DrDovetail

Bullish breakout of ascending bear pennant as expected

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As anticxipated the 4hr ascending bull pennant we were in yesterday broke bullishly upward and we are now currently in the middle of forming a new bull flag . The flag is currently using the 1hr t line as its support zone so I'm doing this idea on the 1hr time frame chart, however it is also developing a bullflag on the 4hr currently as well. The 1 hr             t line ahs been consistent support for several candles now so that's why I choose to show you support and resistance lines on this chart. If we break under the 1 hr             t line and it flips from support to resistance not only are all the support lines listed here potential support but so is the t line and 50mas on the 2,3,and 4hr charts as well. We are overdue for a retracement so that could hapen at an time but the biggest tell tale signs of a retracement will be when you see the price flip the 4hr t line from support to resistance...it will have to get through the support of the 1,2,and 3 hour t lines first to be able to do that though so you should have plenty of warning. If we break upward out of the current bull flag that is forming I think we likely won't see a major retracement util 8400, 8600, or possibly 9300, or 9400. I expect that retracement will not dip below the eve trendline which is currently around 7100 and rising with every new candle that forms. I anticipate the retracement will form a higher low, and then turn around on the upside immediately after to form a higher high. If this happens I am very confident we will see this double bottom pattern validated and willbreak its neck line.. The breakout from the descending wedge on the weekly chart is imminent to and should yield some huge upside in the next week or 2. The near future is looking bright...but we will experience a retracement in the near future. Because of that impending retracement I will leave this idea neutral even though probability favors the current flag also breaking upward...I am HODLing and buying dips..no shorts for now unless I see an obvious retracement. You choose your own path of course as this is not financial advice. Good luck and thanks for reading!
Comment: current bull flag is continuing to play out and the 1 hour t line is continuing to act as support...odds are good it will be a bullish breakout if it cant penetrate below the 1 hr t line if so its very unlikely 8400 will be our retracement...8600 might stand a chance but I think mid 9400s is when we will finally see the first retracement as it is our prjected target of the original wedge breakout that got us out of this mess....keep in mind however there's also a slim possibility that we may only consolidate sideways this whole way through the double bottom and never get a real retracement. It's wise to anticipate one though just to be prepared.
Comment: there will be o doubt a battle with the 1 day 50ma which is currently sitting at 8540..it may bounce down off it a couple times before finally being able to surpass it....so keep an eye on just how hard we bounce down from it, it could bounce us hard enough when we test it to cause a retracement potentially. I still lean towards 9400 though but am definitely factoring that in.
Comment: I wish I could edit the title of this idea I wasnt paying attention and put bear pennant when I meant bull pennant. It won't let me edit it but most traders who understand how to read charts I'm sure clearly know what I meant.
Comment: 1hr t line is still strong support.
Comment: The price action broke through all 4 t lines on the 1,2,3,and 4 hour timeframes and wicked way below in between the 1hr and 2hr 50mas before being bounced back above the 1hr 50ma which is staying strong support for now anyways as it has bounced significantly up above it. The retracement we are experiencing now was long overdue but now that it's here the goal is achieving a higher low. My stop loss was wisely put multiple pips under the 1hr 50ma and hasn't triggered yet so I didn't get liquidated. These people were stop loss hunting so you never wanna put your stop loss right below a major line of support or right above a major line of resistance. If it's meant to go lower than this my stop loss will still be triggered accordingly...we had a fake breakout on the bullflag. On the1hr time frame I think it's wise to wait for 3 candles closing above or below the flags trendlines before a breakout is confirmed and we only had true...on the other hand we've also had only one candle below the bull flag right now and it hasn't even closed yet...so there's a chance it could crawl back into the bull flag before the candle closes it could even wait until the next candle to go back into the bull flag without validating the breakout but odds favor with this much volume behind this dip that a bearish breakdown will be confirmed. I anticipate the we will likely start forming a bearflag to see if we can form a higher low...which may last a few breakdown rounds....or we could only last one round or we could crawl back into the flag on this candle or the enxt 2 and still break out above the flag and this could be one big Bear Snare. We will know soon enough no doubt.
Comment: my stop loss is at 7911 If it is triggered I will consider shorting more if it doesn't and 50ma maintains support I will simply buy the dip. Waiting for further price action so far it appears the 50ma is still support though for now. ay dip buying i do will be stoplossed just a few pips under if a bear flag should form.
Comment: now it appears 8000 is the new support and the 1hr 50ma may start to flip to resistance...will have to wait and see more price action and more retests of the 1hr 50ma
Comment: hahha and its bounced up again off the 50ma pretty significantly before I got done typing the last update...a big whale tug of war is going on between bulls and bears at the 50ma...and the outcome could eb different ebfore I hit enter here so I will wait longer on the enxt update until an outcome has been determined.
Comment: think its safe to finally say that the 1 hour 50ma is holding support. One encouraging thing to note is we have just had a golden cross on the 3hr chart which could potentially offer a bullish boost. For now though we could potentially either forming a bear flag or if this most recent candle closes as a bullish reversal hammer which it looks like it will....it may give us enough bullish momentum when combined with the 3 hour golden cross to get us back into the bull flag by the next 4hr candle....if so the breakdown would be invalidated...its much less probable than us forming a bear flag but possible none the less and something ot consider and watch for.
Comment: there is a reversal hammer on the 3 hour currentl as well.
BTCUSDSHORTS is flatlined since the squeeze..but check BTCUSDLONGS they're on a nose dive as well..
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Very good analysis in that last comment.. we're on opposite sides of the same coin right now tho :)
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DrDovetail arthax0r
@arthax0r, thanks! If we close a candle from here under the 50ma I will probably be on the same side of the coin as you likely shorting a fractional amount there and seeing where we go from there. While safeguarding myself from a prolonged bear trap with a stop loss a few pips above should it immediately shoot back up...if not I think we will most likely form a bear flag and drop a rung or 2 down the bear ladder before forming a higher low.
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DrDovetail DrDovetail
@DrDovetail, my stop loss is at 7911
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arthax0r DrDovetail
@DrDovetail, my short position is around 8350.. looking to take profit around 7111, lol. Maybe lower if looking crashy still. Since we're in such a wide channel, swing trading more than day trading... which is painful, lol. I need to make smarter short term decisions :)
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DrDovetail arthax0r
@arthax0r, very nice thanks for the snapshots great to see the 15, and 6 hour as well 6 hour looks solid. see some bullish div on 15 rsi, but bear divergence on the 1hr macd
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