BITCOIN New rally about to start! Similarities with 2020/21.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has rebounded strongly since the 39000 Low and has left the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) significantly behind, with many wondering if a correction back to it is due. That would technically be reasonable and an optimal level to add more buys but it is not necessary to happen. A simple comparison with the 2020/ 2021 Bull Phase (right chart) offers critical insight on a potential rally structure.

** Fibonacci levels and CCI **
As you can see (both charts are on the 1D time-frame), during the 2020/21 rally BTC pulled back below the 1D MA50 only after it broke above the $60k level. Even during the short-term correction within the 6.0 - 5.0 Fibonacci extension levels (dotted Channel Down), the 1D MA50 held. The 1D CCI pattern since the start of 2023 has been identical so far to BTC's price action since the March 2020 COVID bottom.

** The structure of today vs 2020/21 **
The symmetry between the two is remarkable, they both started on a (dotted) Channel Down that broke below the 1D MA50, then a consolidation phase in the form of an Arc within our base 1.0 - 0.0 Fib levels and then a rally to the more recent (blue circle) consolidation within the 3.0 - 2.0 Fib extensions. That is the structure that the February rally left behind and if 2021 continues to be our guide, it should now start a new rally first to the 4.0 Fib (65000) and then to the 6.0 Fib (a little above 100000) for the new dotted Channel Down correction.

** Is such strong rally so fast realistic? **
Of course $100k by April would mean reaching those levels by the Halving event, which seems unrealistic (of course that is relative) even with the current ETF inflows which are surpassing every prior estimate. But of course it is a solid framework to have as a guide even if the current Cycle proves to be less aggressive than the previous and symmetry starts breaking.

But what do you think? Is it possible for Bitcoin to continue replicating 2021 and reach 100k so fast? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!


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