - touch and bounce, touch and bounce. Currently, the price makes the third touch and possibly it is ready to break above the $6,500.
The bounce criteria:
1. Channel bottom works as a support
2. FIB retracement level 38% should act as a support. It is also a perfect place to start the new leg if the market wants to stay in the momentum (pulled from 31. Oct low to 7 Nov. high)
3. Different timeframe EMA's matching exactly with area, which makes this area even stronger because of the criteria crossing.
4. Altcoins showing some nice climbs upwards, which will support current move upwards
5. Histogram starts to ticking upwards in the several timeframes
The targets would be:
1. $6,680 (Daily 100 and the channel upper crossing area)
2. $6,767 (Historically strong resistance - also the key level for the bulls)
3. $6,860 (Weekly 50 should act as a resistance)
As You have noticed, we are on the edge (not far from the confirmation area) and for that, I would like to give the area where You have to close Your trades or at least You have to minimize the risks. The confirmation area is the red box. If the 4H candle gets a close inside of this then we have several important 'breaks-below':
1. A candle close below the channel lower (basically a candle close outside the channel) which is also currently the short-term counter . If we get a close below that then it would be the first and bigger sign.
2. A candle close below the major support levels $6,500 and $6,460
3. A candle close inside or below this box makes a new short-term lower low (LL)
So those are the confirmations - this is pretty seriously said - if You see a candle close inside or below the box then stay away from the market. Basically stay in the market when the price is above the $6,460 and stay out if the price is below the mentioned level.
We might see a bounce from the Major counter (long-term counter )and the perfect FIB retracement pocket 62%-65% crossing area. Do enter the market around the mentioned area - around $6,360 - You have to watch price action, some pattern or massive volume!
Hopefully, this breakdown helps You out a little bit to confirm Your own analysis!
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Thank You for your support, I really really appreciate it!
Have a nice weekend!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Let's wait for this H candle close but I don't think that they could push the price up above the $6,460 level (which is the survival level). It would be the first sign because this is the 1H candle close but we have toooo much to the 4h candle close, So, we have to make decisions right away! Next update after 1H candle close.....
- Around FIB level
- Major counter trendline
- Last short-term HL, which should act as a support!
Only thing what could save us at the moment is a sudden spike upwards and we can count this as a bear trap but the bigger odds are the $6,350!
1h candle close, two 15 min consolidation candle and the third one gave us another leg downwards. Let's see how it goes today! Not a sign or something significant but still interesting to watch!
+ I noticed that the volume was almost equal on the 15 min chart. That the stop came so suddenly, looks like "they" don't want to see much lower prices!
Let's see, interesting, I learn and I grow with You!
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One thing that is certain, to beat this fat red area, we need a strong candle because historically it has only massive candle break upwards/downwards from this area AND if we get next bullish candle upwards which look alike as the last bearish candle, then BUY whatever You can (altcoins) because then it would be confirmed Bear trap and the climb may continue!
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Have a nice day!