BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Alright Ladies and Gentlemen,

as expected, the bounce from 6.500 $ towards 7.400$ was nothing but just another bull trap.
We had decreasing Volume and an increasing price.
Nothing bullish about that to be quite honest with you.

There were multiple resistances at 7.400$ as you can see (Red downtrend channel ).

Right now, we are moving under July's supportline.
A daily close below that one would be pretty bearish .

What do I think will happen in the near future?

I expect BTC to retest the 6.400$ level once again, probably breaking through towards 5.800$ / 5.500$ which proves to be a powerful support.

Once we've reached that level, there are 2 potential outcomes.

1. Given that the support won't hold, BTC might be going for a fast capitulation around 2,5k-3,6k.

2. In case we get a double bottom , BTC might bounce & retest December's resistance around 7.400$.
I would expect the attempted breakthrough to fail, causing a drop towards our capitulation price.

Even though I don't like it, I'm expecting scenario 2 to play out.

Let's see how it goes.

Comment: Let's see how this one plays out.

Comment: Pretty interesting what's happening right now.
BTC appears to be struggling breaking through 6.900$ (previous support level, confirmed multiple times).

If BTC manages to break through, we might have a H&S Pattern forming here, targeting 6.000$

Comment: Appears there is a bearflag forming right now.
Target for a breakout is around 6.400$.

Comment: IF a breakout to the downside occurs with relatively high volume, I'm going to place a sell order at 6.700$

Comment: Attempted breakout, not quite successful though.
Let's wait for the 15 Min Candle to close.

Appears to be that I won't get to sleep today lol, gonna be a tough run.
Trade active:
Comment: Had a nice drop overnight and a little bounce at 6.500$.
Appears that BTC will retest 6.5000$ soon.

Comment: Gotta love those random pumps.

Comment: We might have a textbook bearflag forming on the 1H Chart.

Comment: Nothing exciting happening right now.
Just some choppiness inside the bearflag.
Hard to say when exactly we will get our breakdown.
Best thing you can do right now is to watchout for breakdowns around the 6.600$ area.
From a measured move perspective, the bearflag could lead us towards 6.000$
MIGHT be a good opportunity for some new short positions.

Comment: I would give my life for this H & S to play out lol.

Comment: Over here in Germany it's beyond bedtime already.
If we have a breakdown happening while I'm sleeping:
You might want to place a sell order as soon as BTC falls through the green support line.
You want to look for a high red volume bar, indicating selling pressure + a 30-60 Minute Candle closing below the green supportline for a high probabilty of moving downwards.
This is no financial advice.
Have a nice day and safe trading!

Trade closed: target reached: Played out as expected.
Also notice how BTC can't manage to close above the yellow support line.
Could be our new resistance now.

Comment: You might want to check out my new idea.
Updates will be found there.

Comment: Came up with another Idea, check it out.

Comment: New idea is up


Im a bull but I dont hate you cuz you are likely right. I give credit where its due haha.
+3 Reply
ShaheenFahmy Darkside999
@Darkside999, Haha, thanks for the positive feedback, highly appreciated!
Longterm, I'm of course bullish on BTC as well
+1 Reply
Very good, thanks for this TA
+3 Reply
ShaheenFahmy petrkovacik
@petrkovacik, Thanks for the feedback, you are welcome! :)
+1 Reply
Thank you for keeping us updated! I appreciate the TA and your follow-through. This is very useful.
+2 Reply
@netrin, Thanks for the great feedback, I'm glad to hear that!

Very good, thank you. Do you think it’ll fall straight through $6400, then? Rather than bouncing from there?
+2 Reply
ShaheenFahmy pkilchermann
@pkilchermann, Thanks for your comment - that's a great question to ask.

Yes, I think it'll fall straight through.

If we don't fall straight through, I would expect a small consolidation (instead of a bounce) happening there before breaking through, which still would be a very bearish sign.
This could happen to the 5.800$ zone as well.

Why is that so?

When it comes to supports and resistances, I love to take a look at the longer timeframe.
6.400$ (white line) has never been a key level before, unlike 5.800$ (green line) which acted as a key support/resistance multiple times before.

Check it out:

+3 Reply
ShaheenFahmy pkilchermann
@pkilchermann, I could be wrong though! Make sure to trade save and only use money you can afford to lose.

Have a great day and happy trading!
+2 Reply
I saw that random pump and thought the same thing, haha.
+1 Reply