MAGICMARK

BTC ... the bears doing it smart this time...

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Back on June 23rd ... the bears allowed BTC to find relief at 6200 only for 1 day, and then tried taking it down. That caused them to lose the battle. Let me explain ... we are all dealing with people, who have emotions ... fear, fomo, greed, etc. After pushing BTC down to 6k, many people took profit on shorts and some even longed ... after 1 day of consolidation at 6.2k do you think people were ready to exit longs or renter shorts at that low of an entry??? Not a chance. They tried to get it, aiming for 5k or lower, and they only managed 5.755k. It was obvious they would fail.

That cost them 3 months. They needed to let it go up, so they could have another change at 5k ... and here it is. Now they are doing it right ... holding it here at 6200 to 6400. They have been adding buy walls at 6200 and sell walls at 6400, keeping it in range for over 1 week, and maybe it will be here for much longer. This will cause longs to become exhausted and nervous ... and prepare their emotions for an easier exit. Shorts will begin to add to their confidence and look to enter new shorts at the low price of 6400. All they need is 2 things ... enough time to dissipate hope of a rally, and a catalyst (bad news like ETF denied/delayed, major exchange hack?). A pitchfork I drew suggests we could go sideways for a while, with a bearish tendency.

I see some telegram groups calling for longs on ALTS. Yes, for sure these prices are attractive ... major discount at the moment, but if BTC drops, they'll bleed to death. Could ETH reach $110 ... it probably will if BTC goes to 5k now. So be careful.

Now, I try and never only speak one direction. It is possible that BTC rallies up and the key targets are 6600, 6800 and I see the top at 7200 if we go up in 1 straight line (which we won't). The 1 day ichi cloud calls for this, and I think the highest probability target on a rally is around 6800 - 6900. This will test the top of the big triangle at play (see purple triangle) at around the time I expect it to be tested.

I don't know which game the market will play ... will they take it down soon to a new bottom, this is my slightly higher probability, given the sentiment. This is the red line on my chart ... but the blue line is possible too. I really do think the way we go is dependent on the expected news from SEC an the CBOE ETF at end September ... will it be good (approved) or bad (delay/declined)? For now, this is a no trade zone for me ... I have shorts waiting to trigger higher and longs waiting to trigger much lower. Patience is key ... please do not get bored and make a mistake ... I think that's exactly the trap they want us to fall into.

Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.

Do not use this info for trading/investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.

Comment: Just some minor adjustments, looking at key fibo's more closely. A break of 6650 seems to be the more important number for me right now. No doubt bulls did well to push out of the 6200 to 6400 zone ... but much resistance lies ahead. Sell orders are stacking at 6600. If they break 6650, then 6900 is the next big resistance. After that, the larger triangle has a top at around 7200 right now ... but we won't get there in one line, so by the time we intersect it we will be lower. Will keep adjusting as data comes in.

Comment: Bears are attempting to paint that red wave now ... get you're popcorn, stand back and watch. Let's see if they have enough power ... observe how the market reacts. Watch the momentum.

Comment: Some adjustments folks. The bears are having a hard time breaking the big triangle. I suspect we need news to catalyze the price in one direction or the other. I'm sensing that if it falls, it won't be as hard as I originally thought. Red wave has been shortened. This doesn't mean that's the absolute bottom ... but for this wave, the likely bottom now adjusted to 5400. Strange after 6 months, back in March, I came up with a BTC bottom of 5400 ...

Don't forget the blue wave ... good news will make it happen, we still have big support between 5750 and 6200.

Comment: OK, so interesting candle there. Down 300 points, up 450 points ... this does not invalidate either the red or blue waves (believe it or not), but it does provide clarity. So I've made some adjustments. I think we are doing a big ABCDE wave, and we are about to go to 6700 to 6900 territory. I have short orders sitting there.

On the other hand, this move up has not invalidated the red wave down (not yet, if it goes to 6600, it does).

So, given this is still in the range of death ... 6100 to 6500, I suggest being patient to see what the market does.

Comment: Hello everyone, back from a road trip today. Since then I had a short order fill at 6800, and just closed that at 6400. There is a buy wall setup at 6350 so assuming that is real, the whales won't let it go down much further.

Looking at movements, ichi cloud, and wave analysis, this is what I'm expecting over the next few days. Pay attention to the orange ABCDE triangle wave I've drawn ... this is representative of the undecided market, and takes us to D DAY, the day SEC provides some direction on the CBOE ETF. I suspect it will be a delay. We have time for one more movement up, and I see a lot of resistance at 6800 (ichi, log trend lines, previous high). For those that want to understand this better, the ABCDE triangle wave ... if you look at each individual wave (and we are forming D now), they are typically made up of an ABC subwave. So that's why I expect this D wave to be an ABC wave (see blue wave). Then we form wave E, which can be an impulse and I suspect down (due to bad news or delay with CBOE ETF). That can take use down to the 5k territory. So right now my adjusted bottom target is 5k to 5.4k. However, if CBOE ETF is good news, then wave E can form a bear trap (small dump before the news comes out), complete a truncated wave E, and then shoot up.

