I'm here again today with another TA on BTCUSD
Why are we dropping and what makes me think Bearish?
Death Cross at 4H booth MA and
At 1D MA's are squeezing up.
Always keep an eye on MA's and EMA's they act as support or resistance.
Before I get started with the 'main' chart I want to say that I only believe this scenario to be true after the Bear Flag/Pennant as a CONFIRMED break downwards. Until then this is all invalid. To further confirm this scenario a close bellow the Downtrend (green line with breaks) is also needed, that will be at around 8.5k, after that, I must say this will all (most likely) happen.
Now with that out of the way let's get started shall we? As you can read on TradingView the Drop and Fear is 'winning' and here's my scenario for this drop, the last drop, the 'best' drop. Why you may ask? Because with a on 6k (main target) we'll start fresh, a fresh bull run will be upon us.
I said 6k was the main target because there are others on that way, here are all of the targets I've laid for you (an why I did it as well)
A on the Pink Box (11.7k) was made. The run to those tops started at 6k and the target of a is the point it started so 6k for the . For this target to be valid price must turn the Support (9.2k) in to a resistance. (In my opinion it's doing that as you can see last candles at 4H are closing bellow it)
We can see this Bear Flag/Pennant forming, the target of the Flag/Pennant is usually the same % as the Pole, since our pole is 28.7% (downwards), 28.7% downwards (if the breakout happens at $8995) will be at $6413, it's all showed on the picture.
confirms this Bear Flag/Pennant because our cloud is acting as resistance and the cloud is dropping. (And so is the Tenkan and Kijun)
We also have this which I don't know if it can bee 100% valid because the Left Shoulder Top and the Head Top are the "same"... The concept it's there, and it helps 'prove' this drop. We have the neckline (which was also a old support, the left white box) at 7.8k we should see some action there, on the right white box. Target is the same as the others around 6k.
Last but not least is the WORST case scenario, if we count the All time high as the end of 12345 waves we'll have our ... Read the Blue box to understand...
I'm leaving Magic's, D4's and Peaceful's TA on the related ideas (an other 2 of my own older ideas) You can read all the updates on those ideas, D4, Magic and Peaceful are all great traders which I follow!
This is one of many ideas I've made, you can check my other older Ideas just open my profile and see!
This is my own personal opinion! Don't take what I say for granted, this is NOT financial advice. Don't spend what you can't afford to lose, and remember, patience is a key on this Crypto Market! Hold is life!
Trade safe and have a nice day!
I'll say it again:
"Before I get started with the 'main' chart I want to say that I only believe this scenario to be true after the Bear Flag/Pennant as a CONFIRMED break downwards. Until then this is all invalid. To further confirm this scenario a close bellow the Downtrend (green line with breaks) is also needed, that will be at around 8.5k, after that, I must say this will all (most likely) happen." (Copied from the description of the idea)
Targets to look like if the white box doesn't hold (most likely it won't) all the fib levels and the white horizontal lines, take special attention to the Orange lines! 8.1K to 8.2K should be a area to look to.
Quick lesson on Support/Resistance (S/R)
When a support gets broken it turns into resistance,
When a resistance gets broken it turns into support.
You can see 8.2k was holding (support) when it broke down it turned into a resistance.
When one is broken its usually tested again, thats what we saw, price should now close bellow 8.2k which was old support that is now resistance.
Hope that made sense :P
After 8.2k turned into resistance we saw the fall to 7.8k there we had temporary support, and bounced up to the resistance (8.2k) we should continue bellow it :)
Have a nice day and trade safe!
As you can see price is having trouble being above 8.2k again which is good for our deeper targets, you see 7.8k was already reached with a bigger dip.
The 7.4k and 6k are still not out of the picture, at least not until some Bullish signals.
here it is: