Keeping this one short.
The Bearish on the left is still in play, but seems many forgot about it? The breakout was slow and weak a week ago, with low volume, which caused that trap move up again few days ago. Now it looks like a smaller wedge is in play, which still fits the picture of a retest of the bigger bearish wedge.
The ideal retest level was 7200, which broke and it got resistance from 7300ish, the level key level mentioned past days for my own view on things. In theory, the wedge can retest up to the high (7500), sometimes it even gets a little bit above (shake out wick), but that is guessing.
For now it seems that the key levels are 7950/7000 and 7300 (maybe 7500). Zo making the zone in between neutral. Volumes are telling the wedges can be real, so not something to ignore. Now usually, when a wedge a fake, you get to see a counter move to the other side instead. So good chance we get a big move soon.
One note, if the green around 6950 breaks, it has to cause a big move with high volume. All other scenario's, could mean yet another bear trap is being set.
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Previous analysis: (If you have not read the previous one, suggest you still do)
The Bearish on the left is still in play, but seems many forgot about it? The breakout was slow and weak a week ago, with low volume, which caused that trap move up again few days ago. Now it looks like a smaller wedge is in play, which still fits the picture of a retest of the bigger bearish wedge.
The ideal retest level was 7200, which broke and it got resistance from 7300ish, the level key level mentioned past days for my own view on things. In theory, the wedge can retest up to the high (7500), sometimes it even gets a little bit above (shake out wick), but that is guessing.
For now it seems that the key levels are 7950/7000 and 7300 (maybe 7500). Zo making the zone in between neutral. Volumes are telling the wedges can be real, so not something to ignore. Now usually, when a wedge a fake, you get to see a counter move to the other side instead. So good chance we get a big move soon.
One note, if the green around 6950 breaks, it has to cause a big move with high volume. All other scenario's, could mean yet another bear trap is being set.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis: (If you have not read the previous one, suggest you still do)
Comment:
Bitcoin wedge fractal extra update
Comment:
Looking good/better now, 6950/7000 broke with decent volume, but not real dump yet though. Think because OI is low, we might not see those big dumps as we are used to, so prob most moves will go slower than we are used to.
Now, price should not get above 6950/7000 anymore, if it does, things become random again. So for the bears, you want to see like a bear flag form as i have shown here. In case we dont simply drop from here.
As mentioned earlier, volume is VERY important, if we continue to drop, also break 6800ish, volume needs to stick out at least a bit. If 6500/400 breaks, needs to be very big
I also have drawn a channel on the right, just to be prepared in case we see another bear trap as we had a few days ago. Looks as if it's at 6400/050 now
Now, price should not get above 6950/7000 anymore, if it does, things become random again. So for the bears, you want to see like a bear flag form as i have shown here. In case we dont simply drop from here.
As mentioned earlier, volume is VERY important, if we continue to drop, also break 6800ish, volume needs to stick out at least a bit. If 6500/400 breaks, needs to be very big
I also have drawn a channel on the right, just to be prepared in case we see another bear trap as we had a few days ago. Looks as if it's at 6400/050 now
Comment:
Not watching all, but they are pumping Coinbase, and Bitmex has a spread of 10/20 points so arbitrage traders are prob buying it up there at the moment.
So didn't take long for the bear flag option to invalidate :). Think for now we have a level around 7100/7150. If that breaks the whole wedge idea won't get invalidated, but it will become less likely. Drawn a trend line from the 2 highs, think we can say that should be the max.
ETH also pumped a lot from the lo already. Broke a big support but went up just as much again. So would say, it was a stop hunt for longs, based on that would say ETH wants to go up. So bit confusing still. Just need to wait and see. We might get an answer in half an hour, the US stock market will then open
So didn't take long for the bear flag option to invalidate :). Think for now we have a level around 7100/7150. If that breaks the whole wedge idea won't get invalidated, but it will become less likely. Drawn a trend line from the 2 highs, think we can say that should be the max.
ETH also pumped a lot from the lo already. Broke a big support but went up just as much again. So would say, it was a stop hunt for longs, based on that would say ETH wants to go up. So bit confusing still. Just need to wait and see. We might get an answer in half an hour, the US stock market will then open
Comment:
Some crazy ass moves, bouncing up from 6820 to 7000 within a minute or so only to come back down again. Maybe it's a fight between bulls and bears though.
On the left, can see that daily support is prob real, around the 6800. So maybe if that breaks, we get another reaction. But we need to keep looking at 6500/400, think that might be a big support as well.
As long as we make these small drops, and don't get a high volume dump of like 400/600 points, the bulls keeps options open.
When looking at ETH, bounced so hard few hours ago, only to give at all away again, can't think of anything else that it's just a matter ot time until that support really breaks.
Think the yellow circle bounce (i mentioned here or in my channel yesterday), was THE retest. So today's retest are prob fake and matter of time until we continue to drop
On the left, can see that daily support is prob real, around the 6800. So maybe if that breaks, we get another reaction. But we need to keep looking at 6500/400, think that might be a big support as well.
As long as we make these small drops, and don't get a high volume dump of like 400/600 points, the bulls keeps options open.
When looking at ETH, bounced so hard few hours ago, only to give at all away again, can't think of anything else that it's just a matter ot time until that support really breaks.
Think the yellow circle bounce (i mentioned here or in my channel yesterday), was THE retest. So today's retest are prob fake and matter of time until we continue to drop
Comment:
New ETH analysis:
Comment:
So far all the bounces we had were short lived, so the bulls that jumped in past week, are not in full force today. On the right it looks like an attempt to make a small inverse H&S, being turned into a small bearish wedge. Think if the green around 6820 breaks, we should be headed towards today's low again, or maybe even lower. Because 6800ish is a support on the daily chart, could be we see a big reaction (drop) if that zone breaks. For the big bearish wedge to be real, there has to be some real, high volume, fast price dumping. That is what a wedge is, so if we keep moving down in small steps coming hours/days, big chance it will eventually turn around. My guess is, the high volume will prob kick in if 6500/400 breaks.
Comment:
So the small wedge turned into a triangle, looks real. Now question is (assuming we break down), is the target the first or the second triangle. Would make most sense to assume it's the second one but you never know with triangles. In crypto especially, triangles are starting points for traps
Comment:
New Bitcoin analysis:
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