In this idea we will talk about resistances, because they play a big role in the price's actions. Plus we will talk about current situation.
I would start with current situation and what had changed since the last downward move:
To be honest the downward movement did not clear out the whole situation. The price lost its pivot point support and crossed below 20 MA (not significantly), but the one is still above the candlestick with the most buying pressure. This candle forms strong support zone for the price. This support zone is the main zone that forms an extreme, which I was talking about in some of my previous ideas.
The status is still the same - the Price is between two extremes.
Let's go further - Resistances:
As I said above the resistances are playing the big role in price actions. When price meeting any resistance it reverses.
121 MA, 61.8 fib, Previous support, 50 fib fan levels played out very well. I recommend to watch these levels in case price will grow, as there is a great chance they will hold the price from growing and the retracements are possible from these levels.
Indicators:
Firstly I would mention that crossovers between 20 and 121 MAs defined main trends. This fact helps us to work with indicators such as RSI, Money Flow and many others appropriately, because indicators conform these crossovers and change their behavior. I had some ideas about it. So the last crossover was bearish, which means the current trend is a downtrend, and this fact will stay valid until the price cross above 121 MA and fix above the one, with the confirmation from 20 MA, RSI and MFI, I wrote about this in my previous. Back to indicators:
RSI - during a downtrend the overbought zone for RSI is between 75 and 50 levels, as I wrote in one of my previous ideas. So when the RSI line got into this zone the one produced a bearish signal. Currently the RSI line crossed its 50 horizontal line which is not in favor for Upward resumption scenario, especially if the one will go lower.
MFI - Money flow indicator is not producing any significant signs, but I want you to pay attention to the 70 level which historically has been defined as a resistance during a downtrend. The MFI line was not able to go higher this level recent time and you should keep this level in mind.
Divergences on both indicators, which I wrote about in my previous idea, should be treated very carefully, because they were good in defining the Upward movement, but might confuse you in current situation.
Screenshot in addition: 70 resistance level of MFI performance
The whole situation:
Bearish signals overwhelm the bullish ones, but what makes the Uptrend resumption is still relevant option is the candlestick with the most buying pressure which forms strong support for the price and we can't ignore this fact. To simplify this analysis I would like to highlight the most important levels. They are:
121 MA resistance
Candle with the most buying pressure
When the price will cross any of these levels and fixes above them it should be considered as a strong signal. You can use other tools which I gave you as a confirmation or contradiction.
At last: never forget that market is not static and we might have some new signs and signals in the future, which will make situation clear or do the opposite confuse us. Currently we see the price is not able to pass through important resistances and retraces from them, declining. But the Uptrend resumption scenario is still relevant, because of the candlestick with the most buying pressure, which forms the support for the price.
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope this analysis has been useful to you and some of us will be able to turn it into profitable information.
Please hit the like button in case you like this idea. Also do not forget to write your own thoughts and send your charts in comments below.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advise.
I would start with current situation and what had changed since the last downward move:
To be honest the downward movement did not clear out the whole situation. The price lost its pivot point support and crossed below 20 MA (not significantly), but the one is still above the candlestick with the most buying pressure. This candle forms strong support zone for the price. This support zone is the main zone that forms an extreme, which I was talking about in some of my previous ideas.
The status is still the same - the Price is between two extremes.
Let's go further - Resistances:
As I said above the resistances are playing the big role in price actions. When price meeting any resistance it reverses.
121 MA, 61.8 fib, Previous support, 50 fib fan levels played out very well. I recommend to watch these levels in case price will grow, as there is a great chance they will hold the price from growing and the retracements are possible from these levels.
Indicators:
Firstly I would mention that crossovers between 20 and 121 MAs defined main trends. This fact helps us to work with indicators such as RSI, Money Flow and many others appropriately, because indicators conform these crossovers and change their behavior. I had some ideas about it. So the last crossover was bearish, which means the current trend is a downtrend, and this fact will stay valid until the price cross above 121 MA and fix above the one, with the confirmation from 20 MA, RSI and MFI, I wrote about this in my previous. Back to indicators:
RSI - during a downtrend the overbought zone for RSI is between 75 and 50 levels, as I wrote in one of my previous ideas. So when the RSI line got into this zone the one produced a bearish signal. Currently the RSI line crossed its 50 horizontal line which is not in favor for Upward resumption scenario, especially if the one will go lower.
MFI - Money flow indicator is not producing any significant signs, but I want you to pay attention to the 70 level which historically has been defined as a resistance during a downtrend. The MFI line was not able to go higher this level recent time and you should keep this level in mind.
Divergences on both indicators, which I wrote about in my previous idea, should be treated very carefully, because they were good in defining the Upward movement, but might confuse you in current situation.
Screenshot in addition: 70 resistance level of MFI performance
The whole situation:
Bearish signals overwhelm the bullish ones, but what makes the Uptrend resumption is still relevant option is the candlestick with the most buying pressure which forms strong support for the price and we can't ignore this fact. To simplify this analysis I would like to highlight the most important levels. They are:
121 MA resistance
Candle with the most buying pressure
When the price will cross any of these levels and fixes above them it should be considered as a strong signal. You can use other tools which I gave you as a confirmation or contradiction.
At last: never forget that market is not static and we might have some new signs and signals in the future, which will make situation clear or do the opposite confuse us. Currently we see the price is not able to pass through important resistances and retraces from them, declining. But the Uptrend resumption scenario is still relevant, because of the candlestick with the most buying pressure, which forms the support for the price.
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope this analysis has been useful to you and some of us will be able to turn it into profitable information.
Please hit the like button in case you like this idea. Also do not forget to write your own thoughts and send your charts in comments below.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advise.
