CFcryptoTA

BTC Elliott wave (MUST READ)

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Hello Everyone.
Today I have spent quite some time analyzing the current Bitcoin movement and why I wasn't accurate as I expected.
Hence after a few hours, this is my result and conclusion. In markets, we often witness a Kitchin cycle, which means that between 2 major peaks, the cycle lasts four years. Hence I concluded that BTC would probably reach its peak around middle February. This is consistent considering the cycle length between the peak in 2014 and the peak in 2018 (1477 days) and a 4-year cycle at 365 days (1533 days). So I expect the peak of BTC to be between middle January and the end of February. This will depend on the pace bitcoin will take on this move up.
After analyzing the minor wave 1 (red) of the intermediate wave 3 (black), I realized that we had witnessed an extended wave 1, which ended with a truncation where minute wave 5 fell short of the expected peak (last ATH). Considering we just had an extended wave 1, we can expect the retracement to be less deep than normal wave 1. This is because an extended wave suggests a strong underlying market. Looking at the current correction, you can see I subdivided it into different simple corrections, which will form a double three WXY. The pattern's target is between 100% and 127% of wave W, which currently sit between 58 and 55500k. I now believe BTC is most likely ending this correction. This is confirmed by the various timeframes momentum indicators reaching oversold condition and meeting the trendline support (RSI, StochRSI, ChandeMO, KST, ROC). Also, we are now flirting with the 50 days MA and the VWAP anchored to the previous low, both sitting at 59k. Candles are also now printing long wicks in the lower section of the bar suggesting strong demand in prices below 59k. Volume has started to pick up on lower timeframes on the support at 59500. I am now deploying capital with orders from 59 down to 56 for long. There are bullish divergences printing on the various timeframes suggesting a reversal is imminent. The BB is squeezing, suggesting volatility with the price flirting with the lower band SD2, which is a reversal sign. Finally, if you follow the different waves I drew, these are the different targets I expect in the coming months, with 100k coming by the middle of December and 185k early 2022. As you can appreciate, there will be a few 25-30% retracements in between before reaching the top.
I am now deploying capital with orders from 59 down to 56 for long positions. The ride will be wild.
I hope this will help you.
It did undoubtedly helped me to realize where I was wrong and what was happening.
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CFcryptoTA
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