Bitcoin: 28,450 Take Profit?

Bitcoin has generated a new buy signal off the double bottom and bullish pin bar reversal that confirmed between Thursday and Friday. The entry would have been 26,650. I missed this confirmation and had not shared the idea, but some students have bought into this. For a swing trade, a reasonable stop loss would be 25,450 and take profit 28,450. Buying this at current prices is NOT a good idea, because the R:R is much less attractive.

Recent price action across the board has been confusing, especially if you are the logical type. There are some interesting explanations out there that have to do with bond auctions and the use of government lending facilities, etc. but after all of this fancy fundamental talk, no one can tell you how this situation will play out. My suggestion: use price structure, levels and price action to estimate probabilities of RISK. The swing trade time frame is ideal in this environment because of its short term nature.

Do NOT get caught in the hype ESPECIALLY when only a handful of stocks are driving the ENTIRE market. Nasdaq moves of this nature are unsustainable. Now let's talk about Bitcoin.

The 25K to 26K AREA is a major support within a broader bullish structure that has been in play since the beginning of the year. Within bullish trends, support levels are more likely to hold which means shorting into the 25K 26K areas is HIGH risk. Having this perspective will provide you with the insight you need to better select trade setups. To give you an example, my trade scanner recently generated a short notification from the 26,850 area. We know now that this trade would have not turned out well BUT if you had applied the simple perspective I mentioned earlier, you would have known that this would be a notification to IGNORE.

Price locations can imply probabilities if you evaluate them in terms of price structure. These are concepts that I review regularly with students and followers.

As long as 25K stays intact, it is within reason to see a test of the 30K AREA over a few weeks.
If you missed the bottom of this move, do NOT chase it. Either WAIT to see if a better price comes along (like a mini higher low) OR consider working on a day trade time frame.

Logic and opinions will not help you be consistent in a game that is highly random. We only assume that we know "why" price is moving after we read some news or listen to some "expert". Meanwhile, it does not matter why, what matters is what's most likely to be NEXT. This type of relevant information can only come from actual measures of sentiment or price action itself. Conventional logic will only lead you to a shrinking account.

Tomorrow is a market holiday and I will not be conducting my usual analysis stream. Will continue next week. Enjoy your holiday everyone!

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.