Bitcoin Going to Make a FOMO Triangle or a Real Bull flag

botje11 Updated   
Past days i showed a chart on the lower time frame, in my updates, which had been working out quite well, but things have changed since yesterday. My assumption short term was rejection around 5300/50 and than dump to 4600/4900 zone. But instead of breaking support, each attempt to break the support got some big buys from some bulls around the 5150/5200 zone. The big resistance at 5250 eventually broke after several rejections. I saw very big buys at the 5150/5200 zone at 2 moments, from the maybe 6 moments (could not watch all of them so don't know what happen the other moments).
My theory now is, this is support buying, trying to hold a drop, to keep price above 5250 for some whales to close long (and maybe open shorts, but less likely). But again, it's just a theory and i have my reasons for this.

It's clear the market is very strong and past 2 days i mentioned that the longer we hang around the high and bove 5150ish, the more bullish it gets. But at this point it is also starting to take too long as well. Objectively, it looks good, stable and strong so far. Each dump getting bought up very fast, with bears actually failing at each attempt to dump the price. It has been a very long time ago to see it this stable at a high price.

I showed a chart in my channels yesterday, showing what i think is the triangle in this chart, as we can see on the left. So my assumption it already broke up but so far no real follow through. This is why i am saying, it is actually taking too long with the continuation of the rally. Normally it should have happened already if the market was super bullish, should have happened 2 days ago or it should have happened like 10 hours ago.

In the middle we can see another triangle, which looks legit with a big support around the 5150 from the past days. So this 5150ish should be considered as a key level, as a neckline. The middle chart is what i think might be the most likely scenario. This triangle has a target around 5450, where i think a big drop might happen after reaching it's target. Now obviously, if we do see a push up, for my theory a big short squeeze should not happen. Meaning, if we see a 400 point short squeeze, this theory/TA of the middel chart will not be valid. If we see some normal movement up towards the 5450 and see like a bull flag shape form there, then it might play out. What sometimes is a good sign to get some confirmation, is to see a small squeeze up and an immediate rejection. Showing some eager bulls who want to sell or bears who want to short.

Another realistic version is the chart on the right. Seeing it moving up in small steps towards the 5300/50 within the shape of a double top. We can see the double bottom target is also around that zone as well. So for a double top we should see rejection WITH some volume increase.

Chart on the left, we can see that curved blue line, that shows the bullish momentum. So a break of that shape would decrease the bullish momentum to more neutral.

At the moment i give both options, the middle and the right chart a realistic outcome, with the triangle maybe being my favorite. Because that version would be an ideal bull trap for the short term. My mid-term view is up as you know, that has not changed the past months and also not now. Still expect another wave up (read my previous analysis). But short term, i give it a bigger chance to see that shake out take place towards the 4600/4900 zone. So the market can start to build up momentum and real support again from that zone and up. Open Intrest has been increasing the past 24 hours, since we broke the 5250, which gives bulls a bigger chance as well, but still not the level i think we need for a real second rally. Should be more like 550/650 mil. Also alts still look decent, but they are not showing 'growth' as they used to do in 2018 during a stable sideways Bitcoin.

If we see a break of the 5100/5400 zone, i will make another higher time frame chart, for now i thought a zoom in is much more useful. For the day traders among us, as i mentioned in my channels as well, the first day or 2 after a big move are always very easy to trade. But the whole period after, until a real breakout happens, are the worst to day trade. Those are the moments traders loose most of their money, so don't get trapped. It's either scalping IMO or have an idea for a small swing trade with wider stops and good entries. Trading this middle zone around 5200/50 sucks :).

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Previous analysis:
Alts not really following this, which is not a good sign for the bulls. But back in July, alts were dropping during the bitcoin rally to 8500. But back then, they were dropping at the first wave already (like 4000/5300 now).

Looks like another move up can come. In my bearish version, we should see one of these 2 lines happen. Think if 5510ish breaks, i might be wrong with my assumption.

So for the bulls i would say, keep an eye out as well, do not give away all the profit, you can always re enter. For bears, i would sit and wait, big chance it will take many hours aven in this range. Past months we had Bart moves that took several hours at the high, so dont focus on a perfect price.

Wow, what a dump :), already being accused of pumping and dumping the market myself :)

ETH was getting dumped from the high, big rejection and was getting dumped a few minutes before Bitcoin did. It touched 5110, but since it was a wick we can consider it as the 5150 has held once again. Already a big bounce touching 5320. This bounce is too big normally. So i still think my whole plan is ago, but can't say for sure if this was already the shake out or not. Normally it's too small, but this bounce is also too strong.

A break of 5320/40 could already mean the drop is over. We have a new resistance at 5400/380 now, but think a break of the 5340ish could already mean the bears or bulls taking profit, is over already.
5240ish is probably support again. So the only thing that makes sense now, is seeing a range between 5240/5340 now. So inside this range being neutral

This is for all the people, who don't understand what i mean when talking about bots. Bots doesn't mean manipulation, simply means bots that are programmed. If this ain't proof of that, than i don't know what is

Doesn't mean it will go like this, just showing how identical everything went, from the high to the dump and the bounce. Now we are at a new stage, so if the 5320/40 breaks, than this fractal becomes very likely
The blue one was a bit different than the previous one, maybe that's a small sign that this time it will move different. Anything above 5280 is simply support for this bounce. Below 5260 it gets more neutral and if it can touch 5240, it will become more like a normal bear flag.

The 5150ish is still the key level here. Below that level a bigger drop is very likely to happen.

What is bugging me a bit, is ETH. That one already reached it's target of that double top and has bounced up from a support zone as well. If ETH keeps moving inside of this possible bear flag and bitcoin staying below the 5350, than we could be moving here for another half day or so and eventually see another break down.

So this big bounce has messed up the confidence for a bigger shake out, but think these guidelines are very solid now.

Here we can see, that sometimes the smallest signs can be the biggest confirmation.
Small fight going on past hours inside the flag. ETH looked like it wanted to break up, but again failing. BTC made a small wedge but also failing. Think a break of the red zones will mean the correction up will be bigger, if the flags break, probably another drop towards my ideal zone 4600/4900.

So even if we go up, only a good break of 5200ish could mean the correction is over already. Otherwise, it will all just be a retest before dropping again.

Was a weak attempt to break up, not enough power and now failure again. Current bounce seems to be something. This could become a low now. Don't think its THE low yet, at least don't think that now. A realistic option now would be, seeing an ABC.
If ETH can break that red resistance now with this push, it might trigger that ABC.

It's not really the same from the start to end, but this part is almost the same. This one suggests this is the low and we continue the rally again. This last drop stopped a bit too early now, so could be i need to change my view about waiting for 4800/4700 prices. My range was 4600/4900, but of course was hoping for the 4700/4800. But even if this is the low, it will probably take a while before the market rallies again.
Think if it rallies withing a few hours, than more like to be an ABC. If it takes many hours and OI rises in the mean time, than maybe could be like this fractal

So far following this path, but at the moment i think we might see something else. Think we had some good moves past days and since it's weekend, perfect moment to take a small break now. Only moment i will likely do something is when we see 5200ish to probably short if it we see rejection or go long in the range i have been waiting for the past week around 4600/4900.

Will try to write a new analysis later today or tomorrow

New ETH analysis:


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