BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
***Please write in the comments if you see the chart correctly. I wanted to post this yesterday already but when I posted it I could see the chart. So I don't know if it is just on my end or if you also don't see the chart. In case you also don't see the chart I posted it as a snapshot below.***

Introductory Remarks:
Ok so first of all I am trying to make this your number one reference for trading BTC .

I'll try to give a super detailed analysis covering everything you need to know in order to trade BTC for the next cycle.

So, if you have any questions don’t hesitate to ask them.

And also, if you found this analysis helpful please show it some appreciation by liking, commenting and sharing this article, because I invested a lot of time into this.

I will update this idea a lot over the next couple of hours/days, because I want to highlight different indicators, timeframes, etc.

So, this first part will be covering the ins and outs of the weekly chart of BTCUSD .

Ok so know that this is out the way lets go straight to the analysis.

Part 1: The Weekly Chart
Ok so as you probably already know, I like to look at the BIG PICTURE of things.

Therefore, we are analysing the weekly log chart of BTC for today.

As you can see we are in a huge price wedge right now.

And if you take a closer look you will see that we are at the bottom of this wedge which also builds a huge support ($6,000).

Again, it is also a big psychological number, which we visited a couple of times in the past.

We are already extremely squeezed near the end of the wedge where the price must go one of 2 ways up (O1/green lines) or down (O2/red lines) .


I just used the lines to visualise the approximate expected price movement.

Ok so now that we are talking about the expected price movement, lets talk about the expected targets.

As you probably already noticed we have the same target ($35,000) entirely independent from the two possible scenarios.

The only differences will be:
  • The amount they move after breakout (O1 = 400%, O2 = 700%)
  • The time (of course we would reach the target faster with O1) and if we end up in O2 we will see even more blood for a longer amount of time.

So now the question is which scenario do you want more?

I am asking you this question because most of the beginners want to see the bull run come as fast as possible.

I know it hurts seeing all this blood, but I would prefer O2 with about 7x profit.

Conclusion Part 1:
Right now, I am just watching the market. In both cases we have approximately the same target for the next bull run, therefore I would I don’t have a problem with the price going even further down.
In both cases I will look to enter the market once we broke out of the wedge and retrace to the breakout level.

I expect the price to go even further down and why I do so I will show in the next updates.

So again, if you find this article helpful show it some love.
The next updates/parts will come over the next couple of hours/days depending on how much I get motivated from your interactions.
Comment: The snapshot if you don't see the chart correctly:
Comment: Part 2: Head and Shoulders Pattern
In the daily chart we see a head and shoulders pattern forming.

If this is forming, then it is VERY likely that O2 plays out, becouse it is a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating that the price will go down.

The pattern would have to be upside down in order to indicate that we will go up.

Conlcusion Part 2:
The day chart is indicating that we will go even lower, if this head and shouldes patterns forms itself.
Comment: If it takes as long as the last one, we are talking about 2 weeks until we see the full pattern.
Comment: Part 3: Volume
There is basically no volume at the $6,000 level.

But the thing is there is no volume in the whole red box until about $4,200 level.

Conclusion Part 3:
If we break through this wedge at the bottom we will have a freefall until the $4,200 level.
Comment: Part 4: Ichimoku
The Cloud is very thick at the $7,100 level which indicates STRONG resistance.

This plays hand in hand with the head and shoulders pattern.

The resistance forms the head of the second shoulder.

On top of that the Moving Avergages have crossed which indicates a momentum change.

They indicate that we have bearish momentum right now.

Conclusion Part 4:
The Ichimoku Cloud is indicating, that it is very likely, that the head and shoulders pattern forms itself.
Comment: DMI showing that we are in a strong downtrend with no reversal in sight
Comment: If we just take the history and paste it at where we are right now, you also see that we first fall through the wedge before the next bullrun starts.
Comment: If we break through the wedge at the top then this would be the EW count for it. With the first bull run target at $14,000.
Comment: In terms of sine waves, we are starting to curve up:
@aamonkey Thanks for your effort. Looking at the big chart i would go for red and say: Partly 5800 with a high chance of 4300. The latest FOMO-spike are so cute and rising longs currently present theirselves on a silver tray, crying for liquidation. This is pure gambling in some kind of slaughterhouse with puppets played by a few. I'm looking forward for a sustained reversal in 2019.

Have a nice weekend!

Today's pump when shorts got squeezed I see it as dead cat bounce which may follow us down to 5k or even more.

In the month of June 2018 btc dropped from 77ish to 6k then bounced to aprox 6700 and then dumped to 58k level clear example of dead cat bounce.

Now it is forming HnS too with it.

Ready to slip down with double force as rightly indicated by you may be to 4k.

Thnx for nice chart and showing it from various perspective.
Unfortunetely I can't see the chart. It's empty for me...
+1 Reply
aamonkey nunobispo
@nunobispo, Thank you finally someone who stated if he could see it or not. Thank you now I know thaught it is only on my end. But I added a snapshot of the chart in order people can't see the chart.
nunobispo aamonkey
@aamonkey, I managed to find what is the problem. It's the scale itself. If you scroll down the scale values, by clicking and draging, the drawings will became visible at a certain point.
@aamonkey, Thanks for the snapshot!
Nice charts and good explanation! Following..
This is how I count the Elliot Wave

I don't understand why we HAVE to touch the the trendline to bottom out. We don't.
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