In my previous analysis i mentioned a possible pattern, which is still in full play at the moment. We are bumping against the resistance of this pattern at the moment, moving inside a . So far it's still holding so the chances are still there that we break up within a few hours. Second option is the bulls failing here and we start to drop again towards the 3800/3850. Where the previous triangle support is and the breakout zone of the triangle on the right.
As i showed yesterday in my updates, Alts have been improving, breaking descending since the whole crash started weeks ago AND a higher low. But also the same here, resistance still needs to break.
So things are looking much better this time than they did on Sunday, more support as a foundation for a potential bigger correction towards the 4600. Open shorts on Bitfinex are close to it's highs again, even showing a possible there, indicating they might drop , which could mean a short squeeze. But doing TA on open longs/shorts is not really reliable of course.
So the current 3940/60 needs to hold the next few hours, if not we could see a drop to 3800. If that support breaks as well, bears might take over once again. If we do move up from here, it is very important we make a squeeze to at least 4200ish with high . If we see a 50/100 point rally above the 4050, chances are very big it will fail.
For now, this is just a big correction. Meaning, i do not have assumptions the low is set and we rally to 5K or even 6K. Step by step, anything is possible no matter what everyone says. Let the chart and it's momentum show us the way.
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Because the Bitmex price has been moving much lower than the mark price, which shows funding %. It will increase a lot the next period. So still a lot of bears shorting this breakout.
Be back in a few hours, good luck.
As mentioned before, the idea is and still is, this ABC correction, with help of the double bottom pattern. If and when we get there, i will judge it from there again what the next step might be.
There is still a chance it simply moves up, but the moves up are getting smaller, usually a sign. So if the next push stays below the 4380/70, it will probably be the last one for now.
So the 4150 could be an important level already.
Ideally we make a big wedge like we can see on the left. Some of the alts made quite the rallies but some like ATH and XRP are just dead.
Think we might get an answer withing an hour or 2