TradingShot
Long

BITCOIN The Golden 51%-49% Ratio! 600 days of Bull Market left!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is a really simple Bitcoin study on which I calculate the remaining days of the current Bull Cycle we are in based on the Top, Bottom and Halving of each Cycle. These parameters are effectively used to distinguish the Bull from the Bear Cycles. Tops are obviously where the Bull phase ends and Bear starts, while the Bottoms are where the Bear phase ends and the Bull starts.


** The 51%-49% Ratio and the important of the Halvings **
The focus of this study is the Bull Cycle. As you see on the chart there is a striking similarity on each Cycle. The phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically we can claim that the Halving seems to be the middle of each Bull Cycle.


** So where are we now? **
Based on the above ratio and with the 3rd Halving scheduled on May 12th, 2020, we can calculate that the first phase (51%) of the current Bull Cycle will last around 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018). The 49% which based on the previous two cycles has been the second phase should therefore last around 505 days, placing the Top of the current Bull Cycle in early October 2021! This means that there are around 600 days of Bull Cycle left!!

Of course there are and will be several other parameters that can influence the cycle (we saw that on the April-June 2019 parabolic explosion) but this is a good (and so far very accurate) pattern that long term Bitcoin investors can follow. It certainly answers the question "is it too late to buy?" though!

Do you agree with this estimate of have another pattern in mind? Let me know in the comments section!

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Comments

Wow man wtf people been stealing even idea's now on trading view they are such poor thing
+2 Reply
TradingShot hostrip07
@hostrip07, Luckily the violator is suspended and his idea removed.
Reply
god damn it...this is happening right now. This TA is awesome
+1 Reply
Any changes here considering the recent drop?
+1 Reply
Quality fundamental analysis mate! We seem to have another 2yr until the next top. Probably another 1yr of steady gains before the bubble picks up.
+1 Reply
LMAO this didn't age well at all..
+1 Reply
This is an attractive hypothesis but if we get a US/worldwide recession in the next year then that will surely kick the next bull run a few years down the road, perhaps to 2022/2023. All the more time to accumulate coins while they are still cheap. I mean, I think there could be another run-up pre-halving (driven mostly by manipulation) but price could capitulate afterward and if a recession hit then we could be in an extended bear market for a few years. Just don't get caught with your bag of coins on the way down, let the dust settle on the halving, then buy back in at a lower price.
+1 Reply
Hopefully or the halving is already priced in and it dumps on us... I don't need to get my hopes up I'm a trader and investor I make money either way.
+1 Reply
patrickfx Gold_Rush
@Gold_Rush lol, it’s not included but u will see
+1 Reply
Nice study. Thanks for the effort!
+1 Reply
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