botje11

Bitcoin Making a Saturday Night Dump

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Going to keep this one short since we are dumping as we speak. That 4400/4380, a level i kept showing and mentioning, never broke the past days. Showing the weakness in the market. To my surprise we have already dropped, on a Saturday night, something that has nog happend in a few months.

On the right we can see the Bitfinex chart, which makes things a bit more confusing because Bitstamp shows other targets. The yellow and blue box, show a potential bear flag as well. That one shows the target has already been reached. The bigger flag of my previous analysis shows a target much lower, about 600 points below the current price.
On the left we can see that triangle i showed earlier today, this one also shows a target below the current low around 3400. But when looking at those blue lines triangle, it shows the target has also been reached. Assuming the movement of the past 2 days has simply just been a retest of former support.

Based on this the chances are a bit 50/50. One thing is clear though, this no still not a climax low with high volume . It's high volume for a Saturday but not for a panic low.. There is one important thing today, that is the OI on bitmex'. It is 25 mil higher than a week ago while the price is 500 points lower. This shows there are more interested buyers NOW than a week ago. This doesn't say the low is set, but it does show there is growing interest from buyers now, which is a start, a small first step.

The targets of some of the alts have been reached already, like my ETH' and LTC' analysis i posted yesterday. Based on these the low should be set already, but when looking at Bitcoin' it is less likely, at least for the moment. First important zone to break is the 4000/4100 (USD exchanges) and the reversal zone is the 4400 and or the 4600 level. On the downside it is more difficult to pinpoint levels. Think the 3400ish for USD exchanges is a possible target level.

At the moment this is still not a climax low, maybe a drop to 3400 could create that. But in that situation i think we should move towards the 4000 and THEN make that big drop . This would mean we are making an ABC correction now, with B in the making and a final wave C that could bring us to the 4000 zone. It's mostly guessing at the moment, so no other choice than judging things as they happen.



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Previous analysis:

Nov 24
Comment: Remember this pattern i mentioned in a previous analysis. For the moment it would mean, we should move to the 4000/4100ish now, and stay above the 3900 to start another wave up. I copied that post here below.

To give you an impression of what we need to see to think we might have set a (the) low. We need to see something like i have drawn on the left, a bounce up and after and after making a something like a bull flag, making a second wave up that is much bigger than the first one. Second wave has to be very aggressive. If we don't see that, the chances are a lot bigger we will just continue to drop sooner or later. Because those weak moves tend to turn into bear flags otherwise.


Nov 24
Comment: Volume is dropping with that last move down, this could be a first sign. OI on Mex is increasing during this drop as well. Which is not significant but a small sign also. Assuming these are triangles, the targets show we could see another move down towards those levels.

Alts are not showing any signs of a bounce yet, so a lot of weakness there as well. This could simply just continue until we see a bounce up of at least 300/400 points.

A break of these 2 red resistance zones could be a first small step.

Nov 25
Comment: Targets reached, a break of those red zones, could be indication that the low might be set. But needs another 200/300 wave up. Like i described in an earlier update. So good stable and FAST bull flags, not those lame slowly turning down bull flags.

Nov 25
Comment: If the bulls can hold the 3900 the coming hour or 2, should become a reversal! ALready 250 points lower than the high, not that great. OI dropped 60 mil on the way up just now, also not good. The 3800ish is about to break as i am writing this, that is not a real convincing strong move yet.

Nov 25
Comment: These bull flags should hold and we need to see another move up soon. If we can gat that candle close as mentioned above AND a move towards the 4300/4400 even with high volume and or squeeze up, should mean the low is set for at least the coming days.

Nov 25
Comment: From the looks of it, they use big spoof orders on Bitmex to push shorts into their longs. Since the OI has been increasing while they are doing that. Can't proove it, but looks like it
Nov 25
Comment:
Nov 25
Comment: Still inside this possible bull flag, but i have seen these types before, they usually fail. Maybe the fact that we are so much lower than during the 6K levels it might go differently. But need to see a move up to the upside very soon again.

This green zone needs to hold, to keep that momentum in favor of the bulls. This is again the moment to see if this is just a small correction upwards or the start of the big upwards correction.

Nov 25
Comment: Alts are also not making big bounces up. We should see those make much bigger moves up before being able to really think the low has been set
Nov 25
Comment: The bull flag failed as suspected, and dropped lower than we should. So a very big correction is probably off the table now. However, there is still a chance for one more correction wave up. I gave this possible wedge 2 options, big drop on the downside or a move up. Based on that we can test that previous high again. If that breaks we can move up some more. I don't think we will get to see those important 4300/4400 levels though. Unless we see a very big squeeze happening and alts making big relief rallies as well.

