VictorCobra

Say Bye To The Bear Market If This Line Is Broken

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This will be my final post for the day. I made a video idea about this recently, and a subsequent update...but if you don't like watching videos for whatever reason, here it is in text form.

As you can see in this chart, we broke the two major downtrends I was looking at in Bitcoin back in February. Once we broke both the bright red and the bright blue, I went long on LTC. A lot of people don't take the linear chart seriously, but I use it just fine and still make some great trades. This is one of them. Since then, the market has been on a nice uptrend, with every selloff getting absorbed pretty well by buyers. HOWEVER, we have not seen any large buying candles in quite a while. This indicates that buyers are still hesitant, and are not convinced that the bottom is in. This makes sense, since we still have not made a higher high. And now we have our final linear resistance to contend with (dark red).

We just got rejected from that resistance yesterday. This doesn't surprise me. However, if we don't drop substantially here, it will mean buyers are getting less fearful. PERHAPS we can break through sooner rather than later. I think it's more likely we see a drop in the short term, but I've been pleasantly surprised by the market recently. Either way, it's not a buy until we break out from that final resistance. We already made it out from a similar resistance on Coinbase, and we actually broke out from the ATH - November breakdown resistance there first before we did on Bitfinex. This COULD mean that a breakout is just around the corner. And if we do break this resistance and make a higher high, it will be safe to say that the bottom is MOST LIKELY in. That target can really be anywhere from 4500 and up. We have to reassess if and when we get there.

Here is the similar resistance on Coinbase. I've drawn it fairly conservatively. No matter how you draw it, we've broken out:

Bears could easily take advantage here though, because this line has produced very powerful breakdowns in the past. Obviously if 3700-3800 and 3500 fail to hold, it won't be looking good for Bitcoin . I think a correction down to the 3700-3800 area would make sense here, since it would allow us to test that broken diagonal resistance on Coinbase as support. We can also simply break out all of a sudden. Nothing has to play out perfectly.

Another thing...longs seem to be at a relative low, while shorts still have a ways to fall to lower supports. This doesn't necessarily predict a price move, but a break of our resistance would result in a huge surge in longs, and likely shorts stagnating or opening at higher levels.

****Interestingly enough, on Binance, we made two highs recently - $4198 and $4069. Those are the exact same two highs from January. The selling reaction hasn't been nearly as strong (so far), but it's odd to me that these resistances are so exact, and perfectly hit with precision. This means one of two things:
1) The price is being intentionally suppressed by those who want to confuse the market
2) People are so fearful of a dump that they stack large quantities of sells near previous highs.
3) Traders are fairly confident that the resistance will NOT be broken.
These things actually seem fairly bullish to me, if a bit suspicious.

Just something to note. This is not financial advice by any means, or even really a trade setup. This is my opinion based on what I'm seeing in the charts. I could very well be wrong, and that's okay. This is a learning experience.

However, I HAVE made some great calls recently on alts:
Called the ONT rally well in advance
Also called the recent VET surge in advance
Same with ICX, BAT, XLM , LTC...SLT...ENG...the list goes on.
Even anticipated the stagnation in GVT (sometimes the hardest thing to do is let go of a position you've been in for a while) and sold it for ONT . I also sold my WTC for SLT/XLM a little while ago, which has been a good trade so far. There are plenty other good moves I've made since September, but I won't list them all here. Won't do that unless I have to prove a point for my ego's sake. There are also a couple things I've gotten completely wrong (BNB, for instance...thought it would correct more).

Some of the calls I've made haven't quite panned out (yet), but I've certainly been more right than wrong recently, and I'm proud of myself for getting better at analysis, becoming more confident, and being able to somewhat navigate this crazy market. I'm actually in the middle of writing a bit of a handbook for crypto trading (with the way I do things and see analysis - which is a bit unique).

Thanks for your support! Wish I could continue doing this indefinitely, but I'm starting to do much less play-by-play analysis (since it's so time consuming and I'm trying to have a life).

-Victor Cobra


Comment: As you can see, we got rejected right on the money. The red X's mark where I'd like to see some serious buying, if we break down here. If these levels fail to hold, the bottom may not be in, and I will have to reassess my view on the market.
Comment: On Coinbase, I'd like to see the $3680-3700 area hold, as its been a VERY strong reaction zone since December. It also coincides nicely with the broken resistance (pink).
Comment: Rejected again today, so the line is confirmed as resistance. Declining volume says we drop soon, but Bitcoin dominance keeps slowly decreasing. If bulls can show strength here and break us out, obviously it would be a good sign.
Comment: One thing to note about the volume. Low volume can happen before a push up as well. We're simply in a pinch within a large triangle, so traders are awaiting the breakout or breakdown. What's difference about this time versus when we were at 6K: We're consolidating right below a resistance level, rather than right on a long term support level. Good to keep in mind, if we do happen to push up in the short term.
Comment: Really riding this line...
Comment: Looks like buying on that breakout (even though we didn't have a big move initially) would have indeed been a good idea. Congrats to anyone who bought :)

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