On the right we can see the Bitfinex chart, which makes things a bit more confusing because shows other targets. The yellow and blue box, show a potential as well. That one shows the target has already been reached. The bigger flag of my previous analysis shows a target much lower, about 600 points below the current price.
On the left we can see that triangle i showed earlier today, this one also shows a target below the current low around 3400. But when looking at those blue lines triangle, it shows the target has also been reached. Assuming the movement of the past 2 days has simply just been a retest of former support.
Based on this the chances are a bit 50/50. One thing is clear though, this no still not a climax low with high . It's high for a Saturday but not for a panic low.. There is one important thing today, that is the OI on bitmex'. It is 25 mil higher than a week ago while the price is 500 points lower. This shows there are more interested buyers NOW than a week ago. This doesn't say the low is set, but it does show there is growing interest from buyers now, which is a start, a small first step.
The targets of some of the alts have been reached already, like my ETH' and LTC' analysis i posted yesterday. Based on these the low should be set already, but when looking at Bitcoin' it is less likely, at least for the moment. First important zone to break is the 4000/4100 (USD exchanges) and the reversal zone is the 4400 and or the 4600 level. On the downside it is more difficult to pinpoint levels. Think the 3400ish for USD exchanges is a possible target level.
At the moment this is still not a climax low, maybe a drop to 3400 could create that. But in that situation i think we should move towards the 4000 and THEN make that big drop . This would mean we are making an correction now, with B in the making and a final wave C that could bring us to the 4000 zone. It's mostly guessing at the moment, so no other choice than judging things as they happen.
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To give you an impression of what we need to see to think we might have set a (the) low. We need to see something like i have drawn on the left, a bounce up and after and after making a something like a bull flag, making a second wave up that is much bigger than the first one. Second wave has to be very aggressive. If we don't see that, the chances are a lot bigger we will just continue to drop sooner or later. Because those weak moves tend to turn into bear flags otherwise.
Alts are not showing any signs of a bounce yet, so a lot of weakness there as well. This could simply just continue until we see a bounce up of at least 300/400 points.
A break of these 2 red resistance zones could be a first small step.
This green zone needs to hold, to keep that momentum in favor of the bulls. This is again the moment to see if this is just a small correction upwards or the start of the big upwards correction.
So complicated a bit now.
Bearish version, the ABC i mentioned earlier is already done, maybe go sideways for a while and slowly drop again.
Alts are moving a bit, but need to move up more to invalidated bear flags.
Some support and resistance levels to watch. Calling it a day now, please give a like if you appreciate this
Double bottom pattern or a bearish triangle. On the right we can also see a bear flag or a smaller triangle, from which we can break on both sides as well. A downside break of this smaller one would mean probably just bearish movement, so a break of 3500/3400. Upside break could mean the double bottom (left chart) or the big triangle is in play. Depending on how strong the breakout will be.