That cost them 3 months. They needed to let it go up, so they could have another change at 5k ... and here it is. Now they are doing it right ... holding it here at 6200 to 6400. They have been adding buy walls at 6200 and sell walls at 6400, keeping it in range for over 1 week, and maybe it will be here for much longer. This will cause longs to become exhausted and nervous ... and prepare their emotions for an easier exit. Shorts will begin to add to their confidence and look to enter new shorts at the low price of 6400. All they need is 2 things ... enough time to dissipate hope of a rally, and a catalyst (bad news like denied/delayed, major exchange hack?). A I drew suggests we could go sideways for a while, with a tendency.
I see some telegram groups calling for longs on ALTS. Yes, for sure these prices are attractive ... major discount at the moment, but if BTC drops, they'll bleed to death. Could ETH reach $110 ... it probably will if BTC goes to 5k now. So be careful.
Now, I try and never only speak one direction. It is possible that BTC rallies up and the key targets are 6600, 6800 and I see the top at 7200 if we go up in 1 straight line (which we won't). The 1 day ichi cloud calls for this, and I think the highest probability target on a rally is around 6800 - 6900. This will test the top of the big triangle at play (see purple triangle) at around the time I expect it to be tested.
I don't know which game the market will play ... will they take it down soon to a new bottom, this is my slightly higher probability, given the sentiment. This is the red line on my chart ... but the blue line is possible too. I really do think the way we go is dependent on the expected news from SEC an the CBOE at end September ... will it be good (approved) or bad (delay/declined)? For now, this is a no trade zone for me ... I have shorts waiting to trigger higher and longs waiting to trigger much lower. Patience is key ... please do not get bored and make a mistake ... I think that's exactly the trap they want us to fall into.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for trading/investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
Don't forget the blue wave ... good news will make it happen, we still have big support between 5750 and 6200.
On the other hand, this move up has not invalidated the red wave down (not yet, if it goes to 6600, it does).
So, given this is still in the range of death ... 6100 to 6500, I suggest being patient to see what the market does.
Looking at movements, ichi cloud, and wave analysis, this is what I'm expecting over the next few days. Pay attention to the orange ABCDE triangle wave I've drawn ... this is representative of the undecided market, and takes us to D DAY, the day SEC provides some direction on the CBOE ETF. I suspect it will be a delay. We have time for one more movement up, and I see a lot of resistance at 6800 (ichi, log trend lines, previous high). For those that want to understand this better, the ABCDE triangle wave ... if you look at each individual wave (and we are forming D now), they are typically made up of an ABC subwave. So that's why I expect this D wave to be an ABC wave (see blue wave). Then we form wave E, which can be an impulse and I suspect down (due to bad news or delay with CBOE ETF). That can take use down to the 5k territory. So right now my adjusted bottom target is 5k to 5.4k. However, if CBOE ETF is good news, then wave E can form a bear trap (small dump before the news comes out), complete a truncated wave E, and then shoot up.
Coincidentally, there is a buy wall (see tensorcharts.com) at 6350 ... so controlled up. I am anticipating it will go back up to 6800ish, and then down. Unless they pull that buy wall ... that will be a sign that they want it to crash.
In the end, to add to the confusion, whales are clearly coordinating a strike with news ... we have Mt. Gox court meeting ... haven't heard anything yet ... and then CBOE ETF on Sunday ... next 7 days will be interesting. I'm thinking they have kept it sideways for 3 weeks and wait for that news. I am leaning more towards bad news and the whales let it drop hard, accumulate for a while, and then they are done ...
The unintentional scenario is that we see that there was a systematic selloff going on when both Bitfinex and Bitstamp bottomed at 6100 even. (Coinbase missed it by a few bucks.) I say bottomed because it may have gone further but was interrupted by a big wallet which had a big long order sitting right on 6100 that triggered. However, note that even with that kind of power to reverse the trend, it couldn't break 6550. You can see an almost immediate correction down begin as there was no volume to follow up such a move. Typically those moves by small parties create big divergences. While we indeed could move up, I would expect that the market sentiment is still the same as it was just before that pump and will sell its way back down over the next 12 hours or so. Well, given the slow grind it could be a couple of days. Thoughts?
So in terms of the direction ... I get what you are saying, and no doubt someone is propping this up, but the bullish reactivation ... that will now cast some doubt for anyone planning to short at 6.2k or so. I suspect the bulls might get some more fuel out of this, and go up to 6700/6800 ... it's making a big triangle wave. This makes sense because this has all been sideways and waiting for news ... next week though, starting Sep 21 we have our first ETF decision ... that will catalyze the direction for sure.