Bitcoin Weekend Update, ABC Correction

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Last update i talked about taking a break this weekend, glad to see the market thought the same thing :). Going to do a small weekend update here, but you also need to know that my general view has not changed. The whole plan past week was to see a shake out happen, which we finally did.

So for now, my assumption of the ABC' on the left still stands and the ABC' on the right as well. No reason to think otherwise at this moment. Yesterday i hoped to see like 4980/5000 and then up to 5200ish to complete this ABC'. Instead it went up a little bit more and turned into what seems to be a bearish wedge . Volume picture of the wedge seems to be correct as well, but the past half day, it just doesn't want to drop . So i am starting to think this wedge , which has a target around te 4900, might fail. A drop to 4900, could also become a double bottom btw.
That green support on the right around 5030/50 has supported Bitcoin' price several times now. Think the longer it stays above it, the bigger the chance to see it move up from here. The 5120 seems to be a solid resistance now as well, so i think we can assume that channel with the 5030/5120 range seems to be legit. So a break of these levels should show some follow through of another 90 points (difference of the range).

So ideally we see Bitcoin' hit 5200 and then dump again towards the 4800. In the green zone we want to see Bitcoin' find some good support with a few small bounces and then see it slowly turn up again. In this scenario, we want to see volume move into a certain shape as well. The red line is like an indication of how it should move. So after seeing some successful support around 4800, see volume drop and then if we see it bounce up a bit to see volume increase a bit. Then drop a little and then see price move up more and volume slowly increasing as well. The volume increases don't have to be big, but there really need to happen, extremely important. A break of 5200/5300 should show a big volume increase. If we see something like that, we could really see another big rally happen coming weeks. It is very unlikely to assume the rally is already over. Of course anything can happen, but i think those chances are like 20%. A break of 4800 would like increase that to 40% and below 4700 it will start to get dangerous.

Assuming it will all play out, it's hard to say what the potential is. I have a few possible targets, which are 5900/6500/6900. But these are a bit subjective, but worth having them prepared. Normally, the 80% chance i mentioned for seeing another rally, should have a minimum above the previous but should at least reach like 5600/5800. A lot will depend on how strong the breakout would be when breaking 5200/5400.

A party pooper could be a big volume break of 4800/4700, so even more volume than the drop from the 5450 high.
Will try to post a new analysis again tomorrow.

Thanks for all the likes and support again for my previous post :)

Previous analysis:
Comment: New Alt market cap analysis:

Comment: New XRP analysis:

Comment: Going nicely as planned so far, ABC being complete now, already got a little bit of rejection from the high yesterday. Already not a standard bull flag. Moving inside of another small channel. if that one breaks, we should be headed towards the 5100. I think this zone, the 5100/5080 will be the first big step towards the 4800 area.
At this point, i just don't have anything real to think of something else.

OI did go up though, a decent amount actually. Healthy level to move up another 100/200 points. But i assume, the increase might be used to fuel another drop before the real move up starts. Without complicating things, we have that channel on the right to follow now.
Comment: Nice :), going perfectly as planned and to the point. Getting scared of myself even for being this precise ;)

Anyway, the channel on the left broke, making a flag below it. So at this point no reason to think it will move up again. Think a move above 5070/80, would put it back in the channel and that way would take the weight off of this drop, at least for the short term. There is some support now, with that last wick we can see on the right, but for now i assume it's just noise.

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:


@botje11 Just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to not only show your projections, but always explain WHY you think they will play out and your opinions. Anyone can do TA, but it takes real talent to see the big picture and be able to confidently follow through on it and make changes as the story unfolds.
Always look forward to your posts, even if I'm not trading in that particular market! Keep it up! :)
+8 Reply
botje11 Polarizer
@Polarizer, Thank you, that means a lot and is motivating to see that it gets noticed that i do that extra here. Sometimes it takes me a few hours to write a good analysis, in language that (hopefully) everyone understand. Not just throwing lines around, but really explaining what is going on so you guys can start to learn that as well.
Hey, thank you for the analysis. Can you please tell me what you think about this:
+6 Reply
botje11 alpy07
@alpy07, That is a likely scenario as well. The first part, drop to 4800ish and then up again is exactly what i think as well. The difference is, after that, i expect to see another rally, you show a possible double top. Nice work :)
+6 Reply
alpy07 botje11
@botje11, yes, we think alile up to that point, thank you very much for feedback :peace:
alpy07 alpy07
@alpy07, alike*
botje11 alpy07
@alpy07, your welcome :)
+1 Reply
I am a long term investor but after I see @botje11 s post. I say to myself that "Am I idiot? why should not I sell my coins when btc is at 5200 and buy back at 4800?" and then I couldn't do it all of my portfolio because my hands were shaking :) but did half of it :D
+4 Reply
gencdahi Zenter
@Zenter, I definitely aggree with you
+1 Reply
botje11 Zenter
@Zenter, haha, sometimes I talk about NOT mixing up strategies, this is an example of that. When being in long term, you should not close and buy back IMO. You risk missing a rally. What I do with my VIPs when being long, when I think we can make a drop last from the 5400, we hedge our long position. Same effect as selling and buying back. But it’s different in real life. Let’s say we squeeze up, stop of hedge gets hit and the long keeps running. When selling long, it’s almost sure you will wait for a little correction again to get in, what I’d that doesn’t happen
+1 Reply
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