The breakdown of 10500 was a clear sign that price will drop more .. price didn't bounce at all .. but as a holder who has early entries, is it the right time to get out now?! did we just lost the uptrend?
I asked my self a question: Is n't there a trend manipulation?
our aim to focus on the trend and not get lost due to market manipulation! .. exchanges/whales, doing very well moving the price on short term for their favor .. maybe liquidating heavy long/short before price make a big move to the other side ... I doubt THEY CAN CHANGE THE TREND DIRECTION!
In the past I lost a lot of money taking short term trades even when its good ones .. In Crypto market its very hard and so slow but if i still prefer to trade it then i decided its better to do it the right way which is less stress avoiding market manipulation and only focus on the trend!
Trade could takes months but i saved my self a ton of stress and losses. even when I turn to be wrong or make mistakes on short term like everyone. i will still get out with a nice ROE.
I was watching a lot of channels/services following most of professional traders and i didn't see anyone who is able to predict btc moves correctly most of times in anywhere! at the end it was my own choices/decisions!
I was not a professional trader and i am still learning .. changing my strategy in a risky market was a good choice for me. more so, stick to it and be patient ... at the end I am still on huge ROE no matter when i deiced to be out of the market ... but the question, is it right time now?!! or this is a trend manipulation ...... or there is no uptrend and this is just corrective wave up?!
It really depends on how much risk i am willing to take! it differ from one to another considering i am not willing to lose my mind because of trading!
I am ready to take the risk and be certain about my exist ... as a holder i would be mad if the price fly after my exist and i will be fine with less ROE if that didn't happen ... I am not bullish bias ... I am only trend bias and i will stick to my strategy.
I would like to clarify that i hold a good a mount of BTC since 3500 and 5000 in private wallet .. I did apply the same strategy on my BITMEX account with 20% of my capital that i used half of it at 3300 (x25) margin .. I was so calm, brave and lucky to open a massive amount of contracts with high leverage and less than 200 point a way of my entry to be liquidated. i added 25% more at 4900 and later the rest 25% at 7800 and 9500. My early entry did very well to keep my liquidation price far enough. at the moment its 6300
It was not easy to be so calm or be so patient when you are in x25 leverage or to not sell at every higher peaks .. instead of that we added more contracts after every correction! The difference from 14k ROE to now is massive but we seen that 2 times before and we treat it as just numbers not real money to avoid getting emotionally while taking serious decision about the TREND!
Now i know some will think, how i will hold such amount of positions for long period of time while maintain PNL and fees which is also play role with liquidation price. There is a nice trick for how to open contracts as a market maker ( not at market price ) that way you will get a rebate, when PREDICTED FUNDING RATE calculated periodically which differ all time since i am considered as a market maker. for Ex. my PNL was more than +1.3 btc and now its -1.1 btc ... Sometimes you can take fees not just pay fees! .. Yes
My current plan is to be patient .. to focus on 12H..1D..2D time frames at the moment ..
I have 3 scenarios in mind:
--price will start to recover and reverse from 9500
--price will retest 9100
--price will resume to drop and 9100 will be broken with a few hundreds to stop out everyone! Maybe 8800
I will RISK my exist point to be below 8700
=====================================
2D chart:
-once again price at 2017 channel support .. price could bounce from here but worst scenario is to fakeout the support the same way it did with the resistance.
-price touching 2d 50ema .. was it really needed before resuming up or will it hold the price? ..
-RSI 2D Hidden bull div confirmed with 2 previous lower low and price higher low at 5000 and 7500, so either 9100 double bottom was 3rd higher low or price will reach 8800 that will still show 3rd lower low on RSI.
-MACD also showing confirmed 2 lower low .. will we get the 3rd?
-bullish 2d Ichimoku and price still above cloud with strong support around 8800
1D chart:
-green support line on daily still holding and blue trend line could still be intact.
-the correction since 14k could be ABCDE instead of ABC
-price bounced from daily 100ema at 9500 .. I will start to doubt this is uptrend if price retrace to daily 200ema at 8200
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI on daily matching what we said on 2d chart.
12H:
-Price retraced to 200ema and bounced from there .. this could explain the first scenario
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI is near 30
4H:
-Either price will reverse or drop more there is still high possibility of this giant hidden bullish div on 4H with major low at 7500
1H:
-Its funny price started to jump since i started to write this post from 9500 to 10200 and its so interesting the way RSI showing how divergence did play out but i doubt this is just a bounce rather than a reverse.
>> This is my own view/plan and none of our ideas stand as financial advise OR buy/sell signals ... We are holder, we only trade the overall trend ... Trade at your own risk!!.... (you already know that)
I asked my self a question: Is n't there a trend manipulation?
our aim to focus on the trend and not get lost due to market manipulation! .. exchanges/whales, doing very well moving the price on short term for their favor .. maybe liquidating heavy long/short before price make a big move to the other side ... I doubt THEY CAN CHANGE THE TREND DIRECTION!
In the past I lost a lot of money taking short term trades even when its good ones .. In Crypto market its very hard and so slow but if i still prefer to trade it then i decided its better to do it the right way which is less stress avoiding market manipulation and only focus on the trend!
