Alts improved today, but i am still not very convinced of a move up. The just doesn't feel good. Also weekend ahead of us. Like we have seen a few times lately, some significant moves during the weekend. Since i see weekends where most manipulation happens, it can easily be both ways at this point. So i am still looking down, betting less convinced of it.
ETH has shown the way several times past half year. So maybe we could watch that one as well. If we see a decent break of 265ish, we could continue to go up.
Bitcoin also seems to have made a bigger uptrend now. So maybe good to watch that support line as well. If this breaks and we drop some, we could see a small if we touch the 8000ish again. This could potentially trigger another drop to the 7800/50. This could create a higher low there. So this could still turn into a scenario. and force of the drop might help us saying if it will turn again or if we will continue to drop. Reaction of alts might help as well.
So at this point, difficult to say. It was easier a few days ago to look down, but we did that already and bounced up from that triangle support successfully. So it all fits the picture that we just continue to go up. But as mentioned, the just doesn't feel good. Together with alts, also seeing growth there with a few and not all, also like showing not everyone is convinced yet like me :).
So it's waiting a bit the coming few hours i think, to see if this on the left holds or not. This small step might give us an answer to the next few bigger steps. Wish i could be a bit clearer, but it is what it is.
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It's just that i also always zoom in on lower time frames to find more signs that might tell me if a pattern might become a fake one or a trap or something real. Because of this i sometimes go against the crowd and see highs when the market looks up and see lows when the market is bearish.
Anyway, there is no denying of the bullish shape here, reason why i keep showing the triangle past week. Would be stupid to deny it IMO. Being stubborn or biased is usually a bad idea. So with the lower time frames, i try to predict the chances of a certain move/pattern. Below the 8100 it was like 60/40 for the bears. Now it should be like 65/35 for the bulls, but because of the low volume on the lower time it's still 50/50 for me.
Let's say if that small plays out it becomes 45/55 for the bears and a break of 7800ish it will be 60/40 for the bears and like each 100 points we drop it will increase with 5% that we get to see the 7200 or even much lower around 6500.
8300/8400 has been a big resistance level. So if we see a good volume break, 9K plus become very likely. Maybe even 80% if we really see big volume at the breakout. The lower the volume the lower those odds. Now we have 8200 as a high, so above that level it will be like 55/45 for the bulls. Above 8300 like 60/40.
With these thoughts in the back of my mind, with my day trades or scalping, i determine what size, the Risk Reward and where i should put my stop levels.
So lets say i see a bearish pattern on a lower time frame, and we are in the 60/40 territory in favor of the bears, i think odds are on my side and worth the shot. A similar H&S in 60/40 territory in favor of the bulls, i might sit it out.
I think it's very important to have as many odds in your favor when doing a trade. Than it can still fail, but a lower % than when having the odds against you. It sounds easy and logical and it actually is this easy and logical. But something i have said many times, we are our own worst enemy. Instead of letting a setup come TO you, we sometimes try to find them when they are not even there.
Also important to know, the bigger your trading time frame, the higher the time frames you look at should be.
Weekends it's often a lot of noise, so fake moves happen. 8050ish should be a short term resistance now.
The triangle is closing in so we should get a real answer coming days. Because the range is getting smaller, each small step now could potentially be the beginning of a bigger move. So it is getting more important now it seems with each hour passing.
Alts improved earlier today but the past hours they started to hesitate again. Funding round at Bitmex is also ending now, with the funding price being a decent amount it usually has some short term influence on the price. With a drop just before it ends and a move up after it ends. So this small drop just now could be because of that.
It's becoming more difficult to judge each day passning. Enough reasons to think of top formation the past 2 weeks, but we also have reasons to say it can go up. Are still not getting any real signs. So hope that a break of this range will give us one.
8400 seems to be a mid-term resistance and 7600/7700 is probably THE support zone.
So bears are in favor now on the low time frame. If the 8050ish breaks, than it will go back to neutral again. Break of 8120 will put the bulls in favor again again.
As long as we don't see big volume increase and as long as that trend line on the right holds, this can simply move up again. Wouldn't be the first time past weeks.
So think coming 15/30 might give us an answer.