Hello guys,
today I am back with an Elaboration on my previous Q2 Outlook ↓↓↓
With halving in front of us and all the hype it brings in, I can see mostly people who think that after halving we have to go to ATHs no matter what. So I decided to bring counter points to their views with reasonings as to Why I am currently more bearish than bullish. If you are interested in Why, you should definitely keep reading.
As I stated previously - "My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP.
That is because, as I mentioned in the Q1 Outlook:
"6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time comes -> 1. FED start cutting, 2. FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3. bottom Rate is found"" and to that statement, I would add today one more - 4. until FED start expanding their balance sheet/start printing money.
and my position in that still has not changed - Why?
Simply, nothing changed. Everything I was expecting to happen happened and Price is still doing exactly what I was expecting it to do. So no matter if there is halving or any other kind of narrative which may suggest that "if you don't jump in right now, you lose your opportunity", I will still stick with what in my opinion are real moving forces behind the markets - current economic environment and Central Banks agendas.
So, this is what happend in our prior case:
I believe the most important part of the whole process is the MONEY PRINTING PART (4b).
Today we have not even reached the Cutting process (1) yet. Some may say, that it should be a point for bull case scenario and I would agree. As I said, we may see a price rally until Cutting starts.
BUT I believe we need to pay attention as well to What happened before this process starts. If you break the chart down, you would see that the Price Topped & dropped Before Cutting started, in expectation of it happening. And that is exactly where we may be Today! I am not saying it has to happen the same as it did in our prior case, BUT I believe everyone should pay more attention to it. If you look closer at the chart, you can see that when Price starts to elevate, most of the time it takes Inflation with it. That is exactly opossum of what the is FED trying to achieve because it could bring even more pressure on the FED in their decision making.
Potentially it could cause a scenario in which we have still High Interest Rates but FED is unable to print money due to High inflation. That could cause a fear of recession or recession scare which is terrible for markets price wise, but it is as well a great buying opportunity at the same time.
So, until there is some significant development in the areas I mentioned, I would suggest to everyone to stay cautious!
Hopefully, this elaboration was helpful for some of you in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me.
Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive more predictions with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM.
Best Regards,
Joe
today I am back with an Elaboration on my previous Q2 Outlook ↓↓↓
With halving in front of us and all the hype it brings in, I can see mostly people who think that after halving we have to go to ATHs no matter what. So I decided to bring counter points to their views with reasonings as to Why I am currently more bearish than bullish. If you are interested in Why, you should definitely keep reading.
As I stated previously - "My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP.
That is because, as I mentioned in the Q1 Outlook:
"6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time comes -> 1. FED start cutting, 2. FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3. bottom Rate is found"" and to that statement, I would add today one more - 4. until FED start expanding their balance sheet/start printing money.
and my position in that still has not changed - Why?
Simply, nothing changed. Everything I was expecting to happen happened and Price is still doing exactly what I was expecting it to do. So no matter if there is halving or any other kind of narrative which may suggest that "if you don't jump in right now, you lose your opportunity", I will still stick with what in my opinion are real moving forces behind the markets - current economic environment and Central Banks agendas.
So, this is what happend in our prior case:
I believe the most important part of the whole process is the MONEY PRINTING PART (4b).
Today we have not even reached the Cutting process (1) yet. Some may say, that it should be a point for bull case scenario and I would agree. As I said, we may see a price rally until Cutting starts.
BUT I believe we need to pay attention as well to What happened before this process starts. If you break the chart down, you would see that the Price Topped & dropped Before Cutting started, in expectation of it happening. And that is exactly where we may be Today! I am not saying it has to happen the same as it did in our prior case, BUT I believe everyone should pay more attention to it. If you look closer at the chart, you can see that when Price starts to elevate, most of the time it takes Inflation with it. That is exactly opossum of what the is FED trying to achieve because it could bring even more pressure on the FED in their decision making.
Potentially it could cause a scenario in which we have still High Interest Rates but FED is unable to print money due to High inflation. That could cause a fear of recession or recession scare which is terrible for markets price wise, but it is as well a great buying opportunity at the same time.
So, until there is some significant development in the areas I mentioned, I would suggest to everyone to stay cautious!
Hopefully, this elaboration was helpful for some of you in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me.
Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive more predictions with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM.
Best Regards,
Joe
