Yesterday we discussed from a 4H perspective (see chart below) why it would be technically possible and above all healthy for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to pull-back to the 1D MA50 and then rebound:
Today we approach this from the 1W time-frame where the results are virtually the same. As you can see, Bitcoin has pulled-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Low on both previous corrections. Even the April - June and July - September double corrections last year (2023), both didn't exceed the 0.382 Fib.
With the underlying long-term pattern for BTC being a Channel Up since the November 2022 (FTX crash) bottom, such a pull-back would be a new Higher Low. As you can see every Bullish Leg to a Higher High is slightly weaker progressively. The 1st was +104.28%, the 2nd +96.69% (-8% lower), the 3rd +92.48% (-4% lower), so we may have a pattern here where every Higher High's decreasing rate is -50% lower each time. This indicates that the next Higher High may be -2% less, i.e. +90.48%.
That gives us a $110000 Higher High target but it is always safer to start taking profits (medium-term at least) around $100k. So if this model continues to repeat those systemic sequences, we are looking at the possibility of a 60-58k pull-back towards and marginally after the Halving and then new rally to $100k.
It is worth mentioning that every time such Higher Low pull-back took place within the Channel Up, the 1W MACD either made a Bearish Cross or a very tight Squeeze. We can already see the MACD reversing downwards.
So what do you think? It is more probable to see a 60k pull-back before a new rally to 100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Today we approach this from the 1W time-frame where the results are virtually the same. As you can see, Bitcoin has pulled-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Low on both previous corrections. Even the April - June and July - September double corrections last year (2023), both didn't exceed the 0.382 Fib.
With the underlying long-term pattern for BTC being a Channel Up since the November 2022 (FTX crash) bottom, such a pull-back would be a new Higher Low. As you can see every Bullish Leg to a Higher High is slightly weaker progressively. The 1st was +104.28%, the 2nd +96.69% (-8% lower), the 3rd +92.48% (-4% lower), so we may have a pattern here where every Higher High's decreasing rate is -50% lower each time. This indicates that the next Higher High may be -2% less, i.e. +90.48%.
That gives us a $110000 Higher High target but it is always safer to start taking profits (medium-term at least) around $100k. So if this model continues to repeat those systemic sequences, we are looking at the possibility of a 60-58k pull-back towards and marginally after the Halving and then new rally to $100k.
It is worth mentioning that every time such Higher Low pull-back took place within the Channel Up, the 1W MACD either made a Bearish Cross or a very tight Squeeze. We can already see the MACD reversing downwards.
So what do you think? It is more probable to see a 60k pull-back before a new rally to 100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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