Phi-Deltalytics

BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Key Fundamentals:

1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, a correction is needed as institutional traders on CME remains bearish and the drop in net position last week indicates an overvalued 11k price for the shorter term.

2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.

3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is now overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price --> decrease in supply --> increase price.

4. Margin Market Actions:
Potential long squeeze alert in place. This is bearish for the short term.

5. SPX correlation
I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact. What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.

6. CME Gap
90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). The drop we’ve just seen is also another gap filling action. So be careful about the 9.6-9.9k gap. This hasn’t been filled yet, and probability speaking, it’s likely to be filled soon.

Key Technicals:

1. Key support at 10.5k and 9k.
2. 5 Elliot wave to the upside likely finished
3. RSI now showing extremely bullish signs. (2D, 1D)
(Be careful shorting with RSI bearish divergences. Once RSI is extremely bullish , bearish divergences can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of bearish divergence) for a trend reversal identification.)

Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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Comment:
Weekly overview updated.
Support moved up to the 10.5-11k region.
Comment:
Weekly overview updated.
Retracement yes. Steep retracement (below 9k) no.
Comment:
After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential.
Comment:
Price now close to the active trader group’s purchase price. These have been good accumulation opportunities historically as the reluctance to sell with no profit in a bull market eventually will push up the price level.

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Check out my 2023 Bitcoin Outlook:
https://phidelta.substack.com/p/2023-bitcoin-outlook
- Alarming Macro Conditions
- Missing Cycle Recovering Signs
- Bearish Institutional bias
- Heated BTC-Margined Futures Speculation

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