Bitcoin: Waiting For Signal 25K.

Bitcoin is now poised to retrace into the 25K key support area. In my previous article I shared a long swing trade idea from the 27,150 level. While this idea started off in the green, it has since produced a conflicting signal and I have suggested to those who took the position to mitigate risk by breaking even or taking a small loss. I do NOT pretend to know where the market is going, I only evaluate probabilities and adjust to new information. In this article I will explain what I am anticipating for the coming week in terms of price action.

As a quick note, in my previous stream I shared an ETH SHORT swing trade idea from the 1815 level. This idea came straight from my trade scanner two days after I called Bitcoin long. Together with participants in my stream we put together what the entry, stop loss and take profit should look like. Since this signal, the trade scanner has also called Bitcoin short. I will be reviewing the management of these ideas in my next stream, particularly in the area of conflicting signals.

As far as this week's price action: I am anticipating follow through of the potential sell signal developing at the moment. The 25K support zone is significant and provides a potential high probability location for a swing trade long. The trade itself totally depends on the type of price action that presents itself in the specified area (see lower blue rectangle). Keep in mind that markets are MOSTLY random and this scenario is just one of an infinite number. A bullish reversal from the 25K's can see a rally attempt back into the 28K area. At this point I would NOT be much more optimistic than that. This movement from low to high can take a week or two to develop (see line illustration on chart).

An important thing to keep in mind in this environment: There is a LOT OF ECONOMIC DRAMA in the news. And when there is drama, the fake gurus and "experts" capitalize on this further by offering their "valuable" opinions. All of this leads to planting seeds of bias or opinions which you MUST AVOID if you want to get through this with your money still in your account. The first thing "smart" people are likely to do is apply logic. Meanwhile markets are driven by emotions. This is why you can have a Nasdaq pushing yearly highs while the U.S. Treasury is unable to pay back its lenders. Don't attempt to make sense of it. Price behaves how ever it wants, NOT how you THINK it should behave. This is where technical analysis shines. TRUST PRICE NOT PEOPLE.

Using price structure, levels and context, you can better determine how price is more LIKELY to behave over shorter time frames. And an adequate level of proficiency can be achieved while being completely IGNORANT of the news and other useless information offered everywhere for free. Most retail traders fail not because they are incapable, but because they consume and react to the same information as EVERYONE ELSE.

As long as Bitcoin can stay within the 25K to 30K range, I will consider it generally bullish because that is what the structure implies. IF 25K is cleared, then that calls for an adjustment of broader expectations.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.