Trade could takes months but i saved my self a ton of stress and losses. even when I turn to be wrong or make mistakes on short term like everyone. i will still get out with a nice ROE.
I was watching a lot of channels/services following most of professional traders and i didn't see anyone who is able to predict btc moves correctly most of times in anywhere! at the end it was my own choices/decisions!
I was not a professional trader and i am still learning .. changing my strategy in a risky market was a good choice for me. more so, stick to it and be patient ... at the end I am still on huge ROE no matter when i deiced to be out of the market ... but the question, is it right time now?!! or this is a trend manipulation ...... or there is no uptrend and this is just corrective wave up?!
It really depends on how much risk i am willing to take! it differ from one to another considering i am not willing to lose my mind because of trading!
I am ready to take the risk and be certain about my exist ... as a holder i would be mad if the price fly after my exist and i will be fine with less ROE if that didn't happen ... I am not bullish bias ... I am only trend bias and i will stick to my strategy.
I would like to clarify that i hold a good a mount of BTC since 3500 and 5000 in private wallet .. I did apply the same strategy on my BITMEX account with 20% of my capital that i used half of it at 3300 (x25) margin .. I was so calm, brave and lucky to open a massive amount of contracts with high leverage and less than 200 point a way of my entry to be liquidated. i added 25% more at 4900 and later the rest 25% at 7800 and 9500. My early entry did very well to keep my liquidation price far enough. at the moment its 6300
It was not easy to be so calm or be so patient when you are in x25 leverage or to not sell at every higher peaks .. instead of that we added more contracts after every correction! The difference from 14k ROE to now is massive but we seen that 2 times before and we treat it as just numbers not real money to avoid getting emotionally while taking serious decision about the TREND!
Now i know some will think, how i will hold such amount of positions for long period of time while maintain PNL and fees which is also play role with liquidation price. There is a nice trick for how to open contracts as a market maker ( not at market price ) that way you will get a rebate, when PREDICTED FUNDING RATE calculated periodically which differ all time since i am considered as a market maker. for Ex. my PNL was more than +1.3 btc and now its -1.1 btc ... Sometimes you can take fees not just pay fees! .. Yes
My current plan is to be patient .. to focus on 12H..1D..2D time frames at the moment ..
I have 3 scenarios in mind:
--price will start to recover and reverse from 9500
--price will retest 9100
--price will resume to drop and 9100 will be broken with a few hundreds to stop out everyone! Maybe 8800
I will RISK my exist point to be below 8700
=====================================
2D chart:
-once again price at 2017 channel support .. price could bounce from here but worst scenario is to fakeout the support the same way it did with the resistance.
-price touching 2d 50ema .. was it really needed before resuming up or will it hold the price? ..
-RSI 2D Hidden bull div confirmed with 2 previous lower low and price higher low at 5000 and 7500, so either 9100 double bottom was 3rd higher low or price will reach 8800 that will still show 3rd lower low on RSI.
-MACD also showing confirmed 2 lower low .. will we get the 3rd?
-bullish 2d Ichimoku and price still above cloud with strong support around 8800
1D chart:
-green support line on daily still holding and blue trend line could still be intact.
-the correction since 14k could be ABCDE instead of ABC
-price bounced from daily 100ema at 9500 .. I will start to doubt this is uptrend if price retrace to daily 200ema at 8200
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI on daily matching what we said on 2d chart.
12H:
-Price retraced to 200ema and bounced from there .. this could explain the first scenario
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI is near 30
4H:
-Either price will reverse or drop more there is still high possibility of this giant hidden bullish div on 4H with major low at 7500
1H:
-Its funny price started to jump since i started to write this post from 9500 to 10200 and its so interesting the way RSI showing how divergence did play out but i doubt this is just a bounce rather than a reverse.
>> This is my own view/plan and none of our ideas stand as financial advise OR buy/sell signals ... We are holder, we only trade the overall trend ... Trade at your own risk!!.... (you already know that)
Comment:
4H RSI:
We had a massive hidden bearish div 13200 and 12200 tops that i totally ignored at that time although i noticed it but my bullish trend bias was challenged enough to not consider it ... now it really worth to mention since my all posts are about to learn either right/wrong .. I am glad that i am still learning while sharing!
But lets not ignore the massive hidden bullish div with previous major low at 7500 that could be in already ... either price will drop a little more or not ... that will even may led to a followed classic bull div on 4H chart and we saw that pattern before on different time frames that always led to a bounce or reverse.
We had a massive hidden bearish div 13200 and 12200 tops that i totally ignored at that time although i noticed it but my bullish trend bias was challenged enough to not consider it ... now it really worth to mention since my all posts are about to learn either right/wrong .. I am glad that i am still learning while sharing!
But lets not ignore the massive hidden bullish div with previous major low at 7500 that could be in already ... either price will drop a little more or not ... that will even may led to a followed classic bull div on 4H chart and we saw that pattern before on different time frames that always led to a bounce or reverse.
