I've simplified this chart to show two very different scenarios. One paints a bullish picture (blue line) and the other a bearish (red line).
Let's also distinguish that BTC has NOT left the uptrend channel from 6.5k. It hit the bottom parallel, yes, but it has not yet left it. So technically it is still forming the main wave up from 6.5k. Until it breaks the bottom of this channel, and stays below it, it is still in the wave up. So despite the recent drop getting our heart racing ... it likely isn't a correction yet (not at the grand scale).
Look at the magnitude of corrections over the 6 to 7 months ... at least +2000 point drops! Not 800 points. Now don't get me wrong, this could be the start of a bigger drop, possible ... but I only really have confirmation if it leaves the channel.
So it's possible that those who bought at the low of 9182 are about to gain some good profits, as the next rise within the channel will likely crack the 10k mark! After 10.4k .... 11.6k is the big target. To be clear ... I am long right now on ECH and BCH.
However, if BTC exits the channel, and I have confirmation of the next wave starting (down), I will be prepared to move to cash, and wait for a bottom.
There are many potential scenarios, for instance that BTC is in an impulse wave up (blue line), and it has started wave 2, which could take us down to the 8k level ... but we can talk about that after we have confirmation. Right now, I'm HODLING, as I do not have confirmation this is a down wave.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make investment decisions on this information. For educational purposes only.
Let's also distinguish that BTC has NOT left the uptrend channel from 6.5k. It hit the bottom parallel, yes, but it has not yet left it. So technically it is still forming the main wave up from 6.5k. Until it breaks the bottom of this channel, and stays below it, it is still in the wave up. So despite the recent drop getting our heart racing ... it likely isn't a correction yet (not at the grand scale).
Look at the magnitude of corrections over the 6 to 7 months ... at least +2000 point drops! Not 800 points. Now don't get me wrong, this could be the start of a bigger drop, possible ... but I only really have confirmation if it leaves the channel.
So it's possible that those who bought at the low of 9182 are about to gain some good profits, as the next rise within the channel will likely crack the 10k mark! After 10.4k .... 11.6k is the big target. To be clear ... I am long right now on ECH and BCH.
However, if BTC exits the channel, and I have confirmation of the next wave starting (down), I will be prepared to move to cash, and wait for a bottom.
There are many potential scenarios, for instance that BTC is in an impulse wave up (blue line), and it has started wave 2, which could take us down to the 8k level ... but we can talk about that after we have confirmation. Right now, I'm HODLING, as I do not have confirmation this is a down wave.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make investment decisions on this information. For educational purposes only.
Comment:
Note the tiny gold line in the middle of the chart. This is a trend line measured off the two previous bottoms starting from April 26th. It might be tough to see, but it's in the channel, and around where I post the fibo series, April 6 to May 9, from around 8640 to 9040. We bounced off that line this morning. That in fact was my highest potential target for a bounce. Now I'm not saying it will stop here, especially considering I don't see volume coming in ... but, it's possible after a retest, we could reverse into a small ABC recovery. On the other hand if we break the previous low, and break that gold support line, we almost certainly will descend to the 8800/8900 level. As usual, please do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.