So complicated a bit now.

Nov 25
Comment: Now it will depend on how far this squeeze will bring the price. A slightly lower or higher high, won't be good enough. Because than we can expect another drop. Need to see a few more pushes in a row, ideally above 4100. Because then it would still have a chance for another move up to the 4400. Otherwise below the 4100/4050 would make another drop the most likely scenario

Nov 25
Comment:
Nov 25
Comment: Another push but still not enough, if we can't even break this 3900ish high, it will probably mean very bad news if the 3700ish breaks again as well.
Nov 25
Comment: Alts need to make another good jump up, otherwise thing will probably turn down again. I would say double the first wave up

Nov 25
Comment: I still give it a decent change to make another move. Just need to stay above that neckline of that inverse H&S. Otherwise it will turn into a bearish wedge. If that happens, we can see a possible bear flag on the left. I don't like this bear flag, but could of course still happen. If we see another push within half hour towards that 4050 target. Could mean a squeeze happens bringing it even higher.

Bearish version, the ABC i mentioned earlier is already done, maybe go sideways for a while and slowly drop again.

Alts are moving a bit, but need to move up more to invalidated bear flags.



Nov 25
Comment: Halfway for a possible reversal pattern now. Alts still need to be more convincing, but if Bitcoin can make it to the 4300/4400 within 4 hours, when the daily candle closes, would mean the reversal would be confirmed. If that happens, we could see another move the coming week to the 5K levels even. But still a long way to go. This level is still bearish territory. If bulls can hold these levels and move slowly up to the 4100+, the chances will increase. So at the moment, bears still in favor, so don't get too excited. These things have failed most of the times already. There is already rejection happening.

Nov 25
Comment: Bulls need to hold the 3880/3900 now, to keep the pressure on, otherwise chances increase for failure
Nov 25
Comment: Don't forget to check out some of my other analysis for the other markets, just posted a new one and still a few other running. There is much more to trade than only crypto :)

Nov 25
Comment: Alts are looking much better now

Nov 25
Comment: Decent correction down now, unfortunately. If we break the 3840/3900 within the next 2 hours, it could still mean the correction up is already over. If we stay above it, we can keep moving sideways. I think the daily close above 4300 is probably over already. This makes that very bullish version for correction above the 5k again less likely. The bullish momentum and pressure is gone now.

Some support and resistance levels to watch. Calling it a day now, please give a like if you appreciate this

Nov 27
Comment: Will write a new analysis now or later today, for now i have these bigger pictures in play.

Double bottom pattern or a bearish triangle. On the right we can also see a bear flag or a smaller triangle, from which we can break on both sides as well. A downside break of this smaller one would mean probably just bearish movement, so a break of 3500/3400. Upside break could mean the double bottom (left chart) or the big triangle is in play. Depending on how strong the breakout will be.

Nov 27
Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

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Thank you Botje. Would you agree that a price near 2800 is the bottom?

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Why bitcoin cracked 6k (published 3 months ago)

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There is light at the end of the tunnel :)
Reply
kardia Poukitoun
@Poukitoun, Light at the end of the tunnel or mere wishful thinking?
Reply
@kardia, So you know the real direction?
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kardia eminenceheld
@eminenceheld, Yes. It is currently strong bearish. Trying to figure out where the market is going to go days or weeks from now is wasteful. It's like trying to call tops and bottoms. Your price projections may or may not come to fruition. Instead, it is better to focus on what is happening day by day, and make trading decisions along the way based on price action. That's not to say you shouldn't pay attention to important areas of support and resistance. Do your best to draw such areas, but base your trading decisions on what happens when price gets there, and stick to your trading rules. If you fail, then try to figure out what went wrong and be sure not to do the same thing again. Thus, you will be able to refine your rules and be on your way to winning more profitable trades.
+1 Reply
weiv1 kardia
@kardia, erm ....aren't you holing the bag from like 12k or something and no longer trading, just waiting to see if you get your money back?
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@weiv1, I'm the guy who was kind enough to take time to give helpful advice, based on mistakes I have made but learned from. You're the guy who reminds people of their mistakes, freezing them in time as if there is no possibility they could ever do better. Who's the real loser here?
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weiv1 kardia
@kardia, haha i love your comments
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