Bitcoin Ready to Break Up or Test Support one More Time

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Current movement sucks a bit :), difficult moves to predict, so normally i don't want to do anything. But to give you something to work with, i am going to do an analysis with a few scenario's, for the bulls and bears.

1) I have drawn 3 charts here. The one on the left, is already moving as suggested past hours. Made that last bounce up from that curved line. My assumption here is, we might see another stop hunt. Already breaking down now as i am writing this, but no big volume yet. I got a feeling price is getting supported again like a week ago at 5200 (read those analysis to understand it). Already seeing an attempt to break that curved line but again it's holding. So we might see that scenario play out. The level of the shake out on the upside, is an assumption this time, don't have much to go on this time.
Important here is, i assume the support zone around 5200/5180 has been created as a big stop zone level, so when we see a Bart move, this zone will trigger a snowball of stops trigger to dump the price.

2) In the middle we can see, that channel i showed a few days ago, is till legit and giving resistance. Bulls just don't seem to be able to break above it. But as long as we stay above 5200/5180, there is a chance to break up. This support zone , is also an important level from scenario 1. The channel gives a target around 5000, the possible triangle more like 4700. However, past days i moved my focus from 4700 to 4800. So also not sure about what it could do if we see a big drop coming days.

3) Bigger picture, this one has not changed at all. I am still looking up with a lot of confidence. As long as we don't see a very big volume drop , as long as we don't see a big break of 4800ish, i have no reason at all to think the rally is already over. I have mentioned the bigger picture scenario a few times already, so i assume you know what the game plan is. If not, read some of the previous analysis to know.

So it's safe to say, i think chances are very small to see it rally from current levels already. The green line, is maybe the best case for the bulls i think, small stop hunt to like 5100 and see a V shape on the low time frame back up above 52xx and than slowly continue the rally, like they did around the 4000 just before the rally to 5K. This is something what can happen, but i don't think it's likely. Think this consolidation needs more tests of support levels. Doesn't have to be 4800 per se, but at least a few more times around 4950/5050.

Previous analysis:

Comment: Bulls are really keeping it here at the high of the resistance now. Also seems the rejections are getting smaller. So starts to feel, my fake breakout might not be that likely. OI is normally still a bit too low, but not that low like 2 weeks ago when i said it's too soon for a rally. So had the same thought as back then, but now less sure about it.
Volume is increasing a bit, which could be the start of something. When zooming out it's still too low, unless when 5300 breaks maybe, and we don't see a short squeeze again, but more like a normal rally. With volume increasing even more, i might be completely off with assuming its too soon to rally. Like i was saying around the 4000 few weeks ago. With the first and then second attempt to break the 4000/4200. Volume can remain low, but with like each 50 point move up, volume needs to keep increasing, with the volume squeezing up when the real breakout begins. That level might be 5400/5500 now.

I just don't know at this point, i kept assuming we might drop, testing at least 5000/5100, but the longer we hang against the high like this, the bigger the chances we really break up.
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A good one, keep it up man :-)!
I think the current is similar to the bottom of 2015. What do you think? Please give me a advice.

botje look at that wick bro on bitmex.. rip..
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I agree David they are two scenarios on the short term. Either Resistance test and tight consolidation or pull back near the Support. For me it has bee a pretty steady uptrend and this uptrend has two choices based on the fractals below:

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We focused on the Ma50/Ma200 cross here. It's our first video and would love to improve. What do you think?
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@Sherem, For me it looks 5425 is the immediate target.
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Nice call dude.
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