Well, since publishing my last idea, we have confirmation ... we are not in a triangle wave. This has simplified things, and it is likely we are in wave 5 ... the final, darkest hour for BTC. Of course everyone is asking, where is the bottom. I've read 6k, 4k, 3k, and even 1k in the blogs.
Could any of these be discarded? NO! Why? Because it is BTC, and there are too many variables for any one human being to be able to draw a definitive line.
However, let's not give up on TA just yet! Look above, I've spent some time on this chart. The grand wave is shown in red, and the question is where will point (5) stop. The purple wave is our current mini-wave, defining grand wave 5. Grand wave point (5) is dependent
on the current mini-wave 4 recovery. To help, and because I've seen predictions as low as $1000 BTC, as well as taking all data into consideration for the past year, I've drawn Fibs from the low of $888 BTC, established on March 25, 2017 and the All-Time-High close to $20,000. I've also established some potential support lines, back to that time frame, within the probable range of the wave 5 bottom.
Technically, mini-wave (purple) 4 should not go into mini-wave (purple) 1 territory, but it's not impossible. In fact if you look at grand wave (red) 4, it does go into grand wave (red) 1 territory. So two potential points defining the range for the mini-wave 4 end point. Option (4a) is stopping at the bottom of mini-wave 1. Option (4b) stops at the All-Time-High Trend Line 2. By the way, (4b) also happens to be around the 0.618 Fib retracement, and I'd say that is interesting. I'm doubtful wave 4 could go any higher. So really, mini-wave 4's likely range is $7200 to $8200. Then down.
The second thing we need to note is that mini-wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Mini-wave 1 is already very long, so mini-wave 5 needs to be the shortest. This is a pretty hard-core rule for Elliot Wave. Mini-wave 3 was a drop of approximately 2600 points. So, if we take 2600 points as the max for the mini-wave 5 drop, and we hypothesize that mini-wave 4 will stop between $7200 and $8200, we can define the likely target range for the mini-wave 5 and grand-wave 5 end point (they will coincide). The boxes I've drawn are essentially the target range for wave 5, with the top being defined as the bottom of mini-wave 3 as a minimum retracement, and the bottom of the top box being mini-wave 4b top less $2600, and the lower box being mini-wave 4a top less $2600. If this sounds confusing, slow down, read this carefully, until it makes sense.
Within those defined boxes, I've drawn support lines that are likely meaningful, and selected the lines that fall within those boxes. If mini-wave 4 goes to point (4b, approx $8200), then we will likely have a $6k double bottom bounce (perhaps with a small extension below $6k). If mini-wave 4 stops at point (4a, approx $7200) then we will likely go to the $4.9k level. After that, if Elliot Theory applies, we should start a GRAND RECOVERY!
Could any of these be discarded? NO! Why? Because it is BTC, and there are too many variables for any one human being to be able to draw a definitive line.
However, let's not give up on TA just yet! Look above, I've spent some time on this chart. The grand wave is shown in red, and the question is where will point (5) stop. The purple wave is our current mini-wave, defining grand wave 5. Grand wave point (5) is dependent
on the current mini-wave 4 recovery. To help, and because I've seen predictions as low as $1000 BTC, as well as taking all data into consideration for the past year, I've drawn Fibs from the low of $888 BTC, established on March 25, 2017 and the All-Time-High close to $20,000. I've also established some potential support lines, back to that time frame, within the probable range of the wave 5 bottom.
Technically, mini-wave (purple) 4 should not go into mini-wave (purple) 1 territory, but it's not impossible. In fact if you look at grand wave (red) 4, it does go into grand wave (red) 1 territory. So two potential points defining the range for the mini-wave 4 end point. Option (4a) is stopping at the bottom of mini-wave 1. Option (4b) stops at the All-Time-High Trend Line 2. By the way, (4b) also happens to be around the 0.618 Fib retracement, and I'd say that is interesting. I'm doubtful wave 4 could go any higher. So really, mini-wave 4's likely range is $7200 to $8200. Then down.
The second thing we need to note is that mini-wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Mini-wave 1 is already very long, so mini-wave 5 needs to be the shortest. This is a pretty hard-core rule for Elliot Wave. Mini-wave 3 was a drop of approximately 2600 points. So, if we take 2600 points as the max for the mini-wave 5 drop, and we hypothesize that mini-wave 4 will stop between $7200 and $8200, we can define the likely target range for the mini-wave 5 and grand-wave 5 end point (they will coincide). The boxes I've drawn are essentially the target range for wave 5, with the top being defined as the bottom of mini-wave 3 as a minimum retracement, and the bottom of the top box being mini-wave 4b top less $2600, and the lower box being mini-wave 4a top less $2600. If this sounds confusing, slow down, read this carefully, until it makes sense.
Within those defined boxes, I've drawn support lines that are likely meaningful, and selected the lines that fall within those boxes. If mini-wave 4 goes to point (4b, approx $8200), then we will likely have a $6k double bottom bounce (perhaps with a small extension below $6k). If mini-wave 4 stops at point (4a, approx $7200) then we will likely go to the $4.9k level. After that, if Elliot Theory applies, we should start a GRAND RECOVERY!
Comment:
By the way, 5.4k is a support level too, so it's possible to get a bounce there. 4.9k happens to be the 0.786 Fib retracement from the $888 BTC low, so I think that's a support with more gravity!
Comment:
Some have asked aren't we still in wave 3? Very possible, given this "wave 4" is so weak. We'll know soon enough. If this is a continuation of wave 3, I'd expect us to go to 4.5k, then up, and that puts 3k definitely into the probability book!
As always do not rely on this TA for investment decisions, for educational purposes only.