Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 6

At the moment still bouncing in the 3680/3840 range for more than 2 days now. For the rest there is not much that has changed now. So please read previous analysis to be more up to date. Several Alts have made H&S patterns, some above and some below the neckline. Some even went below it and back above it. This all says that actually nobody knows what will happens next. When looking at ETH', which has been a bit leading the past 2 weeks, we can see the bullish wedge is in full play. So nothing easy to see on this part.

The fact that we were not even able to touch the 3900ish, is not good tbh and a bit disappointing as well.

For Bitcoin's bullish version, i see 2 plays here. The ones we can see on the right.

1) Break above the current range, test the range again and move up to complete the right shoulder of the big inverse H&S. Feb rally
2) Break the range on the downside, find support on that green box and after a day or so slowly move up again where is obviously has to break the 3700 and eventually the 3840 resistance. July rally

OI on Bitmex has been moving up again which is a good sign, showing more interest again at these price, but it doesn't say anything about if a low is set or not. So it's useless for the short term.

If we break the 3550/3600, chances will be very big for a retest of the 3300/3350 zone. At the moment i give a break of the 3150 like 20%. Because the rally we had from the lows was so good and strong, with alts being even stronger than bitcoin'. Of course anything is possible in crypto, we all know how emotional this market is, but simply just dropping from here on out, is unlikely. When looking back the 8.5K rally, we can see that did happen. But we were in a much different stage of the market. Since we dropped to the 3K zone since, it's clear it was the intention of the market back than. Alts were extremely weak back than as well, you probably all remember that. Those conditions are much different this time. The sell volume during that drop was also different than we can see now.

My biggest doubt is the fact that we made that big drop so fast that day. You all know i was waiting for a bigger correction, because it would fit the bullish picture much better to have a better consolidation/correction phase before starting part 2 of the rally. But a big and quick drop below the 3800, is not what i wanted to see. Should have happened in a few waves and not 1 straight line. So the bigger picture (past 2 months) says up to me. The short term (past week) says down.


So conclusion is, we want to see the current range break up because that would make things much safer. So 3850ish is a clear level to break for the short term. Whatever happens, we do not want to see another dump of like 200/300 points, with volume. That would be very bad. So at the moment, anything below the 3850 is too much risk. That one really has to break soon to able to get a bit bullish again. Until then, i would say, go enjoy these holiday's and watch how things go first before taking any positions. I know i will :)



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Previous analysis:

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We can see a small triangle has been formed on the support of the 3680/3850 range. A break of this range would give a good indication of the next step

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Alts slightly dropping with a sideways bitcoin is usually a bad sign

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There it is already, seems the sideways price action was just to be able to unload the altcoins. Always a big sign, also for the bullish version of it. If we follow the July pattern, we could/should see another small drop. Half of this drop. Check it yourself to have a better picture of this

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From invincible bulls to invincible bears. Drop of bitcoin is not a big surprise, but I did not expect alts turning to shit again. I have to check everything again when getting back home, but it’s clear to say, a bounce up is most certainly needed. Because the market has been quite dead ever since the drop from the high. This is most definitely not what I wanted to see to be confident for another move up. Seems the confidence is completely gone, even with the most bullish one, ETH.

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New possible Fractal Update

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If it is still folowing the July movement, we should be staying above the 3800ish and make a good bull flag in that zone for the next push up. If we see that happening, we could be getting the same price movement. Just look back at the July chart and go check it out your self

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Now i really have to go again, but will show you this last update.

Based on where we are, we should be in the red circle now. So a good stable price movement for the coming hours would be best. Even better that moving up another 100 points from here.
When looking at the steps, it would mean we are in the yellow circle. But less likely since we are at the level of the orange circle now.
Whatever happens, alts need to stay stable, they should move up slowly if Bitcoin remains stable.
Why i mentioned we could see another small drop, was because of that blue circled area. Back then we made a small wedge, this time it became a Bart move. Both with the same result.

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Now the 3800ish should be the low for now. When looking back, we can assume we are in this stage right now on the left. Now i am not showing it because we will get a big rally, just showing that price might move up and down a bit more. But needs to get stable. While that happens, we want to see alts get stable as well and move slowly up.

If we see this happen, good things can happen. If not, there will be risk to the downside

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Now even if we move up, what we clearly DON'T want to see is, a small rally below the 4000ish. If can stall there and make a small bull flag, but we really need to break it, otherwise the chances will be very big for a big bearish wedge. So we dont want to see any of those Bart move rejections at the high.

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This messsage is from a few hours ago, but still the same on the bigger picture, left chart

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Before I forget, sorry about that :). But this wedge is just a reasonable possibility as mentioned above. But in general I still look up, unless things change, like this wedge for example

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New Bitcoin analysis: