BITCOIN 1st $10000 move on a single day! Is this a Bear Cycle?

Bitcoin made history today, registering the first $10000 price move within a single trading session (day), as (until the moment I type this article) the price had made a drop from $43891.0 to $29563.0 (Bitfinex numbers). That is more than -30% drop on a single daily candle. What does this benchmark movement mean for BTC though?

What better time to revisit and analysis that I posted on February 20, 2020, that dealt with the potential of the first $10000 move on a single day, as the answer may be found here:




At the time Bitcoin was trading at $9600. As I mentioned then, the previous single day benchmark moves for Bitcoin included:

- The first +$1 move in a single day was in April 30, 2011 when Bitcoin rose from $2.75 to 4.05 (approximately). This was made on the 2nd High before the top of the 2011 Bull Cycle (39 days prior).
- The first +$10 move in a single day was in June 11, 2011 when Bitcoin declined from $23.90 to 13.25 (approximately). This was made three days after the Top of the 2011 Bull Cycle.
- The first +$100 move in a single day was in April 10, 2013 when Bitcoin declined from $270 to 120 (approximately). This was made exactly at the top of the 2013 Bull Cycle.
- The first +$1000 move in a single day was in November 29, 2017 when Bitcoin declined from $11400 to 9100 (approximately). This was made 18 days before the Top of the Bull Cycle.

From the above info we realize that Bitcoin tends to make its first single day benchmark moves of such magnitude in declines as it has happened so in 4 out of 5 times (with the exception of April 30, 2011, which was on a rise but more than 1 month before the Cycle's Top). And on top of that all such declines have been either on or too close (2017) to the Cycle's Top, meaning that when they happened it was an indication of an upcoming Bear Cycle.

Today's $10000 move pushed BTCUSD very close to its 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line). The previous 4 benchmark days where not near the 1W MA50, which typically what separates officially Bull Cycles from Bear Cycles. However today's -30% drop is no stranger for such single day benchmarks as all 4 previous moves ranged from 20% to 60%.


So what do you think? Is the 1W MA50 here to save the day and keep Bitcoin marginally within a Bull Cycle, or that first $10000 single day move is the confirmation of an upcoming Bear Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


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