AlanSantana

πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Pre-Halving Bottom πŸ‘‰ Feb-2024 (Major Prediction)

Short
AlanSantana Updated   
INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The previous recovery year and pre-halving correction happened 2019 and 2020.

This time around the dates are 2023 and 2024.
2023 Is the recovery year, the relief rally while 2024 the halving year.

Let's start with the chart...
βž– Bitcoin Monthlyβž–

Notice how in 2019 Bitcoin produced a relief rally lasting 5 straight months green, later entering a corrective phase that hit its climax March 2020. The bottom month signal came in after exactly 427 days.

We had the strong bullish wave followed by a long distribution phase.

In 2023 Bitcoin produced a relief rally with 4 months green, a long drawn out consolidation phase followed by 4 more months green. In January 2024, we have the first red month exactly at 426 days (bottom month signal).

Looking at past history, next month can produce a major, major drop.

πŸ‘‰ A strong drop towards 26,000 or even 22,000 or lower on wick.

Bitcoin's price is likely to recover the same month and then produce a long-term bull rally in preparation for a major bull-run.

We have to wait to see if the next All-Time High in 2025 will stop at 180,000, 220,000 or more...

The future looks great for Bitcoin but short-term, prepare for the biggest drop since June 2022.

You've been warned.

Namaste.
Comment:
Many people believe that Bitcoin cannot produce a strong correction pre-halving because the only reason why Bitcoin crashed March 2020 was due to Covid... But what about 2018 and 2021-22?

Let me show you...

Here we have a -84% correction in 2018 (365 days)

Here we have a 77% correction in 2021-2022 (365 days)

There is more...

Here we have a 94% correction in 2011 (153 days)

Corrections can happen unannounced, the market will make up the matching event.

For example:
Something related to the SEC and Binance or...
Something with XRP.

Some major exchange going down, such as Kraken.
Some sort of regulation that is detrimental to crypto going live.
A bug in the code.
Or simply the market cycle.

Anything can go wrong but we don't have to go that far because the market moves in waves... Up and down, up and down... The down wave follows the up-waves... It has been doing so since day one.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ New All-Time High Now? Is Bitcoin's Correction Over?

The week is coming to an end...
The month is coming to an end...

Bitcoin retraced from a high of 49K and hit a low of 38.5K!

Is the correction over?
Can we expect a new bullish wave leading to a new All-Time High, no new lows?

Bitcoin is now trading back above 40K, so this must be it, right?
Bitcoin is now trading back above EMA50 and EMA10!
Bitcoin's RSI is back above 50, signaling that the bulls are back on top!

Is the path now clear for Bitcoin to move toward a new All-Time High or should we expect new lows?

To answer this question, let's go back to basics.

Each time an important support level hits, a retrace takes place. Bitcoin produced a drop of more than 21%, a challenge of EMA100 as support, the first time since October 2023.

Trading volume is relatively low...

πŸ‘‰ What we are seeing now is the a dead-cat bounce, the classic pull-back before another, even stronger, major drop.

There are many traders that are over-leveraged and the market is taking care of those... Once those over-leveraged positions are removed, watch out... We will certainly see a new low in the coming days, maximum a week or two.

βž– If Bitcoin grows 9.50% towards 46,700, a total of 1.3B of cumulative SHORT liquidations would take place.
βž– If Bitcoin were to drop 9.50% from the current price toward 38,500 a total of 966M (or 0.966B) of cumulative LONG liquidations would take place.

What can we extrapolate from this information?

Since the market is about 50/50 between LONGs and SHORTs, this might mean that the bears are being greedy, their leverage is too high and this greediness is what corrections are for.

The term "correction" implies fixing something, making it right which in this case means removing those over-leveraged position so that whatever is the initial market intention can resume, once balance is achieved.

Regardless of these data points, even at 47,000 or 48,000 we would still have a lower high and the bearish potential would remain the same.

It doesn't matter how far up Bitcoin goes now, we will see lower prices before the major bull-market takes place.

A new All-Time High is likely to hit later on down the road around the year 2025.

We love to remain open but also stay alert not fall prey to market hype.

Stay strong, stay healthy, prepare and remain wise.

πŸ‘‰ We will have a strong bull-market in 2024...
πŸ‘‰ We will have a massive bull-run in 2025...

But right now, the correction is already confirmed, make sure you are position on the right side.

We continue aiming lower toward a price range between 22,000 and 26,000...

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.


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