BITCOIN (BTCUSD) - Week 09 - Weekly / Daily Analysis
▪️2W Analysis
Here is our view on BTC Looking at the 2W TF, we’ve used the same interval time from the highest point to lowest point for each bearish trend and at same time looking at RSI to find matching Low - we had already done an initial analysis on that exact same chart early 2022 and then provided an update end of 2022. If that pattern is to repeat itself again for a third time, this could very well be the start of a bull run.
In regards to Price Target I have plugged in a curved TL (magenta) across each Higher Highs created at end of each bull run, and if this is correct, we could expect BTC to reach the $140K price level, approx x7 from current price. Now as we all know, nothing is certain in life, especially in the Crypto space, albeit I believe BTC has good chance to reach to that price by end of sep 2025.
▪️Daily Analysis
Since end of November, price has been bullish, we have seen first sign of that potential bull run with a push to the upside with momentum which broke that first Lower high (COD red line), at same time a Break of major TL and the retest made both on the broken structure and that TL, from there price pushed up again to reach the $25K “psy level” from which it got rejected.
I am now anticipating further ranging in that zone (20K / 25K), there is nothing in between that is particularly compelling. The daily time frame is the subject of much debate at the time of writing. In particular, the issue at hand is whether or not the current pullback might just be a higher low preceding the new higher high at $25K, which I think is unlikely.
As per last few months (June - nov 2022) this price range has been extremely erratic. And since then, there has been no follow-through from any of the range breakouts, it may be premature to anticipate a clear market structure pattern. Second, each of the more distinct support levels is closer to $18K / 20K, hence why I am looking at different scenarios with a "bearish view" while price is in that price range. I believe the "higher low" attempt will be much deeper than what is currently offered on the daily time frame.
To put it another way, despite the fact that this region makes structural sense for a higher low, there are no corresponding high time frame levels of support to backup that case, rendering it less persuasive. The daily and lower time frame price action must be particularly compelling for us to develop strong views in the absence of clear high time frame support levels.
In the grand scheme of things, a range high breakout and a deeper monthly pullback would be obvious. We are aware that the market is retreating from multi-time frame resistance; therefore, in order to advance, we require favourable levels and/or price action. I believe that we are currently lacking of both, so best thing to do right now is to wait for confirmation on direction, and in the meantime, I will be looking at the LTFs for potential trades, whenever price reaches key levels and market gives us the signals for a trade opportunity.
Trade with care!
Here is our view on BTC Looking at the 2W TF, we’ve used the same interval time from the highest point to lowest point for each bearish trend and at same time looking at RSI to find matching Low - we had already done an initial analysis on that exact same chart early 2022 and then provided an update end of 2022. If that pattern is to repeat itself again for a third time, this could very well be the start of a bull run.
In regards to Price Target I have plugged in a curved TL (magenta) across each Higher Highs created at end of each bull run, and if this is correct, we could expect BTC to reach the $140K price level, approx x7 from current price. Now as we all know, nothing is certain in life, especially in the Crypto space, albeit I believe BTC has good chance to reach to that price by end of sep 2025.
▪️Daily Analysis
Since end of November, price has been bullish, we have seen first sign of that potential bull run with a push to the upside with momentum which broke that first Lower high (COD red line), at same time a Break of major TL and the retest made both on the broken structure and that TL, from there price pushed up again to reach the $25K “psy level” from which it got rejected.
I am now anticipating further ranging in that zone (20K / 25K), there is nothing in between that is particularly compelling. The daily time frame is the subject of much debate at the time of writing. In particular, the issue at hand is whether or not the current pullback might just be a higher low preceding the new higher high at $25K, which I think is unlikely.
As per last few months (June - nov 2022) this price range has been extremely erratic. And since then, there has been no follow-through from any of the range breakouts, it may be premature to anticipate a clear market structure pattern. Second, each of the more distinct support levels is closer to $18K / 20K, hence why I am looking at different scenarios with a "bearish view" while price is in that price range. I believe the "higher low" attempt will be much deeper than what is currently offered on the daily time frame.
To put it another way, despite the fact that this region makes structural sense for a higher low, there are no corresponding high time frame levels of support to backup that case, rendering it less persuasive. The daily and lower time frame price action must be particularly compelling for us to develop strong views in the absence of clear high time frame support levels.
In the grand scheme of things, a range high breakout and a deeper monthly pullback would be obvious. We are aware that the market is retreating from multi-time frame resistance; therefore, in order to advance, we require favourable levels and/or price action. I believe that we are currently lacking of both, so best thing to do right now is to wait for confirmation on direction, and in the meantime, I will be looking at the LTFs for potential trades, whenever price reaches key levels and market gives us the signals for a trade opportunity.
Trade with care!
