Anpu

BTC | How To Be Ready for Both Scenarios

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Obviously, conditions in market changed. After the price got in $7.800-7.000 zone of interest, we saw how buyers took up control. It's too early to talk about trend reversal, because the price have to break through some very strong resistances, but we need to be ready for this option. And in this idea I will give you necessary tools, to catch this reversal in time, in case it happens, also these tools will help not to be fooled, in case it does not.

The reason why I decided to consider an option of a resumption of a prior Uptrend is the strong upward momentum that we see on RSI, and candlestick with the most buying pressure, which is able to reverse the whole trend. I explained the importance of these candles in one of my previous ideas.

Let's start with the Death Cross between 20 and 121 MAs. This cross was considered as a signal of a Mid Term downtrend had come, because historically the crossovers between these two lines determined main trends, as you can see on the Chart. But currently there is an option of a resumption of the prior Uptrend, as I said above, because of a strong upward momentum.

Currently 121 MA serves as a resistance level, and if the Price Chart break upward through this line, it is a signal of an Uptrend, but historically we saw fake breakouts, and if we use this signal, we can be easily trapped.

We will consider both scenarios:

HOW TO AVOID A FAKE BREAKOUT?

We will combine the RSI indicator with the 20 MA to avoid a fake breakout through 121 MA. For this we will use 75 line on RSI indicator as a resistance, and 20 MA can be used as a final confirmation, because it works more slowly. You can see an example of how it works on the Chart, which I marked with red arrows. Pay attention to how price crossed the 121 MA from below, but RSI rejected from its 75 line (which is a resistance during a downtrend), later we saw that 20 MA rejected from 121 MA (which is a dynamic resistance level during a downtrend)

HOW TO RECEIVE A RELIABLE CONFIRMATION IN CASE THE RESUMPTION OF AN UPTREND OCCURS?

We will combine the RSI indicator and the 20 MA to get a reliable signal of a resumption of an Uptrend. Firstly I would remind that during an uptrend the RSI is mainly charting between 75 and 50 levels. And during a downtrend the RSI is mainly charting between 50 and 25 levels. This is because the RSI measures gains versus losses. In an Uptrend there are more gains than losses, keeping RSI at higher levels. Conversely, in a Downtrend there are more losses than gains, keeping RSI at lower levels. So either we see the RSI break through its 75 resistance level or the RSI will keep at higher levels (for example the RSI is charting above its 50 horizontal line). The crossover between 20 and 121 MA can be used as a confirmation of a resumption of an Uptrend. Pay attention to an example on the Chart that I marked with blue. You can see the RSI was charting above its 50 horizontal line, which is a strange behavior during a downtrend, and should be considered as a signal of a trend reversal, later we got a confirmation with a death cross between 20 and 121 MAs, after a while we got one more confirmation from RSI, which crossed its 75 resistance from below.

So is this possible that the Uptend will resume. The answer is "with such strong upward momentum yes." Anyway you will be ready to both scenarios with this set of tools.

To thank you for reading this idea I will give you a recommendation, that you might find useful "Be always prepared to all the scenarios. Do not believe in one single direction, because Market is not static. In other words, be realistic."

Please put a like on an idea in case it's been useful to you! Also share your charts and opinios below.

Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.

The information given is not a Financial Advise.
Oct 28
Comment: Currently 121 MA works as a resistance. Plus the RSI line did not even test the 75 resistance.
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+1 Reply
Anpu QuantumHedgeFund
@QuantumHedgeFund, Good Chart!
Reply
Anpu QuantumHedgeFund
@QuantumHedgeFund, Thank you for sharing your work!
Reply
The RSI situation is pretty bad right now, with both hidden and bearish divergence on the daily chart

The problems continue, but are not as bad, on the 3d chart where we still have the technical double top.
+1 Reply
Anpu This_Guhy
@This_Guhy, Thanks for comment!
+1 Reply
Anpu This_Guhy
@This_Guhy, to me it looks like a bullish sign, but I would not hurry to take it, because in my opinion the divergence might confuse. It better to watch for the RSI behavior with an overbought zone and with 75 resistance, you can see details in my idea.
Reply
@Anpu, I would say that the bullish divergence has already performed and now we are looking for the bearish divergence to perform. Since that bullish divergence already performed we now need to look at the next low to decide our bias.

We need to see a basing out with some type of bulish divergence, hidden or otherwise. Till then the bearish divergence needs to perform.
+1 Reply
Anpu This_Guhy
@This_Guhy, Firstly there is even no a bearish divergence on RSI, if we see higher highs and higher lows it's a bullish divergence. Plus it is too difficult to say if bullish divergence had already perfomed, because the momentum is very strong. Also there is a candle with the most buying pressure, that formed strong support for the price, so until the price break through this support zone, we can't talk that possibility of a resumption of an Uptrend is denied. (my opinion).
Reply
Well done!
+1 Reply
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