SEC Breaking Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin breaks the 25K support AREA over the coming week, it will point to an important structural change that can increase the probability of a 22K to 20K support test in the near future. That is a BIG IF. The idea here is to gain a sense of probability from both sides of the market, rather than forming an "opinion" like so many "experts". This mindset will better prepare you to adjust to what the MARKET chooses.

I realize there is a LOT of drama in the news with the SEC. If you haven't read the allegations, you should because it is VERY enlightening in terms of how these exchanges conduct their business (and inflate volume on order books). With this in mind, you must not project what you "think" this means for the future of Bitcoin, nor should you borrow the opinions of other experts. I warned about the coming regulatory environment during the first quarter of the year. There were plenty of signals coming from the authorities that most people simply ignored.

This situation is certainly a negative and can lead to a more bearish perception of the future. What matters here is how the herd behaves, and what clues we can gather from the resulting price action. The most important thing is to keep an open mind and always consider the contrarian point of view.

Now the bullish side: My views are shaped by the PRICE ACTION, not the news. I trust price because I strongly believe price reflects ALL the known information in the world in a given moment (Efficient Markets). Price will ALWAYS know more than me.

With that said, IF Bitcoin manages to hold the 25K support AREA, it is in an ideal location for a swing trade long. At the moment there is NO signal or confirmation so I cannot justify assuming any risk yet. Keep in mind price can test slightly lower than 25K and still be in position for a high probability swing trade long.

The 25K area in general still serves as a higher low within a broader BULLISH trend. As long as this area is not compromised, I will continue to place greater importance and expectations on the long side. Like I mentioned at the beginning of this article, only if the area is cleared will I begin adjusting to a more bearish argument.

If a bullish signal appears, I will place predetermined orders that reflect 1500 points of risk along with a 2250 point take profit. This is in line with my swing trade strategy.

One of the biggest mistakes I see regularly is forming opinions, ESPECIALLY ones based on "logic". There are two major problems with this: 1) markets are driven by the perception of the future which can be completely irrational. 2) we have incomplete information as to what is actually driving prices NOW, we only "believe" we are being informed by news, fundamentals and public information.

For outsiders like retail traders, we must rely on a strong inner game. Trust price and learn how to recognize human behavior to anticipate potential scenarios in the near future.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.