Possible paths for BTC depening if MA200 support holds
So, we have been floating around the weekly MA200 for a while now. BTC seems to want to drag out the decision as long as possible.
I expected a rally towards 5000, but because the longs are too high, this rally is almost impossible now. It would have done a rally, if shorts remained higher than longs, which wasn't the case unfortunately.
This means that at best, we now could get a slow creeping upwards towards 4500ish, and then the final low at around 2000, represented by the green line.
The red line, represents what will probably happen if BTC breaks MA200 support. A quick panic sell to 2000ish plusminus, then recovery, but then the final low a few months later to 1200.
THe MA300 will provide some solid support in both cases, it will be hard to penetrate it down for a long time. I think the accumulation phase will form either way at around the MA300 support.
The flashcrash to 1200 would be fast, and bounce back up to MA300 support.
In both cases, due to the increasing network activity (www.blockchain....cluding-popular?timespan=a...), and thus increasing Network price, plus also the halving come nearer and nearer, in both cases I think that from 2020 onwards, we'll see the new bullmarket.
An excellent opportunity to buy below 3000, either way. Good luck catching the knife to all :)
I expected a rally towards 5000, but because the longs are too high, this rally is almost impossible now. It would have done a rally, if shorts remained higher than longs, which wasn't the case unfortunately.
This means that at best, we now could get a slow creeping upwards towards 4500ish, and then the final low at around 2000, represented by the green line.
The red line, represents what will probably happen if BTC breaks MA200 support. A quick panic sell to 2000ish plusminus, then recovery, but then the final low a few months later to 1200.
THe MA300 will provide some solid support in both cases, it will be hard to penetrate it down for a long time. I think the accumulation phase will form either way at around the MA300 support.
The flashcrash to 1200 would be fast, and bounce back up to MA300 support.
In both cases, due to the increasing network activity (www.blockchain....cluding-popular?timespan=a...), and thus increasing Network price, plus also the halving come nearer and nearer, in both cases I think that from 2020 onwards, we'll see the new bullmarket.
An excellent opportunity to buy below 3000, either way. Good luck catching the knife to all :)
Comment:
Chances are improving for breaout to the upside, but let's see if it's not another fail:
Comment:
It seems indeed that the falling wedge is finally breaking to the upside, something that I've been waiting for since an eternity.
This is good news, the chances for the green line are increasing, meaning that we might not go below 2000 in the final BTC drop. MA300 will provide ultra strong support imho, and MA300 is currently at 2300, and rising. So the low could be anywhere from 2300-2500 USD.
Anyways, the moment it goes below 3k, I will start buying like a crazy maniac.
This is good news, the chances for the green line are increasing, meaning that we might not go below 2000 in the final BTC drop. MA300 will provide ultra strong support imho, and MA300 is currently at 2300, and rising. So the low could be anywhere from 2300-2500 USD.
Anyways, the moment it goes below 3k, I will start buying like a crazy maniac.
Comment:
Of all the charts that I lately drew, where I had this feeling that a bounce was coming, either a strong one, or a weak one (sideways), the green line here seems to be the most accurate until now. If BTC continues like this and hits the log res/daily MA200, the low will be higher: Mid 2000's. So 2300-2500 USD imho.