BITCOIN Is a potential ETF approval already priced in?

It has been almost 3 months since Cointelegraph's fake ETF approval tweet (October 16 2023), which was basically the start of a medium-term mid-Cycle parabolic rally for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that saw it grow by +69.10% this week. Yesterday we got the first serious signs of exhaustion as the 1D candle made contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 12 2023. That was also at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern. Both (1D MA50 and Channel Up) held, which keeps the trend bullish for now.

** Is the ETF priced in ahead of SEC? **
Only days before the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) deadline regarding its decision, the real question is, has a potential Bitcoin ETF approval already priced in on this enormous mid-Cycle rally?

** Buy the rumor, sell the news? **
Indeed that was a significant move, especially considering the fact that it took place months before the next Halving (number 4, expected this April), which is the fundamentals event that provides a supply shock in the market. Nobody knows for sure how the market will react to a potential ETF approval next week but we have seen the old 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' approach one too many times happening in situations like this.

** Next Halving is the benchmark **
It wouldn't be surprising to see a correction towards April's Halving and then accumulation towards the Bull Cycle's 1 year rally. Purely from a technical point of view, which is the only hard data we have at hand to work with, a 1D MA50/ Channel Down break downwards can start a technical correction towards the lower Fibonacci retracement levels and the long-term Moving Averages.

** Fibonacci targets and the 1W MA50 **
The first level to test would be the 0.382 Fibonacci around 37500 and then the 0.5 Fib around 35350. If the correction takes place gradually in a controlled manner and not aggressively, we can see a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) contact by then. A more aggressive possibility can see BTC test the 0.618 Fib and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) a little lower, which is the natural long-term Support during Bull Cycles and is currently intact (the 1W MA50) since March 13 2023.

** Bearish Divergence **
In addition to the above technical realities, we shouldn't ignore the 1D RSI, which has been on Lower Highs since October 25 2023, i.e. peaked 9 days after Cointelegraph's fake ETF tweet, trading within a Falling Wedge pattern, which with regards to the price's Channel Up, is a Bearish Divergence.

But what do you think? Is a potential ETF approval already priced in, and if yes how low do you expect the price to fall? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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