VincePrince

Bitcoin-Wyckoff-Market-Cycle-Analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Traders Investors And Community, hopefully, everybody is doing well in this volatile time we are facing today and welcome to this analysis about the important distributional events I detected bitcoin currently develops and which will affect the price sustainable in advance the next hours and days. Today we saw huge volatility at all global markets caused by the corona-fears about a second possible lockdown-restriction-phase which can have an effect on all global markets also in bitcoin similar to what we have seen in March this year. Beside the distributional events we currently facing I detected other significant technical signs which playing into the scenario that will develop when we enter the next phases within bitcoins-Wyckoff-cycle.

In this manner, it is important to understand the fundamentally important Wyckoff-distribution phases and its details and nuances in the current situation with bitcoin . The Wyckoff-method provided already an exponentially high amount on distributonal and accumulational cycles in the different global markets, where you can find different examples below in the analysis and therefore it is a potent indicator for me which applied in the current bitcoin situation can lead to some good opportunities furthermore. To illuminate the importance of the events playing within bitcoins price-action we are looking at the different phases bitcoin already confirmed and will confirm in the next times.

Phase A:
This phase is very important for the whole other distributional cycle bitcoin is currently trading in. It marked the first stopping of the prior uptrend with evidenced supply entering the market at the preliminary supply (PSY) level you can see in my chart, this was the first point where smart sold their bitcoin which bought in before and it is also matching with the psychological 9000 levels. After the PSY bitcoin provided the BC (Buying Climax) where volatility and volume reached a maximum and retails traders rushing into the market selling their positions to smart traders. After these events marking the stopping of the main uptrend, we got the automatic reaction (AR) and secondary test (ST) which marked the final confirmation of phase one and additional supply entering the market in this phase, these phases lying ground for the further distributional events and decline in price which will be the final point in the structure.

Phase B:
The phase B is actually the longest phase in the structural construction and is marking the next final steps to complete the distribution with an upthrust (UT) which is actually a significant element in the range in the case to build a new cause for a downtrend and it is factly a bull-trap trapping all these breakout-traders into buying above the established support-lines where smart traders entering the market and shorting it which is a common practice in today's markets. After this bull-trapping upthrust has occurred bitcoin showed us the sign of weakness in-phase (SOW in Phase B) where we got the move below support-lines with heavy volume and volatility which indicated the weakening of demand in the structure and a new cause for the next steps to determine in the downtrend. In this event, we can clearly see that supply was dominand and after some sideways movement bitcoin moved on to the important phase c in the distributional events.

Phase C:
Here we go further with the trapping of the public as smart-money initiates a second upthrust after distribution (UTAD) with the final remaining test of demand-conditions in the structure and it is similar to the upthrust a second bull-trap trapping all the retail public traders in their positions before a final confirmation and burst to the downside begins within the next phases. It was actually also a point where many people called for the moon because of the high volatility we got there and this was all just a huge bull-trap initiated from smart money to pull the prices down and enter new short-positions, it may be wise to open also a short-position in this event but this can prove dangerous as smart-money can constantly provide an upthrust after the other before finally marking the downtrend which comes to the fully conclusion int he phases D and E and the increase of supply entering the market in these phases.

Phase D:
Phase D is confirmed in conclusion after we had the last high due to the UTAD in the structure and it is marking serious supply entering the marked with one or more signs of weakness (SOWs) entering the market-landscape, these signs of weakness are usually provided by high volatility and volume and pushing the price below important support-lines marked before like the one established by the buying climax you can clearly see in my chart after such a move we saw a smaller consolidation-phase within bitcoin and the lack of bitcoin to rally in the structure it is also the phase where first traders waking up and detect that there is something wrong in the price-action and that there may be more selling pressure to the downside after the last point of supply (LPSY) developed which showing a lack to rally in bitcoin and stopping at serious resistance levels before moving on to the next signs of weakness.

Phase E:
This is the last phase and the most devastating of them all as the price is now trading below important support-lines with the bearish structural elements the last point of supplies and sign of weaknesses established there is not much possibility left for a bullish continuation or reversal this phase will establish in the bitcoin price when we mark below the important support-line you can see in my chart at the 8400 level. It is also a good place to enter a short-position as volatility to the downside increases extremely and the prices decline with extreme speed. The final dooms-phase has entered after this has confirmed and the declining will not stop before there is significant support found and a new accumulational phase or re-distribution has begun.

Bitcoin Wyckoff Distributional Events Example ( Apr . 2019, 4-Hour Timeframe)


GOLD Wyckoff Distributional Events Example (Jun. 2014, 4-Hour Timeframe)

The current situation is a crucial situation for bitcoin where it has to decide how fast and with which intensity the next phases will be entered, as we have other technical elements in the current situation which giving this scenario an additional increase in probability and as we have heavy supply entering the stock-market due to a possible second corona-breakdown and the fears resulting out of it in the markets we definitely need to be prepared for the case that phase E will be an important step into unloading the whole structure to the ground. It is meant to keep in mind that when we do not hold this level and provide an additional accumulation phase the declining confirming out of it can result in heavy breakdowns and wise traders should be prepared on this scenario. When looking at the daily timeframe we have also the rising wedge currently in bitcoin which can provide additional confirmation in the range and will be confirmed when we break the lower boundary to the downside.

When looking at the long-time-picture of bitcoin there are significant levels of support in the structure that need to behold for even contemplating a possible reversal or resulting continuation to the upside otherwise the probability for that scenario is quite a marginal one . There are many people calling for the complete moon and reaching it in below two weeks which need to be differentiated at the moment, it is important to do not fall into illogical speculative aspects and trade what to see and not what to think therefore there are quite many obstacles in bitcoins way when contemplating the bullish scenario. In this case, it is significantly true to keep the next distributional events standing in front of bitcoin in mind and be prepared to profit from possible opportunities arising from them. We will see and contemplate where the whole journey can determine and if there are any possible stabilization signals within bitcoin further continuation.

In this manner, thank you, everybody, for watching, support for more market insights, good day, and all the best!
There are many roads to prosperity in the modern economy, but one must be contemplated.

Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Comment: Bitcoin confirmed below the lower boundary of the wedge which is playing together with the distributional events
Comment: Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Comment: The current move to resistance which bitcoin provided can be the first LPSY in the structure
Comment: The stock-market has developed a similar structure like bitcoin just in the higher time-frames which I mentioned
Comment: Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Comments

Thank you!!! This is the best post i have seen on tv.
Followed, thumbs up and enjoy the ride!
+3 Reply
@heish, Thank you for the great comment!
+1 Reply
@heish, Appreciate it much
+1 Reply
@heish, Good weekend my friend! ;)
+1 Reply
heish VincePrince
@VincePrince, thanks, same to you.
Method of tape reading is certainly one of the best books on trading ever written ,)
Reply
Thanks for the detailed explication.. Although not a place for buy and hold, you can trade inside this huge moves.. And then take profits and put them into HOLD accounts..

your apr 19 chart ends with 23 jun 20?
+3 Reply
VincePrince alienteck
@alienteck, Thank you
Reply
VincePrince alienteck
@alienteck, Good idea. It began at the end of April.
Reply
VincePrince alienteck
@alienteck, All the best
Reply
Awesome Idea!!

Check out my views too

+2 Reply
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