VictorCobra
Long

BAT - Possible Breakout Opportunity

BITTREX:BATBTC   Basic Attention Token / Bitcoin
It's been a while since I posted a BATBTC chart, but here we are. I've been pretty neutral on this pairing for a while, and I don't hold a position at this time. However, I want to post this, as I see a pretty big trading opportunity soon.

Unlike some other coins, BAT has actually NEVER been bullish against Bitcoin . It was dumped immediately when it came on the market, and has been in a symmetrical triangle ever since, which often would indicate further downside. However, I think sentiment is generally positive for BAT, so I think this is more likely to break out to the upside once the market confirms its reversal. We are inching closer and closer to the long term triangle resistance. If it's broken, I wouldn't be surprised to see a MASSIVE spike in price and volume . Of course, the triangle can break down if there is a sudden loss of confidence in the market, but this is a LONG setup.

Potential BUY setup:
If triangle is broken.

TARGETS:
Next triangle resistance (green X), in the 5500 area.
6000+ if that breaks.

This is not financial advice. This is a potential setup I'm seeing, and I'm just curious to see if it plays out. I don't hold BAT at this time.

-Victor Cobra
Comment: There's also an intermediate target around 4400 (first orange resistance). Unfortunately, TV wasn't letting me edit my idea so I have to post it here in the updates.
Comment: How about that timing, eh?
Trade active: Entry: 3788
Small trading position, just for funzies.
Comment: Could've gotten a better entry, but oh well. Seems to be holding pretty well, despite the drop in Bitcoin, and volume is increasing. I'll leave this open for now. This is a high reward setup, since a breakout of this triangle should produce a pretty strong impulse, even though we're already 10% up for the day.
Comment: Broke the resistance for the second time today. If it holds, we should see some crazy moves.
Comment: Because this happened sooner than I even expected when I posted this analysis, the first target should be 4600 (first orange resistance), though we're at 4400 right now, which should also serve as some resistance. We'll see how powerful this breakout really is, and if we can reverse the long term trend.
Comment: And 4600 has been cleared. Next stop - 5600
Trade closed: target reached: Out at 5000. 5200 was close enough to the second orange resistance. May go higher (even up towards 6K-7K) but this was a short term trade for me. Happy with my 40% gains.
Comment: Got rejected pretty hard up there. Glad I took my profit. If we can confirm the broken triangle as support, that would be a good sign that we can work on the upper resistances.
Comment: Looks like we've held above the broken triangle so far, so we should be good for another move up. I'm done trading this for now, but we could see an even bigger move if 5600-5700 breaks. If that happens 6000 will probably finally fall, and we may even spring all the way up to 10000. I know it sounds crazy, but that's what can happen when an asset finally explores a new range.
Comment: If we do end up venturing lower from here, we could officially test the triangle as support (currently in the high 3800's). If that doesn't hold, then it won't look good for BAT, and it'll probably stay in its range for a longer period of time.
Comment: I'm still sitting on the sidelines for now, but I think it's important to note that BAT has not EVER closed a weekly candle above the light blue triangle. If it can do that this week, I think it would confirm a trend change, and we will FINALLY have some sustained positive price action.
Comment: We closed our first weekly candle EVER outside the blue triangle. We're also outside of the secondary resistance. We still need to break the second orange resistance (still around 5500-5600) in order to continue to the upside. If we break back below the blue triangle, currently between 3600 and 3700, this will prove to have been a fake rally, and new lows will be possible.
Trade active: I entered again with around 7% more BAT than I had originally. Could have done better, but I was trying to manage risk. We're holding this level fairly well, so it's a risk I'm willing to take with a smallish portion of my portfolio.
Trade closed manually: Quick profit :) Possible this will have a bigger breakout soon, but I wanted to establish a position elsewhere. Let's see if BAT can continue hold above the broken resistance. If we do see a bigger breakout, it would be a good sign for the whole market.
Comment: New analysis:

Related Ideas

Moveling up again ;)
What do you think?
Reply
@FloTi, As long as the broken triangle (blue) holds as support, I think BAT can make an attempt to explore a new range - which means above 7000 and reaching 10000 and above. Could go parabolic because a break of that resistance would be extremely strong. We first need to break the next orange resistance in the 5000’s. Nothing it guaranteed though. XLM broke out of its triangle to the upside last fall....but then failed to sustain and headed to new lows. If BAT falls back into its triangle, that would be a bad sign.
Reply
FloTi VictorCobra
@VictorCobra, thank you for the explanation :))
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