Today's low could be it already, but those chances are very low, maybe 25% at this point. If we break 5080ish, think it will become like 40%, above 5120 like 65% and above 5200ish we can start to assume the correction has finished already and we can continue the rally again on the higher time frame.
I have drawn a red line as well, have a feeling it might wick towards the low and than bounce up again. It's just an assumption, but i have my reasons for thinking this. Still think the 4800ish is the ideal spot for Bitcoin' to make it's low and continue the rally. A week ago i talked about the range of 4600/4900 with my main focus around 4700. This 4700ish has moved up to 4800ish.
To understand the rest of the chart, please read my previous analysis. Most important maybe to keep in mind is this:
Of course anything can happen, but i think those chances are like 20%. A break of 4800 would like increase that to 40% and below 4700 it will start to get dangerous.
Also on the left below resistance and on the right also looks like a bear flag. So a break of 5100ish could bring us to the next support around 5130. Other levels to watch are already mentioned.
BTC showed some clear rejection from the high, increasing the odds that we might see a Bart move down again as well. This move doesn't change much on the bigger picture, for the short term, i have lost my road map a bit from the past week or so. So i need to figure out, after the next move, what would be the most likely scenario. If this Bull flag plays out as a Bart move down, then i have a decent road map again, if we break up, i need to adjust and think the correction might be over already.
I have looked back at the "bear" flag above and i have found several signs that i simply missed when making this update. Simply drew my conclusion too soon, without checking all the yellow cards.
Anyway, seems the channel is a legit thing here, since it kept moving below it before the break up and now getting resistance again. Think the breakout level is around 5250ish now, so as long as we don't break up above that level, we could still move down again and test the 50xx support area. I am not sure anymore if we will see the 4800ish level.
For the Bart, when comparing to the 5450 dump, price should stay below the 5225/30. A clear difference, is that triangle, but time frame is very low so could be meaningless. But good to keep in mind for the next time we get at a similar spot.
Also just now, when i logged in again, just during this small dump. Normally when the support breaks after a dump like that from 5270 to 5180, i am very surprised it did not continue dumping, because these nasty moves always played out that way. But then i saw some support buying and also a 4mil market buy around 5195, which is very unusual at a stage like this, when a Bart is about to happen.
So i think its safe to say, we have more players in the market now, fighting each other. Which is good, bringing things more in balance again, maybe.
At this point, still not sure what the next step will be. We can see that channel is still legit, still giving a hard time to the bulls. So i think this is the only thing we can really go on for now. My best guess, since volume on this 100 point drop was almost the same during the 200 point pump, i think the bears are taking over again.
So a real close on the 1h at least above the channel could mean we can go higher. Think a drop below the 5180/70 will bring us back to the 50xx zone.
In general, still think it would be much too soon to expect the rally to start already. Likely to see it in the 4800/5400 zone for another week or so. So i think patience will pay off.