CarpeMomentum

Bitcoin 30% correction - Time to Take Profit? Target $40k

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been performing very well for four (4) weeks.
With $60k being a pretty tough nut to crack I expect Bitcoin will take another breather next week and retrace.
Have a look at the possible downward trend scenario to about $40.5k over the next weeks.
The fib retracements match very nicely the possible landing zones. The 61.8 fib. retracement is a perfect 30% retracement scenario.
Why 30%? If you analyze crypto assets you notice that 30% corrections are often a natural process and are often met very precisely (more on that in another idea).
Bitcoin had such a throwback in January (remember?) 2021.

If you don't believe that Bitcoin is about to trace back do you favor another uptrend to above $60k?
What is the probability? The market (especially the big boys) is hungry for cheap BTC so there is a lot of pressure and it is easier to bet against an asset that just had a magnificent 4 week bull run.

Also Bitcoin seems to be somewhat constrained by the logarithmic growth channel.
Meaning that if Bitcoin breaks $60k and then approaches $70k a longer stretch down and sideways is either 100% guaranteed for Bitcoin or it would have to break a very strong technical pattern. (more on that in another idea)

So my bets are on other crypto currencies at the moment. Like e.g. CAKE and XVS. The Top 10 seems overall very overheated.
ETH is stumbling over its own ridiculous high network fees (which gives CAKE and XVS great growth potential).
And the others in the Top 10 also had tremendous runs.

Long story short. Whatever your strategy with Bitcoin ( BTC ) watch out for a potential retracement this coming week or thereafter.

PS Go ahead and stretch the chart up/down and sideways to zoom in and out.
The upper Bollinger Band level is a good indicator for failing support. So if BTC would break that level downwards it is a clear signal it will go down further.

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Comment:
another prediction so far on the mark.

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