BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Alright Ladies and Gentlemen,

as expected, the bounce from 6.500 $ towards 7.400$ was nothing but just another bull trap.
We had decreasing Volume and an increasing price.
Nothing bullish about that to be quite honest with you.

There were multiple resistances at 7.400$ as you can see (Red downtrend channel ).

Right now, we are moving under July's supportline.
A daily close below that one would be pretty bearish .

What do I think will happen in the near future?

I expect BTC to retest the 6.400$ level once again, probably breaking through towards 5.800$ / 5.500$ which proves to be a powerful support.

Once we've reached that level, there are 2 potential outcomes.

1. Given that the support won't hold, BTC might be going for a fast capitulation around 2,5k-3,6k.

2. In case we get a double bottom , BTC might bounce & retest December's resistance around 7.400$.
I would expect the attempted breakthrough to fail, causing a drop towards our capitulation price.

Even though I don't like it, I'm expecting scenario 2 to play out.

Let's see how it goes.

Apr 04
Comment: Let's see how this one plays out.

Apr 04
Comment: Pretty interesting what's happening right now.
BTC appears to be struggling breaking through 6.900$ (previous support level, confirmed multiple times).

If BTC manages to break through, we might have a H&S Pattern forming here, targeting 6.000$

Apr 04
Comment: Appears there is a bearflag forming right now.
Target for a breakout is around 6.400$.

Apr 04
Comment: IF a breakout to the downside occurs with relatively high volume, I'm going to place a sell order at 6.700$

Apr 04
Comment: Attempted breakout, not quite successful though.
Let's wait for the 15 Min Candle to close.

Appears to be that I won't get to sleep today lol, gonna be a tough run.
Apr 04
Trade active:
Apr 05
Comment: Had a nice drop overnight and a little bounce at 6.500$.
Appears that BTC will retest 6.5000$ soon.

Apr 05
Comment: Gotta love those random pumps.

Apr 05
Comment: We might have a textbook bearflag forming on the 1H Chart.

Apr 05
Comment: Nothing exciting happening right now.
Just some choppiness inside the bearflag.
Hard to say when exactly we will get our breakdown.
Best thing you can do right now is to watchout for breakdowns around the 6.600$ area.
From a measured move perspective, the bearflag could lead us towards 6.000$
MIGHT be a good opportunity for some new short positions.

Apr 05
Comment: I would give my life for this H & S to play out lol.

Apr 05
Comment: Over here in Germany it's beyond bedtime already.
If we have a breakdown happening while I'm sleeping:
You might want to place a sell order as soon as BTC falls through the green support line.
You want to look for a high red volume bar, indicating selling pressure + a 30-60 Minute Candle closing below the green supportline for a high probabilty of moving downwards.
This is no financial advice.
Have a nice day and safe trading!

Apr 06
Trade closed: target reached: Played out as expected.
Also notice how BTC can't manage to close above the yellow support line.
Could be our new resistance now.

Apr 06
Comment: You might want to check out my new idea.
Updates will be found there.

Apr 08
Comment: Came up with another Idea, check it out.

Apr 12
Comment: New idea is up

Thank you for keeping us updated! I appreciate the TA and your follow-through. This is very useful.
+2 Reply
@netrin, Thanks for the great feedback, I'm glad to hear that!

Im a bull but I dont hate you cuz you are likely right. I give credit where its due haha.
+3 Reply
ShaheenFahmy wildbeast
@wildbeast, Haha, thanks for the positive feedback, highly appreciated!
Longterm, I'm of course bullish on BTC as well
+1 Reply
I saw that random pump and thought the same thing, haha.
+1 Reply
ShaheenFahmy pkilchermann
@pkilchermann, Market makers probably just want to test our patience and shake out the weak hands :D
Very good, thanks for this TA
+3 Reply
ShaheenFahmy petrkovacik
@petrkovacik, Thanks for the feedback, you are welcome! :)
+1 Reply
Very good, thank you. Do you think it’ll fall straight through $6400, then? Rather than bouncing from there?
+2 Reply
ShaheenFahmy pkilchermann
@pkilchermann, Thanks for your comment - that's a great question to ask.

Yes, I think it'll fall straight through.

If we don't fall straight through, I would expect a small consolidation (instead of a bounce) happening there before breaking through, which still would be a very bearish sign.
This could happen to the 5.800$ zone as well.

Why is that so?

When it comes to supports and resistances, I love to take a look at the longer timeframe.
6.400$ (white line) has never been a key level before, unlike 5.800$ (green line) which acted as a key support/resistance multiple times before.

Check it out:

+3 Reply
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