Hello Everyone!
Well ... these BTC movements have allowed me to go outside and enjoy the good weather. Ha!
I'd like to point out a new trend line I just discovered ... see the black trend line. I've placed black markers where we have direct hits, and purple markers where we have soft hits (almost got there). Interesting eh?
I wouldn't say this is the be all and end all of trend lines, but in the short term it seems to be dictating the highest price BTC can achieve!
Some other interesting features ... if we look locally now (sorry I know the chart is zoomed out, but pay attention to after we hit the 6.1k current bottom. We have been bouncing around in a parallel channel ... that channel is about to confront a log trend line (one of the trends I've drawn from the all time high, see dashed green line). The black trend line is squeezing BTC in between the lower parallel of this channel and the dashed green log trend line. Somethings got to give in the next few days ... will it be this weekend or Monday when Asian markets open?
Fractal analysis completed by some incredible members of my TA group has shown we expect one more retest of the top .... perhaps it will hit that black trend line ... and then down. The down part is hard to figure out just how low. Two schools of thought here ... one outcome is a double bottom (6100/6200 ... remember there's a rising trend line that touches the 6k bottom months ago, and now the 6.1k bottom, which can be touched ... for confirmation, so the correction could end in the 62XX level). The second is that we crack 6k, with another massive impulse wave ... if we crack 6k ... I believe there is a high probability of hitting 5.4k. Below that, the key levels are 5k and 4.5k, according to my analysis.
One thing is certain ... we need something big to shake us out of this bear market ... or we need LOTS of time ... In the big picture I think we need to either go to 2.9k now to hit a hard trend line on the weekly log scale ... with a MASSIVE bounce up, or we are going to slowly bleed over months and months and months until we hit that same weekly log trend line at around 4.5k to 5k. I am hoping for volatility.
You may ask, why do I put this down as a break down rather than a break up? It might break up ... we have to see the possibilities, it is what I preach. But consider we had two GREAT news reports ... SEC declares ETH as not a security, and tether back by USD ... on a normal day I'm sure any one of those would have sent BTC up +1000 points ... not now ... both rallies fizzled after 200 points ... lame. The resistance above carries significant strength, we cannot deny this.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only!
Well ... these BTC movements have allowed me to go outside and enjoy the good weather. Ha!
I'd like to point out a new trend line I just discovered ... see the black trend line. I've placed black markers where we have direct hits, and purple markers where we have soft hits (almost got there). Interesting eh?
I wouldn't say this is the be all and end all of trend lines, but in the short term it seems to be dictating the highest price BTC can achieve!
Some other interesting features ... if we look locally now (sorry I know the chart is zoomed out, but pay attention to after we hit the 6.1k current bottom. We have been bouncing around in a parallel channel ... that channel is about to confront a log trend line (one of the trends I've drawn from the all time high, see dashed green line). The black trend line is squeezing BTC in between the lower parallel of this channel and the dashed green log trend line. Somethings got to give in the next few days ... will it be this weekend or Monday when Asian markets open?
Fractal analysis completed by some incredible members of my TA group has shown we expect one more retest of the top .... perhaps it will hit that black trend line ... and then down. The down part is hard to figure out just how low. Two schools of thought here ... one outcome is a double bottom (6100/6200 ... remember there's a rising trend line that touches the 6k bottom months ago, and now the 6.1k bottom, which can be touched ... for confirmation, so the correction could end in the 62XX level). The second is that we crack 6k, with another massive impulse wave ... if we crack 6k ... I believe there is a high probability of hitting 5.4k. Below that, the key levels are 5k and 4.5k, according to my analysis.
One thing is certain ... we need something big to shake us out of this bear market ... or we need LOTS of time ... In the big picture I think we need to either go to 2.9k now to hit a hard trend line on the weekly log scale ... with a MASSIVE bounce up, or we are going to slowly bleed over months and months and months until we hit that same weekly log trend line at around 4.5k to 5k. I am hoping for volatility.
You may ask, why do I put this down as a break down rather than a break up? It might break up ... we have to see the possibilities, it is what I preach. But consider we had two GREAT news reports ... SEC declares ETH as not a security, and tether back by USD ... on a normal day I'm sure any one of those would have sent BTC up +1000 points ... not now ... both rallies fizzled after 200 points ... lame. The resistance above carries significant strength, we cannot deny this.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only!
Comment:
I expect it to go down ... but if it does somehow many to get through this with sideways in time ... and we cross a descending log trend line from 9.99k top, through the local 7.7k peak around June 8-9 (it's shown as a light dashed green line on my chart), then we could get a nice rally like we did on April 11 - 12, because the same thing happened then.