as expected, the bounce from 6.500 $ towards 7.400$ was nothing but just another bull trap.
We had decreasing and an increasing price.
Nothing about that to be quite honest with you.
There were multiple resistances at 7.400$ as you can see (Red ).
Right now, we are moving under July's supportline.
A daily close below that one would be pretty .
What do I think will happen in the near future?
I expect BTC to retest the 6.400$ level once again, probably breaking through towards 5.800$ / 5.500$ which proves to be a powerful support.
Once we've reached that level, there are 2 potential outcomes.
1. Given that the support won't hold, BTC might be going for a fast capitulation around 2,5k-3,6k.
2. In case we get a , BTC might bounce & retest December's resistance around 7.400$.
I would expect the attempted breakthrough to fail, causing a drop towards our capitulation price.
Even though I don't like it, I'm expecting scenario 2 to play out.
Let's see how it goes.
BTC appears to be struggling breaking through 6.900$ (previous support level, confirmed multiple times).
If BTC manages to break through, we might have a H&S Pattern forming here, targeting 6.000$
Target for a breakout is around 6.400$.
Let's wait for the 15 Min Candle to close.
Appears to be that I won't get to sleep today lol, gonna be a tough run.
Appears that BTC will retest 6.5000$ soon.
Just some choppiness inside the bearflag.
Hard to say when exactly we will get our breakdown.
Best thing you can do right now is to watchout for breakdowns around the 6.600$ area.
From a measured move perspective, the bearflag could lead us towards 6.000$
MIGHT be a good opportunity for some new short positions.
If we have a breakdown happening while I'm sleeping:
You might want to place a sell order as soon as BTC falls through the green support line.
You want to look for a high red volume bar, indicating selling pressure + a 30-60 Minute Candle closing below the green supportline for a high probabilty of moving downwards.
This is no financial advice.
Have a nice day and safe trading!
Also notice how BTC can't manage to close above the yellow support line.
Could be our new resistance now.
Updates will be found there.
Longterm, I'm of course bullish on BTC as well
Yes, I think it'll fall straight through.
If we don't fall straight through, I would expect a small consolidation (instead of a bounce) happening there before breaking through, which still would be a very bearish sign.
This could happen to the 5.800$ zone as well.
Why is that so?
When it comes to supports and resistances, I love to take a look at the longer timeframe.
6.400$ (white line) has never been a key level before, unlike 5.800$ (green line) which acted as a key support/resistance multiple times before.
Check it out:
Have a great day and happy trading!