So we discussed this crazy price action yesterday and then at almost the same time, it happens today. We probably moved up about 9000 BTC yesterday on Bfx alone. Then today it looks like about another 3000. It appears that lots of long stops were triggered both yesterday and today with the drop immediately preceding the pump. Please correct me if I'm not reading this right but, if this person decides to dump that BTC tomorrow, 12000 BTC would move price $600+ in minutes because a lot of those longs have been eliminated temporarily. If he first pushes price up above 6600, a whole lot of shorts would trigger before that fall, compounding it.

Thoughts?
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MAGICMARK Jeff_Cryptopop
@Jeff_Cryptopop, Jeff, it depends on where those short stops are ... I have been waiting for 3 weeks for that short squeeze, and it hasn't happened. Yes we got a rally to 6800 and that was people with tight stops to close shorts, but the shorts volume didn't drop that much. They only dropped in the past few days, closing to take profit at 6400. I suspect the shorts have stops higher up maybe 7500?? But the volume of shorts is down now. 28k vs. high of 40k. So short squeeze off the table again.

Coincidentally, there is a buy wall (see tensorcharts.com) at 6350 ... so controlled up. I am anticipating it will go back up to 6800ish, and then down. Unless they pull that buy wall ... that will be a sign that they want it to crash.

In the end, to add to the confusion, whales are clearly coordinating a strike with news ... we have Mt. Gox court meeting ... haven't heard anything yet ... and then CBOE ETF on Sunday ... next 7 days will be interesting. I'm thinking they have kept it sideways for 3 weeks and wait for that news. I am leaning more towards bad news and the whales let it drop hard, accumulate for a while, and then they are done ...
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I also have short orders, the price will down to 5900 eventually. The price goes dramatically might due to the big shorts finish his order, then find an opportunity to open long order.
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Two scenarios come to mind with this big 9/19 swing, one with intentional manipulation (fishing for stops, long and short), one not. All of these set aside any wave counts. You're much more adept at that than I am anyhow.

The unintentional scenario is that we see that there was a systematic selloff going on when both Bitfinex and Bitstamp bottomed at 6100 even. (Coinbase missed it by a few bucks.) I say bottomed because it may have gone further but was interrupted by a big wallet which had a big long order sitting right on 6100 that triggered. However, note that even with that kind of power to reverse the trend, it couldn't break 6550. You can see an almost immediate correction down begin as there was no volume to follow up such a move. Typically those moves by small parties create big divergences. While we indeed could move up, I would expect that the market sentiment is still the same as it was just before that pump and will sell its way back down over the next 12 hours or so. Well, given the slow grind it could be a couple of days. Thoughts?
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MAGICMARK Jeff_Cryptopop
@Jeff_Cryptopop, I learned something important from that swing ... it took 6500 BTC on bitfinex to move the price 330 points. It took 8900 BTC on bitfinex to move the price back up 430 points. That means 20 BTC per point up or down ... so a short squeeze is just as effective as a long squeeze right here. Here's what surprised me ... Bitfinex longs are at close to an all time high, in fact on that move, short volume spiked up to 40.3k compared to an all time high of 40.7k. One thing I have on the table is a huge short squeeze ... and now I don't think that's going to happen. Whenever we get these "acid tests" so I call them, I calculate how many BTC it took to take the price up and down 1 point. Sometimes that makes it obvious which is the more profitable direction. Here it just proved that shorts are no more exposed than longs.

So in terms of the direction ... I get what you are saying, and no doubt someone is propping this up, but the bullish reactivation ... that will now cast some doubt for anyone planning to short at 6.2k or so. I suspect the bulls might get some more fuel out of this, and go up to 6700/6800 ... it's making a big triangle wave. This makes sense because this has all been sideways and waiting for news ... next week though, starting Sep 21 we have our first ETF decision ... that will catalyze the direction for sure.
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@MAGICMARK, *writes down 20BTC = 1 point move.* Thanks for that great observationon the triangle wave as well. haha. Well I was happy to see it do something. I find this sideways stuff between 6 and 7 to be quite boring, but I don't let myself get antsy.
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MAGICMARK Jeff_Cryptopop
@Jeff_Cryptopop, oh that is the trick ... if you can be patient, it's better than guessing. A lot of people are just guessing right now. Only some real trade pros I know are scalping and making money. I don't have the time to watch it every minute. I'll stick to swings ... 5800 and 6800 are interesting levels for me right now.
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@MAGICMARK, So what was the long volume at the time of this crazy move?
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I believe this is the most accurate chart for possible scenarios
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MAGICMARK Msparky
@Msparky, thank you. There is some good TA out there, for sure. But there's a lot of nonsense too.
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