Comment:
1D: Cup & Handle
Price broke out 1h descending broadening wedge and it could be heading to next resistance at 10800 of this descending channel where also hourly 200ema located. If the price able to break out of this channel in the next few days ... cup and handle target is 15000.
If 1st scenario will play out as reversal that will mean ( 2d 50ema ... 1d 100ema ... 12h 200ema )>> test at 9500 was needed before resuming uptrend!
Price broke out 1h descending broadening wedge and it could be heading to next resistance at 10800 of this descending channel where also hourly 200ema located. If the price able to break out of this channel in the next few days ... cup and handle target is 15000.
If 1st scenario will play out as reversal that will mean ( 2d 50ema ... 1d 100ema ... 12h 200ema )>> test at 9500 was needed before resuming uptrend!
Trade active:
Daily BTC Chart: Still Show all this bullish signs..?! ( click to read )
Comment:
1H chart: show a possible bullish reversal ascending triangle that still in formation ... RSI has printed a hidden bull div after a complex classic bull div.
This will be INVALIDATED below 10000 ... the breakout above 10500 (where hourly 200ema located) will confirm the pattern targeting 11300 ... it will be also a confirmation for the breakout of descending channel (the cup handle) ... cup&handle and bull flag will be confirmed only above 12k.
This will be INVALIDATED below 10000 ... the breakout above 10500 (where hourly 200ema located) will confirm the pattern targeting 11300 ... it will be also a confirmation for the breakout of descending channel (the cup handle) ... cup&handle and bull flag will be confirmed only above 12k.
Trade active
Comment:
Price broke out the reversal ascending triangle as well as descending channel as expected .. hourly 200ema (around 10600) should serve as support.
Before the breakout we spotted inverse H&S on 4H RSI that was interesting .. it looks will play out, breakout occurred at RSI 50 targeting RSI 85 ... 4H hidden bull div did very well.
Now i believe we got a clear reversal signs and 9500 was reversal point (1st scenario) 10500 area should not break below to keep it valid.
The cup handle breakout (descending channel) is initial confirmation for the pattern and final confirmation will be only after 11500-12000 .. targeting 15000 area.
I had spent enough time before deciding this a cup&handle or not .. I did consider the following:
-cup depth and left side was higher than right side with a slope angle
-daily close was a hammer candlestick.
-handle usually (not always) goes to 50% ... less retrace is better bullish sign ... similar examples with more than 50% on the following links:
After all, we still said its A POSSIBLE pattern to keep a close eye on and we will get more confirmation within next days!
d1p5pyutve46t9.cloud...rtist-BT-475x293.jpg
forextraininggroup.c...Trading-Strategy.png
forextraininggroup.c...th-Handle-Signal.png
www.tradingsetupsrev...ndHandle-355x396.png
Before the breakout we spotted inverse H&S on 4H RSI that was interesting .. it looks will play out, breakout occurred at RSI 50 targeting RSI 85 ... 4H hidden bull div did very well.
Now i believe we got a clear reversal signs and 9500 was reversal point (1st scenario) 10500 area should not break below to keep it valid.
I had spent enough time before deciding this a cup&handle or not .. I did consider the following:
-cup depth and left side was higher than right side with a slope angle
-daily close was a hammer candlestick.
-handle usually (not always) goes to 50% ... less retrace is better bullish sign ... similar examples with more than 50% on the following links:
After all, we still said its A POSSIBLE pattern to keep a close eye on and we will get more confirmation within next days!
d1p5pyutve46t9.cloud...rtist-BT-475x293.jpg
forextraininggroup.c...Trading-Strategy.png
forextraininggroup.c...th-Handle-Signal.png
www.tradingsetupsrev...ndHandle-355x396.png
Comment:
That was a perfect retrace to hourly 200ema as we mentioned around 10600 should serve as support. It did hold the price so far. A new hidden bull div on 1H has printed on RSI as well as a failing wedge bullish continuation pattern is in formation .. lets see if it will play out!
11300 remains short term target for the ascending triangle mentioned before.
11300 remains short term target for the ascending triangle mentioned before.
Comment:
4H chart: show price failed to stay above 200ema after breakout of descending channel and now it retraced to test it ... hidden bearish div as well as H&S did play well to dump price again which target has been reached ... lets watch whatever coming next will be so interesting!!
Comment:
(CME vs Bakkt) .. Why they said, Buy the Rumor and Sell.... ?! (click to read)
Trade active:
BTC: Panic Sell OR Buy ... Next? -- ( click to read )
We saw this hidden bearish div yesterday on 1H chart forming at 10400 and its looks like its confirmed now .. the classic bullish div on 1H led to a bounce from 9500 to 10400 but i still think there is a high possibility that it could be a bounce rather than a reverse ... there is a possible descending broadening wedge formation and price should break above 10250 (hourly 100ema) for breakout otherwise it will start head down which can led to another lower low on price and higher low on RSI which could be last leg down before break out the pattern .. 5th wave could be in play?! if price drop i will be watching price action area between 9200 and 8800 .. please remember ... we only share our own personal view as a holder who has early entries! For me it will be another chance to buy more.