Anyway, there were a lot of things in favor for at least a test of the 4000/4050.
-The daily candle of yesterday was perfect, today's was good as well. But of course, just minutes before the daily close the price got pushed down. Coincidence?
-Alts were very good, they made good rallies yesterday, even though the jump start was a short squeeze.
-ETH', which is leading broke out and made a small above the big . It could almost not get any better than that
-Open Intrest was good as well.
-The of Bitcoin was eventually good as well, making that last drop to 3800ish as a final shake out, which happens more often in a .
- Volumes were good/decent with those last pushes up as well.
The only danger there was, which was the main reason why i posted that big in the first place (in my previous analysis), was because yesterday's rally of Bitcoin was a 100% short squeeze. This is usually a matter of time until it drops again if we don't see real follow through. That's why i said the next push up has to break the 4000ish, so we don't get that hanging above the market. Well we all saw what happened eventually, it did not even get above the 3950 and a typical Bart move (what i warned for as well), was thrown into the market and within a few minutes we dropped like 7%. You can take my word on it, the same people who made the Bart move yesterday from the 3600 to 3900, did the same with this drop .
So they bought things up yesterday, when being fully loaded with longs:
-They push through the stop zone
-Throwing in more buying power to keep the pressure on the stops
-When the bigger liquidations start, the market does all the work FOR' them. So they only have to wait for the price to come to their closing orders.
So all they have to do is close their longs again at the highs during high . And when the decreases they have to close the remaining positions with a policy. Selling, but not pushing the price down while doing that. When that part of the trade is done, they do the opposite and start to short the market. This last part is obvious in hindsight. There signs upfront, but with that last push up from 3840 to 3920, it looked like it was a normal move up. Up until that Bart move.
The worst thing of it all, more people start to recognize their patterns. One would think that is good, but actually we are helping them. Because as soon as we see them do it, if we start to sell or short it, we give them extra . There is actually no stopping them, unless we would all combine "our" and do the opposite of their game plan. So the only way to stop it, is having more than "they" do. The only time i saw them loose, was in July, just before the break of the 6800. I have mentioned this many times before, but just saying it again for any new readers.
Okay, back to the charts :) It seems the big i had drawn in the previous analysis, did it's work and we are back at an important around 3700. Because of this drop it is likely we will see another drop , seeing movement like we had in the blue circle. Since alts are stronger than Bitcoin', it could be my theory above is quite real. When looking at the OI profile, it could be their already loading up here. A first small step would be the price getting above the 3770ish. If that happens, there is a chance we won't make that second drop , which usually happens after a dump like we had a few hours ago.
For now the 3820/40 is a . As i am writing this, we can already see sell spoofing orders, trying to push prices into their longs (probably). For the rest, you can see all the support and resistances zones. If we drop below yesterday's low, i need to re evaluate things, because that would not fit in my bigger picture. If bull are able to touch the 4200ish the coming days, the chances will be very big for another rally. Because even if it drops to like 3900/4000 after reaching 4200, it will most likely form a higher low in that area. For the rest, keep an eye on the alts, if they get weak, the market will probably drop , if they remain strong, we will probably go up. They have been a great guide lately, except for today of course :).
I will try to update tomorrow again.
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Now even if we move up, what we clearly DON'T want to see is, a small rally below the 4000ish. If can stall there and make a small bull flag, but we really need to break it, otherwise the chances will be very big for a big bearish wedge. So we dont want to see any of those Bart move rejections at the high.
Maybe we see this crappy price action, because some people want to keep it inside a range for the holiday's? It's not difficult with this low volume.