Hello, on the basis of Pitchfork, Fibonacci rises, upper trend line, parabolas and, as in the title of the percentage calculations, I have determined the Top of this cycle and the future bottom of the bear market. I invite you to read a short reading:
1. Pitchfork sets levels to which Bitcoin's price regularly responds:
-The bottom green line is a critical support to the bottom of the bear market for Bitcoin.
-The bottom yellow is an indicator of the bottom of the bear market.
- The middle, or purple, for Bitcoin is both support during a bull market, otherwise known as a mid-cycle correction, and a resistance during a bear market.
- Top yellow, triggers over 500% increases when Bitcoin breaks out of it, usually a second breakthrough turns out to be successful.
- The upper green, in its vicinity, the price of Bitcoin enters the last deeper correction, followed by the last run up.
- The upper red one is used to draw an effective parabola, i.e. 15 weekly bars, from the ATH cycle.
2. Fibonacci rises, measured from the ATH of the previous cycle to the bottom of the bear market, are consistent with Pitchfork, the most important observations are:
- 1.618 and 2.618 are support for the mid-cycle correction.
- 4.236 - this is the last resistance for the bullish rally up.
- 6,854 - at this level the price may pass the last or penultimate correction before the ATH cycle.
- 17.94, 29.03, 46.97 - at these levels we can expect TOP.
- The ATH of the cycle should be near the intersection of the fibo level with the upper line of the uptrend for the Bitcoin price (dashed purple)
3. Percentage calculations of% based on the hypothesis that one full cycle is counted from the bottom of the bear market and not from the halving:
- The 2011-2013 cycle ran for 106 weekly bars
(the correction of this cycle lasted 59 weekly bars)
In this cycle, after breaking the top yellow line of Pitchfork, we got a 520% increase and we had a correction of 86%.
- The 2015-2017 cycle lasted 152 weekly bars
(the correction of this cycle lasted 52 weekly bars)
In this cycle, after breaking the top yellow Pitchfork line, we got an increase of 540% and a correction of 84%.
The conclusions are as follows:
- the next cycle is 30% longer than the preceding cycle
- the increase after breaking the top yellow line of Pitchfork is 20% greater than the previous one
- the cycle correction is 2% smaller than the previous one
Using these calculations, we find that:
- ATH of the 2018-2022 cycle? we will get after the price goes through 198 weekly bars, that is in the last week of September or the first week of October 2k22, worth around 520k USD.
- the cycle correction should last 46 weekly bars and would end in mid-August 2k23, with the bottom of the bear market at around 90k USD.
Now I will add more than myself that the breakout above Pitchfork's yellow line, around 78k USD, would have to happen in mid-January 2k22 at the earliest, to maintain a constant% growth. If it comes sooner, and I am a supporter of the S2F model from Plan B, which points to a minimum of $ 100k by the end of the year, then I believe the% increase will be the same, but the ATH cycle date will come closer.
Thank you for your time for reading my idea and I wish everyone survive on this trip to the moon: D
1. Pitchfork sets levels to which Bitcoin's price regularly responds:
-The bottom green line is a critical support to the bottom of the bear market for Bitcoin.
-The bottom yellow is an indicator of the bottom of the bear market.
- The middle, or purple, for Bitcoin is both support during a bull market, otherwise known as a mid-cycle correction, and a resistance during a bear market.
- Top yellow, triggers over 500% increases when Bitcoin breaks out of it, usually a second breakthrough turns out to be successful.
- The upper green, in its vicinity, the price of Bitcoin enters the last deeper correction, followed by the last run up.
- The upper red one is used to draw an effective parabola, i.e. 15 weekly bars, from the ATH cycle.
2. Fibonacci rises, measured from the ATH of the previous cycle to the bottom of the bear market, are consistent with Pitchfork, the most important observations are:
- 1.618 and 2.618 are support for the mid-cycle correction.
- 4.236 - this is the last resistance for the bullish rally up.
- 6,854 - at this level the price may pass the last or penultimate correction before the ATH cycle.
- 17.94, 29.03, 46.97 - at these levels we can expect TOP.
- The ATH of the cycle should be near the intersection of the fibo level with the upper line of the uptrend for the Bitcoin price (dashed purple)
3. Percentage calculations of% based on the hypothesis that one full cycle is counted from the bottom of the bear market and not from the halving:
- The 2011-2013 cycle ran for 106 weekly bars
(the correction of this cycle lasted 59 weekly bars)
In this cycle, after breaking the top yellow line of Pitchfork, we got a 520% increase and we had a correction of 86%.
- The 2015-2017 cycle lasted 152 weekly bars
(the correction of this cycle lasted 52 weekly bars)
In this cycle, after breaking the top yellow Pitchfork line, we got an increase of 540% and a correction of 84%.
The conclusions are as follows:
- the next cycle is 30% longer than the preceding cycle
- the increase after breaking the top yellow line of Pitchfork is 20% greater than the previous one
- the cycle correction is 2% smaller than the previous one
Using these calculations, we find that:
- ATH of the 2018-2022 cycle? we will get after the price goes through 198 weekly bars, that is in the last week of September or the first week of October 2k22, worth around 520k USD.
- the cycle correction should last 46 weekly bars and would end in mid-August 2k23, with the bottom of the bear market at around 90k USD.
Now I will add more than myself that the breakout above Pitchfork's yellow line, around 78k USD, would have to happen in mid-January 2k22 at the earliest, to maintain a constant% growth. If it comes sooner, and I am a supporter of the S2F model from Plan B, which points to a minimum of $ 100k by the end of the year, then I believe the% increase will be the same, but the ATH cycle date will come closer.
Thank you for your time for reading my idea and I wish everyone survive on this trip to the moon: D