Hello Everyone,
The last two months have been intense in the crypto market.
After touching 69k, the market dropped 40% from the All-Time High.
Looking at the chart, it was logical to exit the market at around 70k. Although I called the top, I have re-entered the market at 55k, expecting the run to 100k like many others. That was a pure emotional mistake (that is why risk management with stop losses is essential) that I hope I will treasure and avoid in the future. Although the market looked strong in price, the volume told us something else. It was drying on the rally. This is typical of wave B, which is a fake run. You can see the difference between a legit run and a phoney in the chart.
Nevertheless, there were other signs in the market structure.
In the chart, I highlighted the primary and intermediate Elliott wave cycles.
If we had to look closely at the chart, we could appreciate that BTC had a zigzag correction back at the end of 2019. By the rule of alternation of EW, we should have expected a Flat formation or complex formation developing sideways for the primary wave 4 (the one we are in now). Nevertheless, until we were holding above 46k, I was giving the benefit of the doubt to BTC and expecting a possible rising triangle.
However, since we lost the 46k level, the market has confirmed the flat formation.
BTC is now in wave C of intermediate degree, which is usually very painful for market participants.
I expect BTC to have a bounce relief from 39-40k retesting the lost level at 46k. I expect a rejection that will create a cascade down to 30k, where BTC will conclude the correction.
This aligns perfectly with the Elliott wave channel I have drawn on the chart, which is constructed by linking the top of wave 1 and wave 3 and drawing the parallel line starting at the bottom of wave 2.
I have used the line chart as it is clean and blocks the swing's noise, which is best when wave counting. However, we can maybe expect a swing below 30k due to extreme emotional reaction at that level, touching 27-28k.
Despite all this bad news, there is some good news. I see BTC bottoming out around middle March. I expect a slow start with wave 1 being steep, but due to the bearishness of market sentiment still deemed as bounce relief with people calling Nonsense levels such as 3-6 k for BTC. Wave 2 will feel like this with a lot of uncertainty. However, things will start to accelerate quickly after that. My final target hasn't changed, and I expect BTC to top at 185-195 k. Unfortunately, the market has to go through the pain of the correction before getting the sweet fruits of the next bull run.
If BTC breaks above 54k, this hypothesis will be invalidated. Anything below 54k, then the flat is still in full force.
I will start looking for shorts at around 46k expecting lower levels to 30k.
If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
The last two months have been intense in the crypto market.
After touching 69k, the market dropped 40% from the All-Time High.
Looking at the chart, it was logical to exit the market at around 70k. Although I called the top, I have re-entered the market at 55k, expecting the run to 100k like many others. That was a pure emotional mistake (that is why risk management with stop losses is essential) that I hope I will treasure and avoid in the future. Although the market looked strong in price, the volume told us something else. It was drying on the rally. This is typical of wave B, which is a fake run. You can see the difference between a legit run and a phoney in the chart.
Nevertheless, there were other signs in the market structure.
In the chart, I highlighted the primary and intermediate Elliott wave cycles.
If we had to look closely at the chart, we could appreciate that BTC had a zigzag correction back at the end of 2019. By the rule of alternation of EW, we should have expected a Flat formation or complex formation developing sideways for the primary wave 4 (the one we are in now). Nevertheless, until we were holding above 46k, I was giving the benefit of the doubt to BTC and expecting a possible rising triangle.
However, since we lost the 46k level, the market has confirmed the flat formation.
BTC is now in wave C of intermediate degree, which is usually very painful for market participants.
I expect BTC to have a bounce relief from 39-40k retesting the lost level at 46k. I expect a rejection that will create a cascade down to 30k, where BTC will conclude the correction.
This aligns perfectly with the Elliott wave channel I have drawn on the chart, which is constructed by linking the top of wave 1 and wave 3 and drawing the parallel line starting at the bottom of wave 2.
I have used the line chart as it is clean and blocks the swing's noise, which is best when wave counting. However, we can maybe expect a swing below 30k due to extreme emotional reaction at that level, touching 27-28k.
Despite all this bad news, there is some good news. I see BTC bottoming out around middle March. I expect a slow start with wave 1 being steep, but due to the bearishness of market sentiment still deemed as bounce relief with people calling Nonsense levels such as 3-6 k for BTC. Wave 2 will feel like this with a lot of uncertainty. However, things will start to accelerate quickly after that. My final target hasn't changed, and I expect BTC to top at 185-195 k. Unfortunately, the market has to go through the pain of the correction before getting the sweet fruits of the next bull run.
If BTC breaks above 54k, this hypothesis will be invalidated. Anything below 54k, then the flat is still in full force.
I will start looking for shorts at around 46k expecting lower levels to 30k.
If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
CFcryptoTA
check the youtube channel out
youtube.com/channel/UC1nxHmfbU0pyoX7Bp-ayDuA
Telegram channel for 1 to 1 chat: t.me/TAEW4
check the youtube channel out
youtube.com/channel/UC1nxHmfbU0pyoX7Bp-ayDuA
Telegram channel for 1 to 1 chat: t.me/TAEW4
