Previously we had a period in 6 months of an Uptrend, probably still have it. For confirmation of a continuation of this trend we need to see a retracement from the Level we have right now, or drop lower (to levels $6500, $5500 which are previous resistances) and retrace from there and continue growing. Obviously, deeper we fall, then harder it will be for the price to retrace back. Because of this, I would say that retracement from the level we have now is a necessary measure to continue an Uptrend. Let's finish with introduction at this point and see what analysis shows us.
This analysis is mainly based on two Moving Averages (40 and 121), but there are some more interesting things yet.
Start with Moving Averages, things are not complicated with them, because we see a Bearish crossover occured with these two lines. Historically crossovers are not frequent events between these lines, as you see on the Chart, it's only third in count crossover between them, so this sign can be used as a signal that we will probably face a period of a Downtrend.
121 MA is a very useful finding by itself, just look how price interact with this line. When the price is above 121 MA the one uses this line as a Dynamic Support. Conversely, 121 MA serves as a Dynamic resistance, when the Price is below. Pretty useful, isn't it?
And in case Downtrend is confirmed (confirmed means we won't see any retracement) this 121 MA will show us where is a Strong resistance points can be, just keep this tool in your mind, because if you look on the Chart, you will see that this line proved its effectiveness. (plus the fact that the price is below this line is one more signal)
Now let's talk about money and time (and BTC dominance):
Market cap on first main high
$813 billions (with 60% BTC dominance)
Market cap on second main high
$367 billions (with 65% BTC dominance)
Current Market cap
$219 billions (with 68% BTC dominance)
+ Btc dominance are growing exponentially from 13 Jan 2018
What it means for BTC and for Altseason.
We can't predict how money will come to the market (in case with growth) and how they will be divided between alts and bitcoin. So these facts are here only to show us the targets that are needed to be reached to get the price to its previous highs (simple). And one more simple thought I got is that it will require some time to bring these volumes into the market.
For difining altseason all we need is monitoring the contribution process and check btc dominance index (lower is better for alts/ but not to low, because this Market is based on BTC and if this coin doesn't fell good, then nobody will (nobody=alts)).
Conclusion: there is nothing scary for current situation, because we were growing for 6 months and a reverse to the downtrend can be a natural process. Also pay attention to how events develop in long term, blue line that I drew on the Chart clearly shows us the perspective of BTC in Long Term.
At the end I would like to ask you to leave comments with your thoughts and opinions, also share your ideas and charts. If you have the same or opposite thoughts, please write below, and we will discuss it.
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Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advise.