BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC is currently fighting it's way up and forming a rising channel .
I'm personally expecting a pop up within the next few days.

History loves to repeat itself.
That's why I expect the upcoming upwardsmomentum to be the final leg up, before we have capitulation taking place.

Notice how during March the exact same channel has been formed after price boomed to the upside.

We have a similar declining trendline forming right now (blue line) and it's very likely that BTC will break through, causing a further push to the upside.


I do not expect this to be the trendreversal everybody's anticipating.

Capitulation is yet to come.

In case you've read my previews analysis, you might have noticed that I'm pretty confident about market cycles and that they always repeat themselves.
Capitulation is needed, if we want a new (bull) cycle to begin.
We haven't witnessed that yet.

You might wanna take notice that there COULD be a reason, why Wall Street professionals rely on market cycles ;)


In terms of BTC price behavior, you should observe the blue, declining trendline.
Once we break through, I'm personally aiming for a long position until we reach 8450-8600 level.

This is where I'm going to take short positions.
Chart explains why.

Also notice (AGAIN!) the similarities between now and 2014:

It should be obvious to you what's happening right now.

This does not exclude that I'm wrong.
I could be.

As a trader, you want the probabilities to be in your favour.
Right now, the probabilities are pointing towards capitulation.

I'm going to change my strategy, if the probabilities point towards a new bull run, which is not the case right now.

Wish you guys happy trading, I'm going to keep you updated.



Trade active: Just broke out
Comment: We might have a bearish bat pattern forming.

Comment: Near target zone, move SL to entry point.
Comment: Previous support doing it's job as resistance.

Comment: Bearish div. on 4H

Comment: Depending on how price reacts to 0.382 Fib level, we're either going to get a pump or dump.
Watch closely how prices behaves at the 8.500$ zone.

Comment: The overall movement appears to be working out as expected.
Price just nearly missed the target zone.
BTC failed to break through 0.382 FIB level, expecting some consolidation for now.
Might retest 8.500$ Zone again.
In case the retest fails, I'm anticipating 7.600$ to be the next stop.
Comment: 8.500$ Zone rejected twice.
Potential H&S forming.
Next target: 7.700$

Comment: Going short once the green neckline has been broken.

Trade active: Fell through, probable we see 7,7k soon.
Comment: We had a small drop, but the H&S pattern failed immediately after that.
Now it appears that my initial idea, of going back to the target zone before further dropping, is about to play out.

At the current state, it's hard to predict what BTC is about to do next.
Doesn't change the fact, that we're NOT in a bull market yet.

I'm going to post a new idea soon.
Comment: New Analysis up!

Comment: New Idea is up


hahha flip!
Only yesterday we were talkig about this, and it happened today , wow

I really hope you'r right man
The market just feels so so bullish right now, it's scary being a bear at the moment
+2 Reply
@NQ95, Agree, feels pretty unusual :D

50% of the current analysis are on point right now...let's hope the other half is as well!

Pullbacks are part of the game, they happen on both sides.
Depending on your strategy, it could be useful to trade them.

In my oppionion, we're still in a bear market and there's plenty of resistances to break through until proven otherwise.

+2 Reply
NQ95 ShaheenFahmy
Yes, agreed :)

I am also bearish, howeevr what I am afriad of is for us being in the "denial phase" of the market recovery after a bubble graph and believe this is a fools rally when in fact it's the real thing XD

About your analysis, I spoke to another friend of mine about it making my case for a bearish market. He said that the big difference between today's pattern and the one in MArch from your graph is that there has been a round bottom and accumulation phase before today's pattern, unlike before March's pattern (he's bullish)
And I didnt know what to reply to that :))

In regards to resistances, you mean the 50 and 200 daily EMA (8300 and 8700) and Fibonacci at 9400, right? after that , Btc could go from 9400 to 11400 without problems, which makes me worried XD

What worries me is actually the amount of support man below current levels. 20 50 200 4H EMAs are below us, The downtrend channel, fibonacci at 7200

It's tough arguing with bulls nowadays :))), idk what to tell them XD

+2 Reply
I am glad I followed you. Appreciate the work. Not this delusional bullshit, bragging and moontalk we see elsewhere. Keep it up.
+2 Reply
@oshell, Haha yeah thank you! Appears people can't wait for their lambos lol
ud go short? but the main graph illustrates that we should go up to 8.5k again and then go down
+1 Reply
@NQ95, Yep, that's what the updates are for - thinks can change pretty fast in these markets :)
+1 Reply
Nice charts. I agree this is still a possibility.
+1 Reply
ShaheenFahmy RealMcafee
@RealMcafee, Thanks! :)
Are you expecting the last leg up to 8.6-9k or is it over at 8.3?
+1 Reply
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