Phi-Deltalytics
Short

BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Key Fundamentals:

1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, a correction is needed as institutional traders on CME remains bearish and the drop in net position last week indicates an overvalued 11k price for the shorter term.

2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.

3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is now overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price --> decrease in supply --> increase price.

4. Margin Market Actions:
Potential long squeeze alert in place. This is bearish for the short term.

5. SPX correlation
I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact . What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.

6. CME Gap
90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). The drop we’ve just seen is also another gap filling action. So be careful about the 9.6-9.9k gap. This hasn’t been filled yet, and probability speaking, it’s likely to be filled soon.

Key Technicals:

1. Key support at 10.5k and 9k.
2. 5 Elliot wave to the upside likely finished
3. RSI now showing extremely bullish signs. (2D, 1D)
(Be careful shorting with RSI bearish divergences. Once RSI is extremely bullish , bearish divergences can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of bearish divergence) for a trend reversal identification.)

Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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Comment: Weekly overview updated.
Support moved up to the 10.5-11k region.
Comment: Weekly overview updated.
Retracement yes. Steep retracement (below 9k) no.
Comment: After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential.
Comment: Price now close to the active trader group’s purchase price. These have been good accumulation opportunities historically as the reluctance to sell with no profit in a bull market eventually will push up the price level.
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Comments

Your ability to get to the top of the Ideas list while also being consistently wrong is pretty amazing, ngl
+18 Reply
RocketBomb puffpuffpastor
@puffpuffpastor, I think BTC will going up
+1 Reply
Wojak RocketBomb
@RocketBomb, of course you do. You always do
Reply
See you at 14k
+10 Reply
Phi-Deltalytics lotsnlots666
@lotsnlots666, lol. I'm the most bullish bull you'll find for the long term perspective. Fundamentals have been bullish since late 2019. It's only a matter of when the next optimal accumulation point is.
+1 Reply
lotsnlots666 Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, Optimal accumulation point has passed so fill up your bags and stay away from Futures :) go on holiday relax and sell all bags next year end. I have seen this cycle over and over form 2013 to now
+1 Reply
CryptoGuru369 lotsnlots666
@lotsnlots666, What if traditional markets tank due to a global financial meltdown? Appears that traditional markets are all ballooned and that BTC could easily see another 40%+ correction if the S&P tanks again. BTC has an incredibly high correction to SPY on the monthly time frame (not to be confused with lower time frames).
+2 Reply
rattlecage CryptoGuru369
@CryptoGuru369, Cool, but if you analyzed the traditional markets you would have known they are still bullish :)
Reply
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