It's time for an update on the longterm bitcoin trend channel.
Basically all Bitcoin logarithmic growth channels were far too optimistic. Bitcoin is growing a lot slower than most people would like, but that is just the reality, and we have to accordingly
expect much lower targets in the future.
If this trend continues, and that is a big if, then we can expect around 130-150k USD as a target for Bitcoin sometime in early to late 2025.
I have drawn the length of time it took for BTC to reach a top after each halving, and it was always in the timeframe from 300 something to 500 something days. The 2021 rally was strange because
there was some sort of double peak, so it depends what we see as the top.
But we have to say goodbye to the outlandish targets of hundreds of thousands imho. 130-150k in 2025 is what we're realistically gonna get, with a lot of luck 180k, but I think that would already be
a very excellent goal. Better to be on the conservative side.
In 2021, BTC managed to only go 3x over the previous top, and that ratio seems to be declining, so a 2x over the 2021 would not seem too pessimistic.
The problem is that adoption is a lot slower than anybody expected. We just have to look at the daily transactions and numer of unique wallets used: These charts grow a lot slower than most people
would have believed.
Of course, please keep in mind that, should the stockmarket crash dramatically, this scenario here will not happen, because then it will drag Bitcoin down into the Abyss.
This scenario here can only happen if stocks remain stable and go sideway-ish at worst. And I don't know how realisitc such a scenario is with the very high inflation + super inverted yield curve.
Very uncertain times, and this is the first time in history, where I only see a 50-70% chance of a new Bitcoin cycle even occuring.
But should it occur, then we must live with much lower price targets than most people would have liked.
Basically all Bitcoin logarithmic growth channels were far too optimistic. Bitcoin is growing a lot slower than most people would like, but that is just the reality, and we have to accordingly
expect much lower targets in the future.
If this trend continues, and that is a big if, then we can expect around 130-150k USD as a target for Bitcoin sometime in early to late 2025.
I have drawn the length of time it took for BTC to reach a top after each halving, and it was always in the timeframe from 300 something to 500 something days. The 2021 rally was strange because
there was some sort of double peak, so it depends what we see as the top.
But we have to say goodbye to the outlandish targets of hundreds of thousands imho. 130-150k in 2025 is what we're realistically gonna get, with a lot of luck 180k, but I think that would already be
a very excellent goal. Better to be on the conservative side.
In 2021, BTC managed to only go 3x over the previous top, and that ratio seems to be declining, so a 2x over the 2021 would not seem too pessimistic.
The problem is that adoption is a lot slower than anybody expected. We just have to look at the daily transactions and numer of unique wallets used: These charts grow a lot slower than most people
would have believed.
Of course, please keep in mind that, should the stockmarket crash dramatically, this scenario here will not happen, because then it will drag Bitcoin down into the Abyss.
This scenario here can only happen if stocks remain stable and go sideway-ish at worst. And I don't know how realisitc such a scenario is with the very high inflation + super inverted yield curve.
Very uncertain times, and this is the first time in history, where I only see a 50-70% chance of a new Bitcoin cycle even occuring.
But should it occur, then we must live with much lower price targets than most people would have liked.