So I was wrong, I overestimated BTC. I knew one thing certainly: That the weekly Stoch RSI would have to go into overbought zone again, because it hasn't been there
since a far too long time.
And that is indeed happening exactly as I thought.
However, the way it is happening, is different: Not through a strong bounce, nay, but by going painfully sideways, with a very slight tendency upwards, so that we still
go to overbought territory. This is of course genius, because by that, BTC can start the final drop from much lower, 4000 instead of 5000. Therefore, the bottom will
be consequently also 1000 USD lower than I thought.
In my previous analysis I identifited the MA300 as solid support, at around 2400 USD. However, I think it will be penetrated downwards for a short while, could go as low
as 1600-1800 USD. But it will strongly bounce above MA300 and the weekly close will be above MA300, so that it indeed will furtheron act as strong support.
It might do a double bottom like structure with a second drop a few months later, similar to the bottom accumulation zone in 2015.
I am still watching daily transactions, we are still below ATH, so I don't see any reversal yet. Halving date is now end of May 2020, so still plenty of time till there.
And still many people post charts about this being the bottom, therefore I am pretty sure that it won't be the bottom, hehe.
since a far too long time.
And that is indeed happening exactly as I thought.
However, the way it is happening, is different: Not through a strong bounce, nay, but by going painfully sideways, with a very slight tendency upwards, so that we still
go to overbought territory. This is of course genius, because by that, BTC can start the final drop from much lower, 4000 instead of 5000. Therefore, the bottom will
be consequently also 1000 USD lower than I thought.
In my previous analysis I identifited the MA300 as solid support, at around 2400 USD. However, I think it will be penetrated downwards for a short while, could go as low
as 1600-1800 USD. But it will strongly bounce above MA300 and the weekly close will be above MA300, so that it indeed will furtheron act as strong support.
It might do a double bottom like structure with a second drop a few months later, similar to the bottom accumulation zone in 2015.
I am still watching daily transactions, we are still below ATH, so I don't see any reversal yet. Halving date is now end of May 2020, so still plenty of time till there.
And still many people post charts about this being the bottom, therefore I am pretty sure that it won't be the bottom, hehe.
Comment:
We'll see very soon which approach BTC will take, the sideways until the logarithmic resistance/daily MA200, or the upwards approach.
Either way, we'll go into strong overbought zone on the weekly Stoch RSI, which will be the perfect setup for the next leg down.
The peak of this small rally, will determine how deep the bottom will be.
It will be a nice short entry opportunity. I'll keep you updated on where I think the bottom will be. This can be however only said, after we've seen if BTC now goes sideways or up towards log resistance/MA200.
Either way, we'll go into strong overbought zone on the weekly Stoch RSI, which will be the perfect setup for the next leg down.
The peak of this small rally, will determine how deep the bottom will be.
It will be a nice short entry opportunity. I'll keep you updated on where I think the bottom will be. This can be however only said, after we've seen if BTC now goes sideways or up towards log resistance/MA200.
Comment:
As I updated the other chart, it becomes apparent that BTC takes the strounger bounce approach. The sideways movement is almost off the table.
BTC could go as high as 4800, which would also heighten the low to about 2000-2500 USD, somewhere in that range. I'll post updates as this bounce here unfolds.
BTC could go as high as 4800, which would also heighten the low to about 2000-2500 USD, somewhere in that range. I'll post updates as this bounce here unfolds.
Comment:
Due to the latest dump, the sideways probability has increased again. We still have to see how high this intermediare peak will be. The weekly Stoch RSI is nicely aligning as well, going to strong overbought without BTC rising a lot. Normally that is a perfect setup for dumps.
Let's wait a bit more and see.
Let's wait a bit more and see.
Comment:
Looking kinda sideway-ish to me. This could drag out for further 2-3 weeks until the drop begins. It might get really boring until then, so we have to find again some other activities beside BTC XD
Comment:
Not much to update. As I feared, the most boring scenario is of course the one that BTC takes, slowly creeping sideways, with slight upwards tendency. Weekly already quite nicely overbought, good setup for the next leg down. We'll still have to wait a few more weeks though, I think in April it will start at the latest.
Let's see how high this goes. I doubt that we'll go through the logarithmic resistance and daily MA200:
So it seems that BTC does after all want to make the bounce I've been waiting for, for weeks. If confirmed, my previous charts will be valid again, this chart here calling for sideways, will then be invalidated.