Conchobhair

Bitcoin: CBOE Block Trades Detected

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
At 0600, 13/7/18, CBOE /XBT August 18 Futures experience two large orders of 13,300 & 5,000 contracts respectively. The minimum size for a block trade is 50 contracts. No individual may control more than 5,000 contracts themselves.

CBOE trades another 4,200 contracts between 2 and 3:30

Total daily volume reaches 21,834 contracts, the highest daily /XBT volume traded at the Chicago Board Options Exchange


I noticed some very suspicious volume on the CBOE /XBT Aug 18 futures that totals to the amount of approx 22,000 contracts, which amounts to approx $162,800,000 USD assuming 1 BTC = $7400.

Here is a chart detailing the daily timeframe , clearly showing the 22,000 contracts in volume:
https://i.imgur.com/zKY2ipp.png

Here is an intraday chart, with 90min candles. Note the volume:
https://i.imgur.com/fYdrxqi.png

Here is a 1 minute chart. This chart is very interesting as we can see the majority of the volume is coming from successive blocktrades of 500 contracts:
https://i.imgur.com/4Z1jrVC.png

The total sum equates to ~$162,800,000, and considering they are all trades of 500 contracts at the same time, I assume these are all being made for/by the same individual.

Additionally, its interesting the amount of slippage that occurred in this trade. This is NOT what an institution would usually do. However, given the limited number of products that can be used to hedge bitcoin , it may be an institutional investor.

Finally, the timing of this trade relative to the spot price of BTCUSD gives us the largest clue as to what may be happening. With news of Bitcoin ETFs coming, it's possible that an institution has purchased a large sum of BTC spot and is opening a large sum of short future positions to hedge these assets until they are required. It's possible that they shorted the CBOE XBT contract first, and then later bought an equal sum of BTC (spot) valued at +$162,800,000 USD which caused the large spike in price over the last few days. It's also important to realise that this position may not be a complete hedge, and in fact the individual may have only hedged a quarter of the spot position, leaving them with positive BTC spot delta exposure.


The / BTC contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME ) did not see any irregular volume . Here is a screenshot of the CME contract for reference:
https://i.imgur.com/CmG40dz.png


Here you can see the contract spec for the /XBT futures contract at the CBOE . Note that no 'person' can control more than 5,000 contracts and that blocktrades have a minimum requirement of 50 contracts:

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cbo...


If anyone is knowledgeable about this trade please PM me. What's up with the slippage?
Comment:
Formatting got a bit strange on the chart so heres a screenshot
Comment: Small update:

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-futures-t...

Bitcoinist is getting close, though it looks like they have missed the recent CBOE trades above.

http://markets.cboe.com/us/futures/marke...
Comment: https://i.imgur.com/AOfqvei.png

Current futures
Comment:
Two large buys. Unmistakable pattern.

IE: https://i.imgur.com/4Z1jrVC.png
https://i.imgur.com/fYdrxqi.png
Comment: Before the 8K candle of 15 Oct.

~26000 contracts @ CBOE /XBT fut

https://i.imgur.com/aiA8It1.png
Comment: https://i.imgur.com/rXO5ubb.png

Liquidity coming to /XBT fut @ CBOE
Comment:
Again.......

The most bullish pattern in BTC hehe

Comments

I think they open short and long trade while they accumulate at the same time,that's why retail investor are confuse.
+1 Reply
very pros analysis and informative. you must be a god trader :)
+1 Reply
@Zullyy, very funny ;)
+1 Reply
Thanks for sharing your observations. very informative :)
+1 Reply
i wish i knew about this earlier lol
+1 Reply
Conchobhair texagg22
@texagg22, Haha I did ;)
+1 Reply
Shorts basically got decimated then had to buy coins...lol.
Reply
Conchobhair CandleBoxAI
@CandleBoxAI, Maybe, I think they're just hedging a position.
+1 Reply
Good one, thank you Wacc. Alos for your explanations to the newbies here. Following now :)
+1 Reply
Conchobhair TheRealArtie
@TheRealArtie, Thanks Artie, I'm trying to make a few different ideas here on TV. Hope you enjoy. I always follow back.
+1 Reply
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